When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races?
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  When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races?
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Author Topic: When did Democrats last win the white vote in Senatorial races?  (Read 5552 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: July 31, 2018, 09:08:03 PM »

The question is as in the title. As people on here should be aware, the white vote has become more and more Republican at all levels in recent years. No Democrat has won the white vote in a presidential race since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964. And in the South, Democrats have lost white voters due to the Civil Rights Act and the Republican Revolution, among other developments (i.e. economic changes, demographic shifts, etc.) So, when was the last time Democrats won the white vote in a Senatorial race? In other words, when did a Democrat running in a particular state (i.e. Georgia, South Carolina) last win the white vote while running for the Senate in that state? Are there any guesses as to when it last happened for each state?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2018, 09:26:58 PM »

Alabama:  Shelby 1992
Arkansas:  Pryor 2008
Florida:  Graham 1998
Georgia:  Nunn 1990
Louisiana:  Breaux 1998
Mississippi:  Stennis 1982
North Carolina:  Morgan 1974
South Carolina:  Hollings 1986
Tennessee:  Gore 1990
Texas:  Bentsen 1988
Virginia:  Warner 2008

My best guesses for the former Confederacy
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2018, 09:35:02 PM »

Alabama:  Shelby 1992
Arkansas:  Pryor 2008
Florida:  Graham 1998
Georgia:  Nunn 1990
Louisiana:  Breaux 1998
Mississippi:  Stennis 1982
North Carolina:  Morgan 1974
South Carolina:  Hollings 1986
Tennessee:  Gore 1990
Texas:  Bentsen 1988
Virginia:  Warner 2008

My best guesses for the former Confederacy


These seem very reasonable, given that every Democratic Senator on this list won by double digits or in absolute landslides in those respective years.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2018, 09:36:13 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 03:24:25 PM by ERM64man »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level in California.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2018, 09:50:01 PM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

That makes sense, given that Harris won the vast majority of California's counties. As to Georgia, isn't it possible that Zell Miller in 2000 won the white vote? He defeated Mack Mattingly by 20 points, got 58% of the vote, and won 144 of Georgia's 154 counties.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2018, 10:02:24 PM »

Yes, Democrats did in fact win 100% of the white vote in the 2016 California senate race.
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Kodak
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2018, 11:28:52 PM »

My guesses for the northeast:

Connecticut: Blumenthal 2016
Maine: Mitchell 1988(!)
Massachusetts: Markey 2014
New Hampshire: Shaheen 2014
New Jersey: Menendez 2012
New York: Schumer 2016
Pennsylvania: Casey 2012
Rhode Island: Reed 2014
Vermont: Leahy 2016
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YE
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2018, 11:34:15 PM »

Oregon: Ron Wyden 2016
Nevada: Harry Reid 2004
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ERM64man
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2018, 11:35:37 PM »

Does Gavin Newsom win the white vote in CA-GOV?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2018, 11:54:52 PM »

Oregon: Ron Wyden 2016
Nevada: Harry Reid 2004

Do you have any guesses as to Colorado? Or any other Western states besides California?
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YE
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2018, 12:31:03 AM »

Oregon: Ron Wyden 2016
Nevada: Harry Reid 2004

Do you have any guesses as to Colorado? Or any other Western states besides California?

Colorado: either 2008 (Udall) or 1992 (Campbell)
New Mexico: Bingham 2006
Idaho: Frank Church 1974
Washington: Patty Murray 2016
Wyoming: Gale McGee 1970
Montana: Max Baucus 2008
South Dakota: Tim Johnson 2008
North Dakota: Byran Dorgan 2004
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2018, 12:35:26 AM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

Wow, what an accomplishment to win the white vote against another non white Democrat.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2018, 12:50:49 AM »

Ohio was 2006. Sherrod Brown actually won with white men that year.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2018, 12:59:14 AM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

That makes sense, given that Harris won the vast majority of California's counties. As to Georgia, isn't it possible that Zell Miller in 2000 won the white vote? He defeated Mack Mattingly by 20 points, got 58% of the vote, and won 144 of Georgia's 154 counties.

Oh yes, Miller definitely won the GA White vote in 2000.  I forgot about that one since it was a special election.  Nunn would have been the last in a regularly-scheduled election.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2018, 10:24:09 AM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.
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Checkard
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2018, 01:11:40 PM »

Alabama:  Shelby 1992
Arkansas:  Pryor 2008
Florida:  Graham 1998
Georgia:  Nunn 1990
Louisiana:  Breaux 1998
Mississippi:  Stennis 1982
North Carolina:  Morgan 1974
South Carolina:  Hollings 1986
Tennessee:  Gore 1990
Texas:  Bentsen 1988
Virginia:  Warner 2008

My best guesses for the former Confederacy


Florida is probably Bill Nelson 2006 (lost in 47-52 accord to exit polls in '12)
Georgia maybe in 2000??? Otherwise you're right.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2018, 01:26:15 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 01:41:59 PM by slightlyburnttoast »

Iowa: Harkin in 2008
Maine: King in 2012 if we’re counting him as a Democrat, otherwise Mitchell in 1988
Washington: Murray in 2016
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BlueDogs2020
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2018, 02:34:43 PM »

Definitely happened in WV 2012 and 2010
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2018, 03:23:28 PM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.
I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2018, 03:33:18 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 03:45:49 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

Here's a map of the above discussion if anybody wants to use it or fill it in (some states are still being debated I realize):

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2018, 03:43:32 PM »

Here's a map of the above discussion if anybody wants to use it or fill it in (some states are still being debated I realize):



Is Missouri color-coded as 2012? Is it possible that McCaskill won the white vote that year? She defeated Akin by 16 points and carried typically Republican suburbs around Kansas City and St. Louis.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2018, 03:47:08 PM »

Is Missouri color-coded as 2012? Is it possible that McCaskill won the white vote that year? She defeated Akin by 16 points and carried typically Republican suburbs around Kansas City and St. Louis.

Yes, 2012 is shaded for MO. McCaskill definitely won a plurality (if not a small majority).
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2018, 04:21:00 PM »

MI: Stabenow 2012 for sure; possibly Peters 2014.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2018, 06:16:22 PM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.
I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.

I am fairly certain you are wrong.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2018, 06:30:41 PM »

Kamala Harris won the white vote in California in 2016, along with Hillary Clinton at the Presidential level.

No, she didn't.
I meant that Clinton won the white vote in California, not nationally. Trump lost the white vote in California.
I am fairly certain you are wrong.

Actually, he is correct. According to the Sacramento Bee, Hillary Clinton won white voters in California by 5% in 2016: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article119870398.html.
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