MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3

[VAR]

August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.

[VAR]

August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.

There was, but the sampling period and sample size were not in the release. 538 only adds polls for which the sampling dates are supplied.

No, I just don’t buy that they polled this race in May.

[VAR]

August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.

There was, but the sampling period and sample size were not in the release. 538 only adds polls for which the sampling dates are supplied.

No, I just don’t buy that they polled this race in May.

So you think they're actually faking their numbers, or that they polled slightly earlier but had those numbers ready for a private release in May? The former prospect is quite a bold claim to entertain.

Actually, the former is what I meant, but the latter is possible given they polled MN-02 as well. I just don’t see why it would get better for Trump.