TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Kuumo]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

[Kuumo]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins

This is a good point. Democrats are just as likely to overperform polling as Republicans in Texas. I only rate TX-SEN as Lean R, and my hot take is that Hegar is actually more likely to win than Greenfield in IA.

Eh. Anecdotally, I know a bunch of Biden/Cornyn voters. Also anecdotally, no one is *excited* about Hegar. I like her, and I've voted for her, and my friends have too, but then they're like "So...if she wins...we get a Democrat in the Senate for 6 years.......and it's her??"

Sad. I really wish that Beto or Julian Castro had run. They would probably be running even with Biden.