Hot take: It's not all that unlikely for AZ to vote left of NV

[Chips]

Here's a comparison, I will show you all how much NV voted left of AZ every election since 2008.

Here we go...

2008: Nevada voted 21.01% to the left of Arizona
2012: Nevada voted 15.74% to the left of Arizona
2016: Nevada voted 5.92% to the left of Arizona
2020: Nevada voted 2.08% to the left of Arizona

As you can see, the gap between the two has narrowed rather significantly in every election since 2008. While this doesn't mean much per se, but it does show that the two have been swinging in opposite directions as of late and it's not that unbelievable that AZ could vote left of NV in 2024 if you look at the numbers.

If the gap goes down the same amount in 2024 as from 2016 to 2020, Arizona will be to the left of Nevada in 2024.

Of course, This is just a hot take of mine.

[Chips]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

[BlueSwan]

Well, you are right. Trends of the past does not predict the future, but it should certainly come as a surprise to nobody if AZ votes to the left of NV in 2024.

[E-Dawg]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

[Chips]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

True. It really isn't the most unrealistic scenario.

Here's a plausible scenario where Arizona is blue and Nevada decides the entire election:

[Tekken_Guy]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

That map is vort

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

True. It really isn't the most unrealistic scenario.

Here's a plausible scenario where Arizona is blue and Nevada decides the entire election:

If Republicans are winning all three of the Rust Belt Trio there is no way they’re losing NC.

[SnowLabrador]

I agree. Arizona is better educated, and they were only 2 points apart in 2020.

[Chips]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

That map is vort

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

True. It really isn't the most unrealistic scenario.

Here's a plausible scenario where Arizona is blue and Nevada decides the entire election:

If Republicans are winning all three of the Rust Belt Trio there is no way they’re losing NC.

If there's increased WWC turnout but also unexpectedly increased turnout of Blacks, It's at least feasible.

[David Hume]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

NV may be right to AZ, but it's highly unlikely to be right of NC.

[Xing]

I don't think it's that much of a hot take on Atlas. While it's not impossible, I think it's unlikely, since 2008 isn't really an apt comparison. Arizona was McCain's home state, and the housing crisis made Nevada vote much further left than it would have otherwise. There's not much upside for Republicans in Nevada, unless you buy into the "Latinos are destined to continually swing universally Republican" talking point, whereas there are retirees moving into Arizona, so Republicans could at least gain a bit from them or hold the line.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, very reasonable.

GA left of MI is also very underrated. 

[Independents against George Santos]

This possibility could be significant for 2024 in a number of ways. For example, Here's a 269-269 map that has Arizona blue but Nevada red.

It's scary how completely plausible this looks.

True. It really isn't the most unrealistic scenario.

Here's a plausible scenario where Arizona is blue and Nevada decides the entire election:

Hey, I've seen this one before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhel5lIVq0I

[MT Treasurer]

I agree that it’s not guaranteed to happen, but I have a suspicion that the unbearably overconfident "Titanium Lean D Nevada" takes are going to age about as well as the "Titanium Lean R Georgia" predictions before 2020 or the "Titanium Lean D Pennsylvania" obsession before 2016. It’s downright comical to act like the state wouldn’t even be a Tossup in a favorable year for the GOP.

Yes, it will mostly require gains with non-college-educated, unionized/working-class, and non-white voters in Clark County, but anyone who thinks that urban counties can’t possibly swing R with the right cultural message hasn’t been paying attention or is deliberately dismissing even the possibility of this happening. Unlike in AZ, there are very few suburban countertrends to save Democrats here if they lose ground with the aforementioned groups.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't voting to right of nation and MI, WI and PA are more D friendly in Prez Elections, if D's lose anyone of them it's most likely MI, not all three, Synder did well in 2010/2014

[President Johnson]

I don't think it will happen, though it's definitely very possible. Gut feeling says this thread will be bumped in November/December 2024 with the comment: "Congrats, Gentleman. You called it."