I think Rs can absolutely win a senate race in Virginia if the 3 things happen:
1) Red wave midterm
2) No Dem incumbent
3) Good/credible R candidate
Yeah, and that's pretty much what led to Youngkin. Republicans can still put up a respectable showing due to the large rural base, so while flipping enough suburbanites to actually flip the state is difficult, it's not impossible. Whereas somewhere like Colorado, their rural base is much smaller, and the GOP needs to flip basically an impossible number of suburbanites to win outright.
