Florida 2022 Megathread

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

I don't exactly understand, maybe I would better if I lived in FL but from my limited understanding it seems like  Covid-19 policies played a huge role. I expected Crist to do better around Orlando due to Disney but that didn't seem to be an issue. Interestingly I think Orange County is the only county if I'm not mistaken to have voted for Crist in all 3 of his gubernatorial races.  The I-4 corridor used to be the most predictive measure based off of Atlas Blue North and Atlas Red South, but obviously the later is no longer true at least for the time being. It's like South Florida is following the same trends as the Rust Belt, rather than the Northeast which it was once thought to be like.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

DeSantis views on cultural issues that democrats attacked him on are issues where he has 60% + support on . He unlike Trump boats democrats to go after him on those issues rather than 50/50 ones

Fair enough. I still don't get how - even with all that being the case - he was able to attract so many Democrats. Because he's been ultraconservative and ultra-artisan and ultra-Republican on not just social issues, but pretty much every issue under the sun. This is a guy who pushed his legislature to pass an aggressive GOP gerrymander for the state's districts, for one thing. I don't get how he can do all those things AND, at the SAME TIME, endear himself to voters from the other party. Maybe some of it had to do with Crist being an uninspiring candidate who didn't motivate the base to turn out much?

It's possible. I'm curious on how well he did with the Romney-Clinton voters. I suppose he won them but I'm curious if Crist did relatively better than them compared to Obama-Trump voters which seemed part of his main constituency. I know posters like TFM wouldn't have voted for DeSantis and I'm not certain PQG or Courts would've either, whereas people like OSR and GTG who supported Trump but opposed the far-right of the MAGA movement would've.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Looks like the media campaign against DeSantis really backfired. Not particularly excited but it's remarkable how much he withered the same type of attacks that brought down Trump, although not in Florida. He really could be the next Ronald Reagan if he chose to run for pres. He had the upper hand and I figured he was going to outperform Trump but I was getting McCroy vs. Cooper vibes with him going full culture warrior.

I always thought DeathSantis would win, BUT I never expected anything of this scale. I mean, I thought 10 points was most likely pushing it, and here he's won by...twenty!

Same thing for Miami-Dade. Didn't really consider Miami-Dade County that much - I remember guessing it'd stick with Crist - but even if it were to go for DeathSantis, I could never have foreseen the margin he won it by - eleven and a half points!

And Palm Beach County, which was Biden+13 in 2020, went red (though in FL-SEN, where, contrary to my expectations, Rubio - despite winning in his own landslide - ran behind DeathSantis, it went for Demings by a hair). And Hillsborough (home to Tampa Bay) supported DeathSantis by nearly 10 points.

I genuinely just don't get how he won in such a blowout - I thought even if he has some crossover appeal, it'd be fairly limited; I figured for the most part, given his controversial national profile and the fact that he's a Democratic bogeyman nationally - he'd win, sure, but he wouldn't win enough Democrats for the win to be too large. And here - it's a landslide. It's a blowout. It's crazy. It's...Florida.

I don't exactly understand, maybe I would better if I lived in FL but from my limited understanding it seems like  Covid-19 policies played a huge role. I expected Crist to do better around Orlando due to Disney but that didn't seem to be an issue. Interestingly I think Orange County is the only county if I'm not mistaken to have voted for Crist in all 3 of his gubernatorial races.  The I-4 corridor used to be the most predictive measure based off of Atlas Blue North and Atlas Red South, but obviously the later is no longer true at least for the time being.

Orange County was also one of just two Dole-Gore counties in the entire country, the other being Maryland's Charles County (that was also the first factoid I ever got from Atlas).

I can understand Charles County because it's a suburban DC county and suburbanites started trending left in the '90s even though it wasn't noticed until Obama, but I'm stumped on why Orange County moved left. I get Orlando is a city but Dole was like a calmer Trump  so it is puzzling. Perhaps Perot could've played a factor but he didn't do well in the South. Also worth noting that Hillary became the first Dem to win Orange County CA after voting for Romney, another contrarian county.