Probably none, I don't think 2025 is likely to be an election where the Liberals gain seats, especially not ones that are currently safe NDP. But of these four, Vancouver Kingsway. That riding doesn't really have the fundamentals of an NDP+25 seat, so I assume Don Davies is a major factor.
Do you realize that Vancouver-Kingsway is one of the most consistently NDP voting areas in Canada dating back to 1935?! I think Davies has some profile, but its not all about him - the NDP just has extremely strong "brand loyalty" in eastern City of Vancouver and you that also from the way the BC NDP totally dominated the two provincial seats that make up federal vancouver Kingsway. If davies were to retire there would be no shortage of high profile NDPers vying for the nomination
Vancouver Kingsway did vote Liberal in all the Chretien/Martin elections, and the Liberals did better there in 2008 (Davies' first election) than in any of the Trudeau elections. The fact that Liberal support under Trudeau hasn't recovered to even Dion levels, suggests to me that Davies gets support from a decent number of voters who might have gone Liberal in another riding.
But no I'm not saying Kingsway is in any way likely to go Liberal, I just think it's more likely than any of the others. I guess the same could be said about New West-Burnaby, but the Liberals typically get less votes there than in Kingsway. Windsor West has a Liberal tradition, but SW Ontario in general has trended massively away from the LPC. And Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke, with the Greens collapsing and most of their support going to the NDP, it's hard to see it going Liberal.
Poll
