Lugar wins 44 Lugar-28 Mourdock-27 Donnelly. Mourdock would lead and Lugar would be in second until the rape thing, and then Lugar surges to the lead. Donnelly is anonymous enough to be third the whole time.
I think NewYorkExpress's numbers make a lot more sense. There's no way that Lugar and Mourdock are getting a combined 72% of the vote.
Why not? Last time Lugar ran against a Democrat he got 67% - and I imagine a lot of voters who might otherwise back Donnelly strategically picking Lugar over Mourdock.
