More likely to trend Democratic: Alabama or Oklahoma

[Vice President Christian Man]

While I don't see either of them flipping, I can anticipate both of them will trend Democrat, with Alabama having a higher % of flipping.

Alabama: I see South Alabama flipping or becoming competitive, as climate change intensifies. The Black belt will continue to stay Democrat, although the rural areas of North/Central Alabama will lock in the state for The GOP. I think Dem's will return to winning 40-45% again in a good environment, but I don't think it would flip unless we see a 400+ Dem. landslide, or a favorite regional son gets nominated, but even then I can't see a Dem doing better than Doug Jones 2017 win. Unless one of the major metropolitan areas grow to Atlanta-levels, Alabama does not have the demographics to favor the Dems, despite its relatively large Black population.

Oklahoma: I see the metros of Oklahoma City and Tulsa trending/leaning Democratic, but the rural areas will leave the state overwhelmingly Republican. As the Dems continue to collapse in rural areas which I think that some areas still have room to fall despite it's strong GOP advantage, Oklahoma will likely vote at the similar percentages as it had during the other election cycles in this century, barring a regional favorite son (Dems usually ranging from the upper 20s-mid 30s). Even at best, I only see Dems getting in the low 40's, possibly mid 40's if conditions for the GOP are extremely unfavorable. There's also the slight possibility of conservative Texans leaving the state if Texas becomes more competitive, which would not help The Dems, as well as climate refugees which could level it out, but most people will likely being their politics with them, with the refugee group leaning conservative overall.