Non-whites are trending republican. Why is this happening?

[Curious Indie]

One of the main talking points of the "emerging democratic majority" theory was that democrats would have a lock on the presidency because America is heading towards maority-minority status and such minorities vote dem by large margins. Skepticals of the theory pointed that these minority voters could just be offset by white voters voting more republican. Actually, neither of them is happening.

White voters have essentially stayed the same since 2012, voting around 10 points more republican than the nation. There are diverging forces inside the white electorate, one is non-college whites (wwc) becoming increasingly republican (if there is one group of whites that's moving towards voting as a bloc it's this). However, such republican trend among wwc is nullified by college educated whites trending democratic and moving from group that leaned republican to one that leans democratic, with Biden leading them nationally by a 55-40 average.

But back to the main subject, minorities have actually trended close to 20 points towards the republicans since 2008 and Biden is underperforming even HRC among them as it's reported by the upshot (www*nytimes.com/2020/04/13/upshot/polling-2020-biden-trump.html, replace the asterisk with a dot to see the article):

Mr. Biden also holds the expected wide advantage among nonwhite voters, though here there is consistent evidence of a small yet discernible shift in the president’s direction, including in the large series of New York Times/Siena College polls from last November. Mr. Trump, in contrast, seems to do a tick worse among white voters than he did four years ago, whether because of a slight decrease in his standing among college-educated white voters or the growing share of white voters who possess a four-year degree.

The graphic inside the article shows that democrats had close to a 60-point lead among minorities in 2008, which is now closer to 40 points. One could say it's regression towards the mean because black voters were very supportive of a black candidate. But blacks aren't the biggest minority and that regression doesn't explain a 20 point swing. It's hispanics. Contrary to beliefs of many dems, hispanics aren't swinging hard against Trump but towards him. Is it because they are assimilating and immigration is becoming less important among them? Is it because hispanics are culturally conservative and oppose stuff like abortion, which means they are less comfortable with the democrats? There are some obvious ones like the gains Trump made among cubans and other hispanics in Florida, especially the ones who hate socialism. Are democratics losing hispanics due to assimilation and cultural clashes?

[Bismarck]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

[Grassroots]

Interesting. Welcome to the forum.

[Roll Roons]

Despite Trump's rhetoric on immigration, it does seem like Republicans are trying to do better with Hispanics, as we saw in CA-25. I think they want to make sure Texas and Arizona don't permanently flip, and also become more competitive in California, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

[SevenEleven]

Can you guys let go of this unsubstantiated notion that Latino voters somehow care more about immigration than white voters?

Immigration "reform" is a laughably misguided attempt to reach Latinos. "Build the wall" and "put those kids in cages" is a great way to appeal to white nationalists.

Despite Trump's rhetoric on immigration, it does seem like Republicans are trying to do better with Hispanics, as we saw in CA-25.

In the same way that John James is an attempt to do better with black voters, and Susan Collins is an attempt to do better with women voters, sure. In other words, useless.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

[SevenEleven]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

blanqueamiento

Hmm, seems not to have worked on me.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Perhaps Democrats have reached their ceiling with those voters?

[It’s so Joever]

Yep.
I honestly predict Latinos will move rapidly to the center over the next few decades. Inner-city minorities also may be interesting to look at in terms of voting patterns in the future.

[Bismarck]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

Racial whitening? Do you believe that Latinos because of their mildly darker skin color have an inherent culture that can’t be assimilated? Assimilation has nothing to do with being white. You think we should have a society in which made up racial groups live separately forever? Should we still have German and polish and Irish identity blocks too?

[lfromnj]

Trump didn't gain among the cubans?
He still did worse than Romney and Mccain.

[lfromnj]

Can you guys let go of this unsubstantiated notion that Latino voters somehow care more about immigration than white voters?

Immigration "reform" is a laughably misguided attempt to reach Latinos. "Build the wall" and "put those kids in cages" is a great way to appeal to white nationalists.

Despite Trump's rhetoric on immigration, it does seem like Republicans are trying to do better with Hispanics, as we saw in CA-25.

In the same way that John James is an attempt to do better with black voters, and Susan Collins is an attempt to do better with women voters, sure. In other words, useless.

 The point of John James is to not to win over black voters in Detroit but to increase the GOP margin among suburban women in Bloomfield hills who now feel they aren't voting for the racist party.

[Beet]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

Racial whitening? Do you believe that Latinos because of their mildly darker skin color have an inherent culture that can’t be assimilated? Assimilation has nothing to do with being white. You think we should have a society in which made up racial groups live separately forever? Should we still have German and polish and Irish identity blocks too?

I'm sure African Americans are asking the same question.

As far as Latinos, Bush and Obama were a good fit for them and so are Trump (outside of immigration) and Sanders. Less so, Biden. All the more reason why Biden has work to do to turn out Hispanics for him.

[BaldEagle1991]

Can you guys let go of this unsubstantiated notion that Latino voters somehow care more about immigration than white voters?

Immigration "reform" is a laughably misguided attempt to reach Latinos. "Build the wall" and "put those kids in cages" is a great way to appeal to white nationalists.

Despite Trump's rhetoric on immigration, it does seem like Republicans are trying to do better with Hispanics, as we saw in CA-25.

In the same way that John James is an attempt to do better with black voters, and Susan Collins is an attempt to do better with women voters, sure. In other words, useless.

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio serve this same purpose among Hispanics.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

Racial whitening? Do you believe that Latinos because of their mildly darker skin color have an inherent culture that can’t be assimilated? Assimilation has nothing to do with being white. You think we should have a society in which made up racial groups live separately forever? Should we still have German and polish and Irish identity blocks too?

What are you talking about? If anything Hispanic culture will be (if not already) assimilated into  American culture similar to how Black culture has been intertwined into our culture.

Now, where I disagree with you is this narrative that Hispanics will be able to assimilate into the country in the same way as Poles and Italians did. I find this disingenuous because Hispanics can be assimilated into American society and still face inequity and discrimination simply because of the color of their skin.

We live in a de facto white society and even at the height of discrimination against Irish and Italians Americans outside of hardline racists they were considered white. The government classified them as such,  Jim Crow saw them as such, and they have benefited as such. Many Hispanic will not be allowed that opportunity and will likely continue to feel distrusted and viewed as unequal by many White Americans because of the color of their skin in the same way many of us in the African American community feel every day.

Until Republicans can genuinely and properly address that core issue I don't think they will ever gain any substantial amount of the non-white vote.   

[SevenEleven]

Can you guys let go of this unsubstantiated notion that Latino voters somehow care more about immigration than white voters?

Immigration "reform" is a laughably misguided attempt to reach Latinos. "Build the wall" and "put those kids in cages" is a great way to appeal to white nationalists.

Despite Trump's rhetoric on immigration, it does seem like Republicans are trying to do better with Hispanics, as we saw in CA-25.

In the same way that John James is an attempt to do better with black voters, and Susan Collins is an attempt to do better with women voters, sure. In other words, useless.

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio serve this same purpose among Hispanics.

Not really. Rubio is a fairly standard Cuban-American with a fairly standard Cuban-American story.

[SevenEleven]

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

Racial whitening? Do you believe that Latinos because of their mildly darker skin color have an inherent culture that can’t be assimilated? Assimilation has nothing to do with being white. You think we should have a society in which made up racial groups live separately forever? Should we still have German and polish and Irish identity blocks too?

What are you talking about? If anything Hispanic culture will be (if not already) assimilated into  American culture similar to how Black culture has been intertwined into our culture.

If by "intertwined", you mean "largely disregarded and relegated to permanent minority status" then maybe you have a point.

Yes there is no reason that I can see that the Hispanic, especially Mexican, vote would not follow the same trend as the Italians, Poles, and Irish that came before them. If anything they are assimilating faster to a country that is much more accepting of them than what past immigrants had to deal with.

So the best way for Republicans to do better with Hispanics is not through any type of policy changes but through racial whitening. Yikes.

Racial whitening? Do you believe that Latinos because of their mildly darker skin color have an inherent culture that can’t be assimilated? Assimilation has nothing to do with being white. You think we should have a society in which made up racial groups live separately forever? Should we still have German and polish and Irish identity blocks too?

Lmao, I can tell this is going to go over great. Mr. Indiana Republican, please. Please explain what you mean you say "assimilated".

[Former President tack50]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

[Tintrlvr]

Polling is not election results. At best, you must work with 2016 and 2018 election results if you're going to compare to the past. In particular, Republicans have consistently polled better with minorities, especially black voters, than the actual results on Election Day for ages and ages. It's not completely clear why this is the case. One theory is that Republican minority voters are more politically engaged given what a small minority they are (and going against the grain) and so are more likely to respond to pollsters and express their views more firmly. Another theory is the "centrist bias" perspective that all voters tend to bias their responses in polls to the center, which has a greater impact in one direction with a group that is overall heavily skewed in the other direction (e.g., if black voters are exhibiting a centrist bias in poll responses, there will be meaningfully more black Democrats who say they will vote Republican or are unsure than the other way around because there are so many more black Democrats than black Republicans). There could also be other effects. Whatever the reason, this means comparing polling to prior results is somewhere between meaningless and actively misleading.

The New York Times should know this, but political media often ignores these sorts of things in favor of creating narratives.

[Orser67]

The New York Times should know this, but political media often ignores these sorts of things in favor of creating narratives.

I agree with your first paragraph, but the NYTimes isn't making this point; the article itself is purely concentrated on potential differences between 2016 and 2020. OP is just using a graph in the article as evidence for their argument.

[Orser67]

Maybe there's a better source of data available, but according to the exit polls on Wikipedia (which are sourced to Edison Research):

U.S.:
2000: D+1 (I'm just rounding to the nearest integer...Gore won by 0.51 points)
2004: R+2
2008: D+7
2012: D+4
2016: D+2

White voters:
2000: R+13
2004: R+17
2008: R+12
2012: R+20
2016: R+21

Black voters:
2000: D+81
2004: D+77
2008: D+91
2012: D+87
2016: D+80

Asian voters:
2000: D+14
2004: D+12
2008: D+27
2012: D+47
2016: D+36

Other voters:
2000: Not listed
2004: D+14
2008: D+35
2012: D+20
2016: D+19

Latino voters:
2000: D+27
2004: D+9
2008: D+36
2012: D+44
2016: D+36

I don't see much evidence here of minorities trending into the Republican Party. I think one fairly important thing that did happen is that Democratic dominance with African Americans declined a little without the first African American presidential nominee/president on the ballot. But it's also pretty obvious that, compared to the Bush years, Democrats have made deep, long-term gains with Hispanic and Asian voters.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

I don’t think there’s any question of whether nonwhites in the US can assimilate culturally. African-Americans were already culturally American to begin with- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  It’s just that many if not most Latinos look “mixed-race”, which means the ones who don’t already identify as “white” won’t be seen as white.

[SevenEleven]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

[Tintrlvr]

The New York Times should know this, but political media often ignores these sorts of things in favor of creating narratives.

I agree with your first paragraph, but the NYTimes isn't making this point; the article itself is purely concentrated on potential differences between 2016 and 2020. OP is just using a graph in the article as evidence for their argument.

Fair enough to a degree (I didn't read the article before responding), but, unless the whole below is completely fabricated, there is a degree of not being self-aware enough going on at the NYT, too.

Mr. Biden also holds the expected wide advantage among nonwhite voters, though here there is consistent evidence of a small yet discernible shift in the president’s direction, including in the large series of New York Times/Siena College polls from last November. Mr. Trump, in contrast, seems to do a tick worse among white voters than he did four years ago, whether because of a slight decrease in his standing among college-educated white voters or the growing share of white voters who possess a four-year degree

[Roronoa D. Law]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't Hispanics be able to assimilate?

We know Hispanics are not a race but lose term for the ethnicity of those who identify and appear as mixed-race between Indigenous Americans and Europeans. Now if you are asking if Hispanics will be able to assimilate into the definition of "White" in America as Italians and Poles did then it will be very hard for that happens.

Even in Latin American countries where the overwhelming majority of the population are of Spanish descent still see social and economic divide among those considered "White" and the more mixed-race population. All signs point to that dynamic continuing in America especially since the definition of Whiteness in America and White Americans ancestry more often than not being associated with Northern Europe. (ie: British, French, Nordic, and the greater German area)

Nobody is saying that Hispanics can't be assimilated into American society and there is a strong case to be made that they already have. I'm just pointing out that all signs show the ethnicity known as Hispanics will establish themselves as an influential and independent minority in America in a similar fashion to that of Black Americans and not as an extension of the White Majority that many see Italians and Poles are today.