Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Battista Minola 1616]

   What does M5S have to say about all this?  From the discussions it almost seems that they are a marginal player, which is ironic since they are the biggest party in the government. Is it that they are just trying to go along as long as possible and avoid new elections or rocking the boat because they know they will take huge losses in the next elections. 

I guess so. M5S has no incentive to see the government fall or a snap election happen, and in any case all the discourse seems to be incredibly personality driven, between the big ego of Renzi and the probably-bigger-than-he-lets-on ego of Conte.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

He absolutely has not done that. He has received Zingaretti in quality of President of Lazio (and later received Virginia Raggi, mayor of Rome) because it's tradition that he meet local administrators, and later, separately, has given an interview attacking "culture of waste" (where he has even tried to ground his appeals in a 'secular' form btw). I don't think I need to explain what Francis means by culture of waste.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

Is he? I can't find any news about it (and Italian news studiously cover everything the Pope says or does).

Isn't it beautiful to live in a papist theocracy

[Battista Minola 1616]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category.

Fair point - Renzi is arguably much more of a Blair

Renzi himself has mentioned (more than once I think) Tony Blair as an inspiration, so it makes perfect sense.

[Battista Minola 1616]

HOLY MARY!

Anyway, this is apparently the beginning of a government crisis, but the possible scenarios are theoretically endless, so don't run too fast.

Also lol, even Reuters calls Renzi's party tiny!

@Antonio moment for a thread title update I guess

[Battista Minola 1616]

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.

Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...

[Battista Minola 1616]

Not sure what Renzi thinks he will win with this, but whatever. He's not even popular. Is it true that Berlusconi could save Conte? I've read that somewhere.

It's theoretically possible, and it would be hilarious in a bad way, but I have no idea what Berlusconi actually thinks of all of this.

Well, if he somehow saves Conte during this awful period, we can probably say, very, very quietly: "Menomale che Silvio c'è"

Lmaooo

A very hilarious possibility would be a M5S-FI government; they likely have the numbers, and both parties stand to lose big from new elections. After the yellow-green government and the yellow-red government, in for the yellow-blue one? Realistically there's like <1% chance it happens, but who knows...

And any possibility of Renzi retracting his exit from the government? Or of a revolt in his caucus? It wouldn't be the first time.

Both things are possible, yes (I could actually argue that the former is even likely, but I won't do it). I don't think Renzi's endgame is really a snap election, and I don't know how other people in IV are assessing the situation.

[Battista Minola 1616]

[censored]

Seriously, why is he like this?

I mean, please, we can do without the extreme blasphemies...

Aside from that, I can relate to how you're feeling, and my only answer is that Renzi's ego can never be underestimated.

[Battista Minola 1616]

@Antonio moment for a thread title update I guess

Here you go.


I won't hazard a prediction otherwise. I have no idea what Renzi's endgame is supposed to be, but I doubt he'll be able to convince PD and M5S to get rid of Conte and agree to all his demands. Somehow I have trouble seeing it come to snap elections either - it would be pure insanity in the current situation. No idea what else can happen, but in Italian politics, you should often expect the unexpected.

Well you forgot that we are now in 2021, lol.


I totally agree. I've seen many people mention a hypothetical Conte III but no one has an idea about its supposed specifics. I haven't seen much talk of snap elections instead. Either way we're in for a wild ride.

[Battista Minola 1616]

[censored]

Translation?

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

[Battista Minola 1616]

[censored]

Translation?

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.

I feel like it's an Italian thing specifically. But tack50 feel free to illuminate me as to whether Spaniards curse with "D*** perro" or "M**** puta".

[Battista Minola 1616]

Alcibiades makes a great point that Catholic countries tend to have much more imaginative (and blasphemous) obscenities

Yeah, I guess that religion is just as important as culture or language when it comes to this. European French insults are kinda boring (they're pretty similar to English ones, actually)... but in Québec, until recently much more religious than France, you have such great things as tabarnak de criss d'ostie de câlisse (okay, no idea if anyone would actually say this exact phrase, but it's still beautiful).

Interestingly, in Italy people from Veneto are often stereotyped as the biggest serial blasphemers, and Veneto is one of the most religious regions.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Anyways, not to derail this thread into swearing in foreign languages: I read somewhere that the President of the Italian Supreme Court, Marta Cartabia, is rumored to be a potential successor for Conte as Prime Minister. Any infos on that?

What do you MEAN shifting the thread topic from "Renzi opens government crisis" to "Catholics have such imaginatively obscene ways to break the Second Commandment" just because I got mad at Clarko's language is derailing??

Anyway, personally I have never heard Marta Cartabia mentioned by anyone except by my father during his fever dreams of an institutional (and anti-M5S) government. Also, she is not a member of the Constitutional Court anymore.

[Battista Minola 1616]

BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

Wasn't that a more or less permanent headline for literally decades?

Conte II is the sixty-sixth government in 74.5 years of Italian Republic.
It is also the one-hundred-and-thirty-first in 160 years of united Italy, and the one-hundred-and-thirtieth in 139 years if one excludes the looong and, ahem, peculiar, Mussolini government.
So yeah it never was not a permanent headline (except during Fascism).

[Battista Minola 1616]

What are the reasons Italy's govts are so unstable over decades? Seems like this isn't the case elsewhere in Europe. Even in Spain, which is similar in terms of economic and social status. France obviously has a different governing system while Germany and Northern European countries are generally more stable.

A (for the most periods proportional) parliamentary system with lots of parties, almost never a strong bipolarism, all the clienterarism that ran within and around DC (and the Kingdom-era liberals for that matter) etc. etc. etc.
Compare Belgium (almost 50 governments since the end of WW2, and that's considering that they've had caretaker periods far longer than ours).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.

Yeah, the First Republic governments were fairly stable in terms of the policies they pursued, even if which specific people pursued them changed all the time. And this long-term policy stability allowed them to advance long-term projects in a way Italian governments have just stopped doing since the 1990s (the last one was really entry into the Euro).

What you both say is true, and, I mean, it's peak Italianness.
As Il Gattopardo says: If we want that everything stays the same, we need that everything change.

[Battista Minola 1616]

To be clear, the Chamber will vote on a motion of (no) confidence on Monday, and the Senate will do the same on Tuesday.

The government's numbers look worse in the Senate.

I have no expectations, I prefer to look forward to the change in U.S. government that will happen on Wednesday [and will be accompanied by a change in my display name].

[Battista Minola 1616]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

By now you should understand that "scratch a libertarian, a fascist bleeds" is a 100% accurate summary of jaichind's politics. He's the literal living embodiment of the phrase.

Aren’t Lega Nord quite economically interventionist too? I’d have thought Brothers of Italy would be more suitable for a fascist adjacent Libertarian.

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

In fairness to Lega Nord (never thought I'd say that); giving more autonomy to the regions isn't an inherently left wing or right wing policy

Their reasoning for the extra autonomy clearly is right wing though; "Roma ladrona" is fairly clear.

Boi, don't make me quote the sacred texts.

What applies to nations is true also for different regions within each country, since there too great inequalities often exist. At times, the inability to recognize equal human dignity leads the more developed regions in some countries to think that they can jettison the “dead weight” of poorer regions and so increase their level of consumption.

Let's put it like this:
"We are not saying we hate the terroni, but we would unplug their life support to charge our phones. BIG DIFFERENCE"

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Apparently the Chamber today confirmed its confidence to the Conte II government with 321 Yes, 259 No and 27 abstentions (coming all from Italia Viva).

Of course the biggest hurdle will be the Senate tomorrow. I still have no expectations.

In the meantime, the regional election in Calabria will be held on April 11th - hoping it does not get postponed again - while the date of the Chamber by-election in the Siena constituency is still unclear. Since the centre-left is notoriously masochist, there is some skirmish happening between the national PD, the local PD, IV, and what not over who should be the nominee in the by-election. Zero news about potential candidates in Calabria.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I have been listening to some Senators' speeches. Matteo Renzi said some good things mixed together with tiresome globe-emoji ideologism, as usual. Alberto Bagnai (Lega's leading economist) was sharp and cunning, as usual, but when he complained that in 2019 too little money was spent on public investments I couldn't help laughing.

Also I think I might love Andrea Cioffi (M5S) now:
- grated turbo-neoliberalism (and implicitly Renzi)
- made a reference to Bernie Sanders
- made a reference to the Gospel of Mark
- talked about putting people first, recognizing their love and their pain, and promoting brotherhood
- made a very poetic description of the glucose cycle as the material motor of life

[Battista Minola 1616]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

[Battista Minola 1616]

And Matteo Salvini unsurprisingly greatly exceeded the time limit for his speech, provoking vociferous protests.

His speech has actually been a pretty good rundown of #populist conservative fusionism on every issue.