Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

AZ: Absolutely in play, lean blue if anything. Every poll on RCP since the start of 2020 shows both Biden and Kelly ahead. The majority of its CD's are now held by Dems, and Sinema beat McSally by 2.4%. Trump's in real danger here, I can see AZ being 2020's version if Virginia.

GA: Yeah, but lean Trump. Polling has Trump ahead, and rural southern whites are still very strong for him. Biden will need high AA turnout as well as continue the trend of suburban whites shifting left, and even that may not be enough.

TX: Only "in play" if it's a landslide--as it stands right now, at least 5% margin for Trump.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What Trump has in his favor is that these three states are historically "law and order" states.

Yet so far, Trump's response has been god-awful. He's hiding in the bunker (understandably so to be fair) as the country burns. He poured fuel on the fire by jumping straight to aggression then doubling down. "Law and order" works wonders for the Republicans when they have a remotely competent president, which they currently do not.