When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Considering West Virginia 2018:

Joe Manchin won by 3.3%

CNN Exit polls had him up by 3% with White voters and up by 13% with non-White voters, which feels very, very, wrong.

Let's try like this:
The Black share of the electorate is likely slightly more than 3%
Other minorities are hard to guess, but probably have crept up to 2% even in a midterm environment.
I see no reason why Manchin should not have won the Black vote 90-10 or something.
Other minorities may be less D than in other states, but (exit poll garbage aside) I would think they were still at least 60-40 for Manchin.
This would mean Manchin netting 2.5% or so from Black voters and maybe close to 0.5% from other minorities.
This in turn would leave only 0.3% netted from White voters. Such a margin would get rounded to 0 very easily. And would effectively become 0 if we assume that other minorities were actually more Democratic.

So my look is that it is best to think of Manchin as having effectively tied the White vote in 2018.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Considering West Virginia 2018:

Joe Manchin won by 3.3%

CNN Exit polls had him up by 3% with White voters and up by 13% with non-White voters, which feels very, very, wrong.

Let's try like this:
The Black share of the electorate is likely slightly more than 3%
Other minorities are hard to guess, but probably have crept up to 2% even in a midterm environment.
I see no reason why Manchin should not have won the Black vote 90-10 or something.
Other minorities may be less D than in other states, but (exit poll garbage aside) I would think they were still at least 60-40 for Manchin.
This would mean Manchin netting 2.5% or so from Black voters and maybe close to 0.5% from other minorities.
This in turn would leave only 0.3% netted from White voters. Such a margin would get rounded to 0 very easily. And would effectively become 0 if we assume that other minorities were actually more Democratic.

So my look is that it is best to think of Manchin as having effectively tied the White vote in 2018.

West Virginia is a very white state, so the difference between its overall vote and the white vote isn't that substantial. I think Manchin eked out a very narrow plurality of white voters, carrying white women, while white men almost certainly went for Morrisey.

Yes, a very narrow plurality for Manchin is more likely than a very narrow plurality for Morrisey, but my point is that the difference is so small that it is best to think the White vote as a tie.


Of course Manchin won the White vote big in 2012 instead (so that would be the Democrats' last time in WV).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Considering West Virginia 2018:

Joe Manchin won by 3.3%

CNN Exit polls had him up by 3% with White voters and up by 13% with non-White voters, which feels very, very, wrong.

Let's try like this:
The Black share of the electorate is likely slightly more than 3%
Other minorities are hard to guess, but probably have crept up to 2% even in a midterm environment.
I see no reason why Manchin should not have won the Black vote 90-10 or something.
Other minorities may be less D than in other states, but (exit poll garbage aside) I would think they were still at least 60-40 for Manchin.
This would mean Manchin netting 2.5% or so from Black voters and maybe close to 0.5% from other minorities.
This in turn would leave only 0.3% netted from White voters. Such a margin would get rounded to 0 very easily. And would effectively become 0 if we assume that other minorities were actually more Democratic.

So my look is that it is best to think of Manchin as having effectively tied the White vote in 2018.

West Virginia is a very white state, so the difference between its overall vote and the white vote isn't that substantial. I think Manchin eked out a very narrow plurality of white voters, carrying white women, while white men almost certainly went for Morrisey.

Yes, a very narrow plurality for Manchin is more likely than a very narrow plurality for Morrisey, but my point is that the difference is so small that it is best to think the White vote as a tie.


Of course Manchin won the White vote big in 2012 instead (so that would be the Democrats' last time in WV).

2012 would be the last Senate race in which it can be said, with certainty, that white voters went Democratic in West Virginia, but I still think Manchin narrowly won them in 2018 as well. Now what are your thoughts about Georgia 2000? Given this county map:

Who do you think won the white vote that year? My gut says Miller, but ShadowoftheWave says that exit polls indicated Mattingly won them. If you'll notice, most of the heavily white counties in North Georgia voted for Miller.

The county map is pretty deceptive, it would make you think "oh sure of course Miller won White voters by a lot" when clearly it's not so.

Anyway, even imagining 25% of voters were Black and Miller won them by 80 percentage points (and I would think that both numbers may be a little low) already nets 20 percentage points to Miller.
If you consider that other people of colour were maybe 3-4% of the electorate and surely favored Miller, you have Miller losing the White vote.

I would think that what happened is that Miller's margin among White voters in the very White Northern Georgia rural counties and South Central Georgia rural counties were pretty much drowned out by the suburbs of Atlanta (counties of Forsyth/Cherokee/Gwinnett/Henry/Fayette etc.) and by the Black Belt some, where Whites are wealthier and were very Republican.