Biden and Ohio

[Chips]

He could win Ohio. Montgomery, Trumbull, Wood and Erie counties would probably flip back in a Biden win. Portage would probably be 50-50. Other typical swing counties like Ottawa, Ashtabula, Sandusky and Stark would stay Trump but would be closer.

[Chips]

He could win Ohio. Montgomery, Trumbull, Wood and Erie counties would probably flip back in a Biden win. Portage would probably be 50-50. Other typical swing counties like Ottawa, Ashtabula, Sandusky and Stark would stay Trump but would be closer.

What is the feel on the ground in Trumbull? Is Biden poised to make some gains here from 2016, even if not recovering to Obama numbers?

As someone from Trumbull, It could be 50-50 though I'm not sure exactly.

[Chips]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

[Chips]

It’s possible Biden can win but with no Senate race and being his 368-413th electoral vote, it’s not worth a large investment. Biden would have a different map than Obama, I suspect he’d win Hamilton by 20, Franklin by 35 and be within 3-4 in Delaware. Will do worse than Obama in southeastern Ohio even in a wave.

I'd estimate OH as his 351st or 352nd electoral vote.

[Chips]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

[Chips]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

[Chips]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.

[Chips]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.

As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.

Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.

How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.

[Chips]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

This aged surprisingly well.