Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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Lead is down to roughly 91k.

97% Chesterfield 99% It's over

where did you get this Chesterfield number? the total votes there are still the same.

I think it's because they just began to realize the rest of the votes outstanding are absentees.

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Lead is down to roughly 91k.

97% Chesterfield 99% It's over

where did you get this Chesterfield number? the total votes there are still the same.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-virginia.html

nah, the vote totals are still the same, its an error.

It's likely that they realized the remaining votes out in Chesterfield are absentees.

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There's 180k absentees/mail-ins potentially in play. Youngkin has a 90k lead.

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They won't bother calling unless Youngkin's lead grows larger than the number of absentees still standing.

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McAuliffe just took the lead in Suffolk.

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Well, I wonder if Fox will call it.

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Fox called it. Everyone can say with 99.9999% certainty, Governor Youngkin!

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Well, If there's one takeaway...I can say it sure does look interesting to see Virginia painted red!

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Sears appears on track to win as well.

Miyares could fall to Herring but I think he's modestly favored too.

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We did it folks!

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Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

Well, good job on getting the race more right than many of us! You kept an open mind on this race all year and it proved warranted!

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Here, I'd like to give out 5 reasons why I think Youngkin was successful and McAuliffe was not.

No. 1: Biden

This may be cliché but with Biden at low approval ratings both nationwide and in the Commonwealth of Virginia, Republicans set out to make this a referendum on Biden. Youngkin appears to have been successfully able to tie McAuliffe to the failures of Biden, fair or not.

No. 2: Tradition

Aside from 2013, every Virginia gubernatorial election spanning back a good while has saw the state vote the opposite way as the party in the White House. This ties into the first point a bit, but it was something I felt like pointing out.

No. 3: Education

Education has proved to be a big issue in this race and Youngkin was simply able to beat McAuliffe on this issue. It seems as though McAuliffe's comment about not wanting parents to be able to control what teachers are teaching their kids greatly hurt him after all.

No. 4: Youngkin himself

Let's be real, although no one saw it coming for most of the race Youngkin has run a very, very good campaign. Being very good at seizing almost every opportunity that came his way. He did well enough in the debates it seemed and he really capitalized on the education issue and some other stuff.

No. 5: McAuliffe himself

I think most people can agree that McAuliffe ran a pitifully horrible campaign. He didn't speak out too much about his former term as governor, he tried to make the race about Trump and there were a few other mistakes. I know that he didn't have involvement in the tiki torches thing, but I honestly think he was still hurt by failing to address the allegations in a meaningful way. That just made him seem more untrustworthy in the eyes of many it seemed.

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https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

Oh wow! Yeah those parallels do seem to be lining up quite nicely...

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What happened with the HoD? I thought Dems were on track to split power last night, but now I’m reading Rs won 52 seats?? What changed overnight

In one of them, the Republican simply surged ahead at the last minute. In the other, A polling error was fixed allowing the Republican to win.

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I posted about this in another thread but I'll post here too. It appears as though there are 12 Biden-Youngkin jurisdictions.

Stafford
Lynchburg
Northampton
Chesterfield
James City
Hopewell
Surry
Chesapeake
Virginia Beach
Prince Edward
Montgomery
Radford

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NYT has finally called the Attorney General race for Jason Miyares. Making it a clean sweep for the GOP in Virginia along with a 52-48 GOP edge in the state's House of Delegates.

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Yoú have to be a serious D hack to spin this as "this doesn’t tell us anything about 2022." If Republicans lost a high-profile, high-turnout, nationalized gubernatorial campaign in Iowa (as well as all of their statewide offices, one of which was held by an incumbent) and were only three points away from an embarrassment in Tennessee, no one would pretend that this somehow wouldn’t foreshadow a disastrous environment for them in next year's midterm elections. Obviously federal races aren’t gubernatorial races, but there was a very clear pattern in those elections, and it’s very, very bad for Democrats across the board. You can maybe explain away the PA races (but even that would require letting the "D base turns out at a far higher rate than the GOP base, especially without Trump on the ballot" theory go), but if you had told anyone in January 2021 that Northern Virginia and New Jersey of all places would have such sizable swings to the Republicans, you would have been laughed off the forum and mocked relentlessly.

Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil was one of the only users who defended NSV, you know....

You'll find that I'm forgiving to a lot of people. Defending unpopular forumites from what I consider unfair attacks is a secondary hobby for me on this forum. But go off...
That is all.

Same with me.

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Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

I find Loudoun voting Gillespie in 2014 despite losing statewide more impressive.

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Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

I find Loudoun voting Gillespie in 2014 despite losing statewide more impressive.

He somehow squeezed enough out of rural areas.  It was remarkable.

Yes. Even more remarkable how it still wasn't quite enough for him to squeeze a win statewide.

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Question:  Has Non-Swing Voter apologized?  They really do owe a lot of posters an apology.  I don't mean that they should apologize for thinking McAuliffe would win, but they should definitely apologize for mocking other posters who suggested McAuliffe might not win, or that it might even be competitive.

He hasn't even been on for a few days now.

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6 subdivisions left that still have votes to count. None of them are big enough to make a huge difference.

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Spanberger will very likely be in trouble it seems.

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According to New York Times, every subdivision has 100% in.

Here's the probable final margins for all 3 races:

GOVERNOR:

Youngkin+63,480

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

Sears+50,076

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

Miyares+26,307

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BREAKING NEWS: INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT ALEX ASKEW HAS JUST CONCEDED THE VIRGINIA-85 HOUSE RACE TO REPUBLICAN KAREN GREENHALGH. GREENHALGH WAS CERTIFIED THE WINNER OF THIS RACE BY 115 VOTES. THIS MEANS THAT THE REPUBLICANS TAKE TAKEN OVER THE VIRGINIA HOUSE OF DELEGATES WITH AT LEAST 51 SEATS. ONE MORE RACE HAS YET TO BE FULLY DECIDED. VIRGINIA-91 WILL GO THROUGH A RECOUNT OF IT'S OWN NEXT WEEK. REPUBLICAN A.C CORDOZA LED INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT MARTHA MUGLER BY 94 VOTES ON THE INITIAL COUNT. IF THE RECOUND WINDS UP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S RECOUNT, CORDOZA SHOULD WIN BY AROUND 80-85 VOTES.

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I'm already curious to see his first approval poll but so far it's about what I was expecting. Democrats greatly opposing him and Republicans giving him their full support.

I'm from Ohio so I can't say I have a true valid opinion of him one way or the other.