Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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Perhaps some red areas are narrowing a bit.

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91% in and 118k votes. It's not impossible but I agree with The Washington Post. Youngkin is favored to win based on what's left but there's a small avenue for McAuliffe as well.

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Youngkin with 106k lead with 92% in. If it keeps going down by 10k until 100%, Youngkin will have a 26k vote victory which would be a win but close.

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94% in with 90k lead. It's going to be close at the end but I'm feeling Youngkin by 1-1.5 as of now.

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Youngkin with 106k lead with 92% in. If it keeps going down by 10k until 100%, Youngkin will have a 26k vote victory which would be a win but close.

What margin triggers a recount?

No automatic recounts. A candidate has the right to ask for a recount if it's within 1%. If it's under half a point you can ask for a recount and the state will pay for it. If it's between 0.5-1%, You can still ask for a recount but you have to pay for it yourself.

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63k.

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I think we might all have to collectively take back our predictions for Youngkin to win.

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58k with 95% in now.

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Back up to 86k now.

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WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

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WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

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I'm done here, I'll check by here before I go to work tomorrow.

Good night!

Also it's back down to 86K now

88k now. Also, over 95% is in.

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WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

Yeah.
If it counts for anything Arlington is only 98.3% in.
But yeah, this probably won't be called today.

Chesterfield is the bulk of what's out it seems. It's a 12 point Youngkin lead with 61% in. I think if McAuliffe is unable to get that margin down to 2-3, the race has a good chance of being over.

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WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

Yeah.
If it counts for anything Arlington is only 98.3% in.
But yeah, this probably won't be called today.

Chesterfield is the bulk of what's out it seems. It's a 12 point Youngkin lead with 61% in. I think if McAuliffe is unable to get that margin down to 2-3, the race has a good chance of being over I think.

Interesting. I didn't even notice that.
Yeah I don't think I can disagree too much with that, though I probably assume there to be more presumably pro-D votes left than you do. It's up to Chesterfield and them. And those votes will have to be counted.
We might have a recount.

It's possible. If I had to estimate the probabilities, I'd say Youngkin has roughly an 80-85% chance to win based on what's out which I think is fair.

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My Youngkin 1-2 point win prediction looking good.

I had McAuliffe up by 2. Still, that wouldn't be too terribly off despite me getting the winner wrong. I think it's probably Youngkin+1 or so when all the votes are counted.

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I hope NSV is alright. And I don't mean that in a spiteful way.

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I think we'll have to wait for the 39% of Chesterfield still out to start to come in to make an accurate assessment.

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Lead has expanded to 92k.

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Still no signs of a Chesterfield dump...

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I hope NSV is alright. And I don't mean that in a spiteful way.

Why would you feel someone who treated people like sh**t..?

     We should hope for the best for everyone. Even those who would not do the same for us.

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I hope NSV is alright. And I don't mean that in a spiteful way.

Why would you feel someone who treated people like sh**t..?

     We should hope for the best for everyone. Even those who would not do the same for us.

I would say charity in general is a virtue, not a vice.

Agree 100%.

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Huh? Now NYT is saying 94% is in rather that 95%+. It's been a rather steady 97-98k lead for Youngkin.

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There still might be some mail-in/early votes still unaccounted for. I think that's why they're holding off. 39% of Chesterfield is still out and that's probably where the bulk of the remaining non-mail/early vote is coming from.

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around 200k votes still left to count https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1455740028848640006?s=21

I'd say that looks like the odds are indeed tough but not impossible for McAuliffe.

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Lead is down to roughly 91k.