While I agree with the consensus that DeSantis should be favored, A lot of people forget that not only did DeSantis have low approvals throughout much of last year, Fried has proven herself capable to FL voters. (Despite winning her race by just 0.08%) This could prove to be a closer race than many think.
Scott had low approvals throughout much of his term & Bill Nelson had previously proven himself capable to FL voters, but look at how that turned out for the latter in a literal blue-wave year. I don't doubt that there will be a pervasive horse-race narrative forced upon this race, but I have no faith whatsoever in the final result - a DeSantis win - being relatively close.
That's fair. I was just raising the point that Fried has proven herself to be able to win statewide in FL (even if it was by a paper-thin margin) and DeSantis approval ratings while pretty good now have not been super great over the last year and could go down another downward spiral. I'll say DeSantis beats Fried by a margin slightly greater than Trump's win over Biden, 3.5%. But a 5-6% range win is entirely possible as well.
