Non-whites are trending republican. Why is this happening?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'd be cautious about comparing the non-white vote from 2016 with 2012 and 08, because those were the Obama elections. Based on exit polls, black voters in 08 and 12 comprised 13% of the electorate, while in '16 they were 12%, despite the fact that the black population has actually grown. Black Republicans continue to exist, as they did during the Obama years. But Obama was uniquely able to turn out apolitical black people in a way that Hillary was not, and I suspect Biden will not be. By turning out tons of normally apolitical black voters, Obama was able to win with a 95-4 margin. Then when he was off the ticket in 2016, a lot of those apolitical voters went back to not voting, and the vote swung towards Trump by default.

Asians and Hispanics trended R in 2016 compared to 2012, true. But even then, the Asian/Hispanic vote was still more lopsidedly Democratic compared to 2008. Again, there could be an Obama factor here. But really, when you compare more long-term trends, I think the small swing towards the GOP in 2016 was a minor blip rather than a start of a new trend. Asians used to vote more reliably GOP than whites in the 90s, and now they're solidly democratic, with a 65-29 margin considered relatively close. Hispanics have always been a D-voting group, Trump was more competitive than Romney, but miles away from actually carrying the vote.

As for polls, honestly, we are too far out for ethnicity-specific polls to mean anything. If all three groups trend GOP in 2020, then perhaps we're seeing a trend. But as of right now, I'm very skeptical.