Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[Vice President Christian Man]

Unfortunately, I think it will fail.  

Constitutional Amendments SHOULD have to reach a higher threshold than just 50%.  Frankly, I think more bad ideas get voted in through such referenda than through the acts of the worst legislatures.

The states should have more autonomy in most situations.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and a large chunk of "no") voters were motivated by their stance on abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2012 presidential election map but with lopsided margins. On the flip side this reminds me of the WI Supreme Court special election in which the GOP did well in the rurals but got absolutely creamed in the suburbs+urban area and did horrid overall. Dems have warned this would become more likely with the way the current GOP is but unfortunately the people that should care about it don't.

[Vice President Christian Man]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

So no counties trended more in the yes direction compared to Biden's percentages. I can't say I'm surprised but thanks for posting, it's really informative.

[Vice President Christian Man]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

Appalachian far eastern areas stand out. 

The cluster of counties in Western Ohio where "Yes" held up well compared to presidential margins stands out the most to me, though it's unsurprising. These are some of the most inflexible, overwhelmingly Republican counties in the state, and many of them (Shelby, Mercer) have trended Republican in every presidential election since 2000.

This reminds me of the 2022 KY abortion amendment results where support of abortion outpaced Biden throughout much of the state.

[Vice President Christian Man]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

So no counties trended more in the yes direction compared to Biden's percentages. I can't say I'm surprised but thanks for posting, it's really informative.

This could be good news for Ohio Democrats if they capitalize on it. Democrats need to win in Eastern Ohio to win the state. Of late, that region has been trending more rightwards.

However, the results here show that this region of Ohio is more pro-choice than presidential elections would suggest. In fact, Northeastern Ohio is actually more pro-choice than the entire state according to these results. With that in mind, if Democrats capitalize on abortion, they could narrow up or even outright win a lot of these Northeastern Ohio counties, narrowing up the state dramatically.

Dems would be more successful in that region if they became neo-nationalist and favored guns rights but doing so would alienate much of the base. Ryan tried making some appeals in this area but that wasn't strong enough. I think there's a general hatred of both the establishment and the Justice Democrat's in the area. Who they need is someone like Trafficiant who was a de facto Republican by the time he died.