Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.
+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)
I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden
I mean it's possible, Trump's floor performance is prolly like a 52-44 win.
Trump’s floor is probably closer to +3 or +4, MT will likely be in the mid to upper single digits this year.
