IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[VAR]

Ernst not polling so well recently but I think she will rebound and hold this seat.

Okay and Ernst approvals are similar to Trump's at 37/43 percent

The Selzer poll shows her approval rating at 49/39.

[VAR]

Theresa Greenfield scrubbed job experience from her campaign website following attacks from the GOP about her business record.

“Why is Greenfield hiding from her record?” the Ernst campaign asks in a digital ad launching Monday.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/ernst-campaign-asks-why-greenfield-scrubbed-job-experience-from-website/article_04253c8e-14d8-5078-a370-c59c71196034.html

[VAR]

Theresa Greenfield scrubbed job experience from her campaign website following attacks from the GOP about her business record.

“Why is Greenfield hiding from her record?” the Ernst campaign asks in a digital ad launching Monday.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/ernst-campaign-asks-why-greenfield-scrubbed-job-experience-from-website/article_04253c8e-14d8-5078-a370-c59c71196034.html

Ernst is getting desperate

Why do you have this tendency to view everything as a positive for the Democrats?

[VAR]

Theresa Greenfield scrubbed job experience from her campaign website following attacks from the GOP about her business record.

“Why is Greenfield hiding from her record?” the Ernst campaign asks in a digital ad launching Monday.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/ernst-campaign-asks-why-greenfield-scrubbed-job-experience-from-website/article_04253c8e-14d8-5078-a370-c59c71196034.html

Ernst is getting desperate

Why do you have this tendency to view everything as a positive for the Democrats?

I could say the same thing about you in reverse?

And I'm not, but Ernst's actions recently are just kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel of whatever they can find, even if it's something that doesn't really matter, to make it out to be a "scandal" for Greenfield when she really doesn't have any

I understand, but every campaign does that. They see if the attack sticks and if it doesn’t, they just move on. That’s how Trump won in 2016.

[VAR]

Theresa Greenfield scrubbed job experience from her campaign website following attacks from the GOP about her business record.

“Why is Greenfield hiding from her record?” the Ernst campaign asks in a digital ad launching Monday.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/ernst-campaign-asks-why-greenfield-scrubbed-job-experience-from-website/article_04253c8e-14d8-5078-a370-c59c71196034.html

Ernst is getting desperate

Why do you have this tendency to view everything as a positive for the Democrats?

I could say the same thing about you in reverse?

And I'm not, but Ernst's actions recently are just kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel of whatever they can find, even if it's something that doesn't really matter, to make it out to be a "scandal" for Greenfield when she really doesn't have any

I recently acknowledged that Greenfield was doing very well among Obama-Trump voters and Ernst will probably underperform Trump. I’ve never seen you say anything like that.

[VAR]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

[VAR]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

Yeah, and Senator Donnelly won because he was a strong, popular incumbent unlike McCaskill.

[VAR]

Joni Ernst tours the state by motorcycle in the final days of 'tough, tough, tough' re-election fight.

"It's not what I feel on the ground," she said. "It's not what I feel when I'm traveling through all 99 counties of Iowa. I am out there, every single week, traveling to a different county and meeting with Iowans."

[VAR]

Joni Ernst tours the state by motorcycle in the final days of 'tough, tough, tough' re-election fight.

"It's not what I feel on the ground," she said. "It's not what I feel when I'm traveling through all 99 counties of Iowa. I am out there, every single week, traveling to a different county and meeting with Iowans."

I detect #populism

I forget, what's the source of that meme?

Steve Bullock, I believe.

No, it’s Jon Tester IIRC.

[VAR]

Also "$30 million more" than, how much has spent here total?

$156 million

Source

[VAR]

I forget, what's the source of that meme?

Steve Bullock, I believe.

No, it’s Jon Tester IIRC.

Yeah, with IceSpear (RIP FF) taking care of the hashtag and the pink heart. It’s mostly a meme to express the hollowness and absurdity/arbitrariness with which the ‘populist’ label is thrown around and to point out how incredibly laughable the clichés about said ‘populist’ voters are, and I can’t say it failed in that regard, even if it triggers certain posters.

Trust me, there are no "populist" tendencies of any stripe in the "ideology" of people who support Jon Tester and Greg Gianforte but can’t bring themselves to vote for Amanda Curtis or Kathleen Williams, regardless of how loosely we define the term without veering into complete absurdity where it loses all of its meaning.

What happened to IceSpear

IceSpear hasn’t logged in for six months.

[VAR]

IceSpear was great, and his KY-GOV prediction (Bevin +5) wasn’t actually that bad. He was wrong about Bevin being inevitable, though.

[VAR]

I doubt IA polling ends up underestimating Democrats in the current realignment.

[VAR]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

[VAR]

Now she’s unskewing the polls? Her campaign is a dumpster fire.

  Sane and principled suburban Des Moines conservatives for Greenfield 

[VAR]

Why would any conservative, or even a moderate vote for Greenfield?

Because she pushed a debunked COVID conspiracy theory which infuriated pro-science Trump supporters. Also, she doesn’t know the price of soybeans, and Trump supporters care about that too. She underperforms Trump by 4-5% imo.

/s

[VAR]

Why is Atlas so obsessed with this state, lol.

[VAR]

SENATOR ERNST

[VAR]

Ernst is underperforming Trump by only 0.7%.

[VAR]

VA Republican and MT Treasurer still think Ernst and Collins are safe and they both have been down 3 to 5 pts. Just like Rs said WI was an R state and WI now is a D state

Yep.

[VAR]

Greenfield lost by more than Ronchetti did lmao.

[VAR]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

it IS a pure tossup though. and the fundamentals are not good for Trump/Rs right now, especially in a state like IA when his support is collapsing in the midwest.

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

Not to mention the fact that Missouri is a more Republican state than Iowa.

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

- McCaskill trailed in most polls.

- McCaskill had been consistently unpopular for years. There was an absolutely vicious Republican smear campaign against her that literally began back in 2016.

- Hawley had a Kavanaugh bump right at the end. Missourians are totally unable to resist culture war red meat.

I will now accept my accolades . Ernst and Hawley won by identical margins too.

[VAR]

OC, before the election:

Ernst is a weak incumbent

Biden will win OH and Ernst is gone by the way

Biden is gonna win Iowa next Tuesday anyways due to Ernst losing 6/9 polls and we can put an end to the silly GOP taking pts once for all about safe R IA.

Collins and Ernst are DOA

Ernst is done

So much for Indy Rep Safe Ernst😆😆😆

Ernst is finished

Kim Reynolds is vulnerable to a Scholten challenge in 2022

OC, after the election:

Reynolds, Collins and Ernst are very popular even among Dems..

Greenfield and HEGAR and Bollier overblown candidates

Joni Ernst is just as popular as Kim Reynolds, as long as both remain in office, they will keep winning

Kim Reynolds is very popular and as long as she remains at Gov, Ernst and Grassley are gonna get reelected