Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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I still have McAuliffe+4 and it could very well be my final prediction.

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Bold prediction?

Herring and Ayala both underperform McAuliffe. If the gubernatorial race is within 2 points I think Herring loses and Ayala could easily lose.

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Quinnipiac poll prediction: McAuliffe+2

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I hope there's one thing we can collectively agree on.

This has been a very weird race. Everything about it from the candidates to the things going on on the ground right now have been a weird experience and a weird election to follow. That said, I think the general bizarreness of the election has made it more fun to follow at the same time.

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Let's just put the 2017 thing to bed once and for all.

This was the polling in 2017



This is the polling in 2021



Far more consistent (with Fox exception), more narrow, and less undecideds. And more importantly, the fundamentals of the race support a narrow McAuliffe win, rather than a Biden-esque one.

I wouldn't count the chickens before they hatch but I agree that there's probably a better chance of Youngkin winning than McAuliffe winning by Northam/Biden margins.

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I have a question. If McAuliffe does lose, what do you think will have been the biggest reasons as to why he lost?

Here's my 5 reasons as to why McAuliffe might lose.

#1. Biden's unpopularity.

It can definitely be said that Biden is in a much weaker position in terms of his approval ratings than he was even three short months ago. Biden is underwater in several Virginia polls as well which might indicate Biden's national popularity has carried over to The Old Dominion State. If McAuliffe loses, part of that may very well be because Youngkin was able to tie him to Biden successfully.

#2. Youngkin has been a relatively decent candidate and has run a good campaign for a Republican in Virginia.

If Amanda Chase was the GOP nominee, we would likely not be having discussions about this race being close. Youngkin became the nominee though and he can be stated to have done a relatively decent job at appealing to both Trumpers by advocating for many of Trump's ideas and moderate Republicans/independents by speaking in at least a slightly more reserved tone on the campaign trail.

#3. Youngkin might win out on the education issue.

The issue of education has arguably become the biggest issue of this race and Youngkin has been doing fairly well on the issue of education in most polls. If more voters end up trusting Youngkin more than McAuliffe on election day on the issue of education, that should bode well for his chances.

#4. Turnout

If Youngkin wins, It may be partly so due to having a relatively high rural turnout with McAuliffe having a relatively lackluster turnout in urban areas and suburbs.

#5. McAuliffe might simply be a rather lackluster candidate.

While yes, McAuliffe was previously governor. It can be argued that he doesn't have that much of enthusiastic supporters. The same arguably cannot be said for Youngkin who definitely seems to have a pretty loud and energetic base of support. In this sense, it could be seen as a mini-2016 presidential election. Clinton was leading in most of the polls but suffered from a lackluster turnout while Trump's base was rather energetic for him and if McAuliffe loses, I'm sure these comparisons might well be brought up.

If McAuliffe does lose, I think it will have been due to a combination of these five factors.

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Wow, a Democratic staffer has made his Twitter private after Twitter sleuths noticed he bears a striking resemblance to one of the tiki torch guys

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454148274319933448

Alternatively, Trump supporters were sending him death threats so he went on private.

Yes, I agree.  He's been accused of something and is probably getting a lot of heat.  It's pretty reasonable that he'd go private whether or not he did it.

Now he may or may not be the guy in the picture but him going private is not proof of anything because he has reason to do it whether or not he is guilty.

I agree with this. Still though, the fact that he did go private definitely won't sit well with some.

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What an odd situation...This just made an already bizarre election even weirder. I'm confused. Something fishy is going on with this but I'm not quite sure whether the Dems or the GOP look worse with this story.

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What an odd situation...This just made an already bizarre election even weirder. I'm confused. Something fishy is going on with this but I'm not quite sure whether the Dems or the GOP look worse with this story.

How could this story possibly make the Republican Party look bad?

If it's proven that the whole story of Democrats posing is a lie, that could make the GOP seem a lot less trustworthy.

I'm personally at a loss right now as to who's side of the story to believe. I have to wait for more details to make a proper judgement of the situation.

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What an odd situation...This just made an already bizarre election even weirder. I'm confused. Something fishy is going on with this but I'm not quite sure whether the Dems or the GOP look worse with this story.

How could this story possibly make the Republican Party look bad?

If it's proven that the whole story of Democrats posing is a lie, that could make the GOP seem a lot less trustworthy.

There is absolutely no indication of this

Maybe, but there's no truly definitive proof that this is a Democratic farce at the moment either.

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What an odd situation...This just made an already bizarre election even weirder. I'm confused. Something fishy is going on with this but I'm not quite sure whether the Dems or the GOP look worse with this story.

How could this story possibly make the Republican Party look bad?

If it's proven that the whole story of Democrats posing is a lie, that could make the GOP seem a lot less trustworthy.

I'm personally at a loss right now as to who's side of the story to believe. I have to wait for more details to make a proper judgement of the situation.

Honestly who even knows. This race has been so f**king bizarre already, it makes Florida elections look chill.
I wouldn’t be surprised by a Youngkin double digit win OR a TMac double digit win at this point.

Honestly, I said earlier today that I thought the race was fun to follow. After the events of today, I kind of wish for this silly thing to be done and over with now.

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Anyways to sum up my thoughts on this entire race, CHILL OUT!
Just accept this is a very uncertain race, there has been insufficient polling in a time when we don’t even know how accurate polling is given the 2020 failures and the failures of GA runoffs/CA recall. Let’s just appreciate what a ride this has been and not reach any conclusions until the votes are in. Early voting data looks better for Dems than polls show but that easily could be a mirage. Anyone saying “Youngkin will win” or “TMac will win” is rushing given what little good data we have. Fwiw I think TMac pulls it off, but I could easily be wrong and that’s okay.
I also would caution against using this race to predict midterms because the environment EASILY could be better OR worse.

THANK YOU! I agree with this wholeheartedly!

To add on to this, everyone just needs to stop treating this as if their prediction will be right or much more likely to be right than anyone else's. The fact is...No one knows 100% what will happen in an election and before we know the results, no one's predictions are truly much more likely to be right or wrong than anyone else's. If I end up being wrong one way of the other, I will own it up and admit I was wrong. It wouldn't be the first time and I know everyone has gotten plenty of races wrong.

If jimmie or Non Swing Voter end up being right, I will congratulate them for getting it more right than most and will own up for being wrong and everyone should do the same.

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What an odd situation...This just made an already bizarre election even weirder. I'm confused. Something fishy is going on with this but I'm not quite sure whether the Dems or the GOP look worse with this story.

How could this story possibly make the Republican Party look bad?

If it's proven that the whole story of Democrats posing is a lie, that could make the GOP seem a lot less trustworthy.

There is absolutely no indication of this

Maybe, but there's no truly definitive proof that this is a Democratic farce at the moment either.

You're completely right, black and female Democratic staffers suddenly being all in on white supremacy should be an ever growing concern for the American society. Or, you know, maybe admit that T-Mac made a terrible blunder here.

It's not even certain that any of these are members of the Democratic Party is what I was trying to say. I'm at a loss as to what to believe in this story still.

I will agree with everyone that IF this is true, it will be VERY damaging for McAuliffe to say the least.

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Because of course:

https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1454195114256093191

I sure hope this finally sorts it.

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I don't mean to insert myself...But will everyone calm down please?

There's no true defined limits to how often one can post here. Should there be? Maybe.

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So does anyone care about this LP stuff outside of right wing media?

Given the Lincoln Project is, by definition, a bunch of Republicans trying to make a home for themselves in liberal politics, I wouldn’t shocked if this is a set-up to generate a ‘scandal’ for Tmac

This is certainly a possibility that cannot be ruled out.

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Aye aye aye...Please, keep things civil everyone.

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Here's what I'll say today.

If McAuliffe wins, it will probably have officially certified Virginia's status as a solidly blue state.

If Youngkin wins, McAuliffe's campaign will surely go down as a perfect example for politicians on both sides on how NOT to run a campaign.

[Chips]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

I agree 100%. If he loses, it will go down as perhaps the best example of how a campaign should not be run. Period, End of story.

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Way too many conclusions are being drawn about this race on both sides.

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80-85% chance this race is within 3 points either way I feel. Certainly within the margin of error. I think if one predicts one side to win by 2-3 and the other side wins by 2-3. That's reasonable and not a prediction to be mocked of too much.

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If Youngkin wins, the narrative will be that Trump's endorsement helped and the GOP should embrace Trump.

If Youngkin loses, the narrative will be that he wasn't Trumpy enough and they need to go all in and support Trump.

Youngkin did not win a primary. It remains to be seen if the GOP nominees will look like in 2022.

I have different narratives.

If Youngkin wins: McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

If McAuliffe wins: McAuliffe winning even after all that has happened would pretty much secure the narrative that Virginia is a Democratic state at core.

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I'm just waiting for today's polls. If none of them show McAuliffe up by more than a point or two, That would make me pretty confident that the race will be within 3-4 points either way.

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Clinton-Biden-Youngkin voters will exist. The question is to what extent do they exist? Are they just a small group or a sizable minority? If Youngkin can capture even 5-10% of Clinton-Biden voters, that's probably a good sign for him.

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McAuliffe will go down as a perfect example of how to run a really terrible campaign.

Maybe? But it sure seems like "running a terrible campaign" coincides often with "running in an environment unfavorable to your party." Mainly because it looks like nothing you are doing is sticking or making a difference, but perhaps that's because it's beyond your control and you have to keep trying different things.

This isn't something I'm deciding new in 2021 - I first felt this way in 2014.

True. I'm not denying that Biden's unpopularity will have undoubtedly played some part in it if McAuliffe loses, but losing in a state won by your parties' presidential nominee by ten points a year ago takes at least a fairly sloppy campaign.

Plus, I think most can agree that the McAuliffe campaign HAS been pretty bad.