Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

In Davenport, the NDP seems poised to pick Alejandra Bravo, who is a good candidate for them. She is with the Broadbent Institute and ran three times for city council in Toronto's former ward 17 (northern half of Davenport, the more difficult part of the riding for the NDP).  Speaks Portuguese and French as well as her native Spanish.  

https://www.bravodavenport.ca/

If she wins, she'll likely be Toronto's only non-Liberal MP.

Probably the likeliest Toronto win for the NDP, but she still has an uphill battle.

It will be interesting to watch nonetheless, because if the CPC stays as weak as they are now, I think voters in places like Davenport will feel less obligated to vote Liberal.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.

And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.

Not a bad prediction.  I think for future PMs, Chrystia Freeland is smartest bet.  As for next Tory leader who becomes PM, that is a tough one is no one out there who I think is obvious.  In fact I believe next Tory PM (if they ever win again) is probably someone few of us have ever heard of.  After all in 1996, how many people knew who Stephen Harper was?  Most Liberal PMs tend to be big names with long histories in party while Tories usually tend to be people who aren't as big a name. 

I think a Mulroney-esque figure is most likely to be the next Tory PM, someone with CPC connections but from the private sector. Either that, or some obscure rando who works their way up the grease pole.

The most likely Harper-era Conservative to ever become Prime Minister (other than O'Toole due to statistical probability) I think is Rona Ambrose, if she brushes up on her French. But it seems like she has a pretty sweet gig in the private sector, so it's entirely likely that she's done with politics for good.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

There's something faintly ridiculous about questioning the long term viability of a party that's *checks polling average* only down 5-6 points to a government in its second term. Obviously the Tories aren't doing great right now, but it's silly to act like they can't possibly make up that small of a gap in a country like Canada and the Liberals will govern forever and ever amen.

Yeah, I find the tenor of posts here (mostly mileslunn's, I guess) incongruous with the fact that, last I checked, the Conservative Party won the most votes at the last federal election.

They won popular vote, but their vote very inefficient, largely due to running up margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Never mind that was pre-pandemic and pandemic changed a lot.  While I wouldn't say Tories dead, certainly still at 30% in polls, I do think their support amongst millennials should make them worried.  Yes old saying is people get more conservative as they age, but that is greatly exaggerated.  Lets remember most boomers remember old PCs thus many believe party will eventually return to roots and willing to come back then.  Most millennials only remember Tories led by more ideological leaders thus see Tories same way boomers see NDP, too ideological and won't even consider even if leader moderate. 

NDP faces this issue with boomers and in BC couldn't even win popular vote and most seats in 2017 despite 16 years of BC Liberals while in Ontario fear of another Rae government kept many away.  Off course possible Gen Z or generations after will be more conservative.  In many European countries, right is strongest amongst younger voters and its older voters favouring left so always possible in 30 years you see reverse of now with Tories strong amongst younger voters and weak amongst older (today's millennials).

Not saying Tories won't ever win again, but I think its a decade away before returning power.  I think base is becoming even more right wing as more going to right wing echo chambers thus in order to win nomination you have to be well to right of median voter.  A moderate type who could win general election like Jean Charest or Michael Chong would never win nomination thus problem for party.  Yes you can flip flop like O'Toole but that just angers both sides it seems.

What's interesting about Canada's political demographics is that older voters split evenly between the Liberals and the CPC, or at least they have under Trudeau. But if those boomers are upset with the Liberals, they sure ain't going to the NDP, at least not in large numbers. So let's say the Liberals mess up bad and Trudeau's teflon has worn off (or he's gone and Freeland is in charge, who is generally liked as a minister, but we haven't seen her on the campaign trail). Younger Liberal voters, if they decide to ditch the Liberals, will largely break for the NDP and Greens (and possibly the Bloc in Quebec). Older Liberals however are much more likely to swing to the CPC (and possibly the Bloc in Quebec). And since the CPC is starting out from a stronger position than the NDP, on balance, this makes a CPC government more likely. The CPC seems dead in the water now, but that's not always going to be the case.

As for majority vs minority: if the CPC wins a minority at any point in the next few years, I doubt the progressive forces rally around the Liberals. Let's not forget that for five years, Harper governed with a minority, and Layton and Duceppe were happy to let him govern instead of the Liberals (except for that weird coalition drama in 2008). If anything, the NDP would rather have a Conservative government than a Liberal one, because that's usually when the NDP does best. What the NDP ultimately wants is to replace the Liberals as the default centre-left party, as they did briefly from 2011-2015. And it's much easier for an ideologically firm party to grow its support with a message of "this right wing government is destroying everything progressives stand for!" rather than "this centre left government isn't going far enough!"

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And true Liberals do have issue of fighting a two front war thus naturally being closest to median voter serves them well, but as we saw in Ontario and federally in 2011 also problematic if they get squeezed out.  Still I think NDP's hope Liberals go way Liberal Democrats do seems unlikely.  Liberal Democrats I don't think were as flexible as Liberals in Canada in moving with the winds.  Federal Liberals tend to swing left or right depending on mood.  More left leaning in 60s and 70s while more right leaning in 90s and now more left leaning.  Also today's progressives unlike in past tend to be reasonably well off as opposed to blue collar types so that helps Liberals.  It seems in Canada much like US, left does better in more upper middle class areas than blue collar, sort of opposite of how things were traditionally.  Part of reason Labour is struggling so much in UK, is they are a bridge too far to breakthrough into upper middle class college educated areas unlike Liberals or Democrats.

There is also question for Tories, do they try to be upper middle class party like PCs were under Mulroney or more blue collar type like Trump and many right wing populist in Europe are.  In countries with PR, generally you have a centre-right that appeals to former and more populist right appeals to latter.  I think former doable if Liberals drift too far left.  Generally as rule of thumb people won't vote anyone who raises their taxes and if Liberals decide to start targeting top 10% instead of just top 1% for tax hikes that might create an opening as top 1% too small to win an election, but top 10% make up a key part of Liberal base.  Latter has worked well elsewhere but might be harder in Canada as a lot of the working class are in large urban areas that vote left as opposed to smaller communities where there is more of a market for this.  Still latter may allow Tories to gain in Northern Ontario and could help in ridings like Niagara Centre.  Essentially, former regains ridings like Burlington and Kanata-Carleton while latter gains Niagara Centre.  Challenge is type of policy that appeals to both, I am not sure that will be easy.

Boris Johnson united both as Corbyn was so far left that was easy to do, but if Labour had a more moderate leader, not sure he would have done as well.  Still probably won, but not by as big a margin.  For Trump it worked in 2016, but backfired in 2020 as while held the gains from 2016, lost many traditional Republican suburbs in 2020 thus risk there.

Well, they have to do both. You can't win a Canadian election without being at least somewhat of a big tent party. Even Mulroney's PCs were a pretty big tent, it included some members (particularly those from Quebec) who were basically left-wing but joined the PCs because of the constitution issue, and there were some pretty hardline right-wingers in Mulroney's caucus. In fact that's what made the Mulroney government so unstable, but it also won two majorities. A smaller, more manageable tent than that is what they should aim for - but you still need a pretty broad tent.

It can be done, but yeah it's much harder for the CPC. There's an increasing gap between the general political consensus in Canada and the CPC base, even though some in the Conservative "establishment" are increasingly moving to the left, or at least going for a softer, more PC image (in both meanings of the word). But this just widens the gap. That said, you can't just ignore your base. In a FPTP system, you'll have to find some compromise position that unites different wings.

In 2006, Harper's big thing was the accountability act, and fighting corruption generally. He found a sweet spot where he had the moral high ground on the Liberals, and it was something that both moderates and wingnuts could agree on. O'Toole needs to find something like that if he wants even a shot at forming government (at this point, I'm sure even an increased caucus would go down as a win). But that "Policy X" can't be about the environment or social issues because clearly those are areas where the Conservative Party has no consensus and there's little middle ground to be had.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

Does the pensions thing, in your opinion, feel like a concern that is particularly valid?

In a democratic sense? No, not at all, our electoral policy shouldn't be at the mercy of politicians wanting a pension. But if I were a Liberal MP from the class of 2015, particularly in a competitive riding, I'd rather Trudeau call it after my pension is locked in.

By my count, 86/154 or 56% of Liberal MPs fall in this category of "elected in 2015 and seeking re-election". Most of them have safe seats and polling is good for the Liberals but any election is inherently a risk. I bet at least some of them are asking the big boss to hold his horses, but whether or not there's a real push or if Trudeau even cares, I can't say, because somehow this random talkelections poster doesn't get invited to Liberal caucus meetings!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

The Bloc, however, is opposed to a October election as it would clash with the Quebec municipal elections. They seem to only support an election called called in August for mid-September.

Ah, I missed that reasoning, because that does change the calculation a bit. So the question is, would Trudeau rather placate his vulnerable backbenchers, or hold it at a convenient time for the province that holds the keys to his majority? I think it's pretty clear, we're going to the polls boys!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HoCChamber/status/1400456918594768906
Perhaps I spoke too soon about holding off on an election...

How does the Canadian Dairy Commission/Centre for Disease Control have anything to do with this  

But yeah it seems like everything is pointing to an early fall election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh another thing, the Liberals and the Bloc teaming up to shut down studies on Bill C-10 is a good indicator of an election coming up. The Liberals want to shore up support in Quebec by passing C-10 before the writ drops, and the Bloc wants to say they allowed it to happen.

Frustrating though, real frustrating. I have real concerns about Bill C-10 and shutting down the debate doesn't help with my concerns one bit. The worst part is I know I'm still going to get in line and vote Liberal because I support probably 80% of what this government does, but the other 20% is often so stupid or blatantly anti-parliament that it really makes me cringe

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.

It's amazing how many bridges Kenney has burned in such a short time. It took the PC dynasty 44 years to become so utterly awful that Albertans ditched them for the crazy far left hippie socialists, and Kenney's UCP might do it in just 4.

Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that Alberta's Conservative party is polling around the same as Ontario's. You'd think hell froze over.

I think people are seeing Kenney for who he really is - a nasty, cynical, opportunistic career politician who maintains his power by stepping on others' toes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.

It's amazing how many bridges Kenney has burned in such a short time. It took the PC dynasty 44 years to become so utterly awful that Albertans ditched them for the crazy far left hippie socialists, and Kenney's UCP might do it in just 4.

Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that Alberta's Conservative party is polling around the same as Ontario's. You'd think hell froze over.

I think people are seeing Kenney for who he really is - a nasty, cynical, opportunistic career politician who maintains his power by stepping on others' toes.

Also too much of an ideologue.  Most past PC leaders came from PC side of merger or were at least acceptable to both like Klein.  Kenney is first from Reform/Alliance and generally people from that wing don't win anywhere in Canada.  Alberta voted Reform due to Western Alienation, not because most were as right wing as them.  Never mind that was a quarter of a century ago and province has changed a lot since.

Harper was the exception to this rule as he was a lot more strategic and patient than Kenney and had his eye on the long game.  Very few as conservative as him are like that.  I've found many like this are more about picking fights with their opponents which just angers people and less about governing.  Never mind Harper towards end lost his patience and started acting more like Kenney and lost in big part because of that.  I think for Red Tories since they generally agree with the way Canada operates and its more over details and wanting to be somewhat more conservative, not radical change; they are about governing and willing to work with others and don't have same nasty streak Reform wing does.

A lot from Reform wing are quite bitter as they basically hate everything about modern Canada and rather than strategically trying to move things in their direction, its more about settling scores with other side and owning the left.  That might work in US where country is split almost down middle and is deeply polarized, but not in Canada which is much less polarized and people tend to have an aversion to extremes and division.

Real challenge for NDP is to be moderate and make sure the more radical elements are kept under wraps since if they make too much noise that could sink Notley.  Notley in first term did a good job controlling them and being moderate but some now are frustrated and want a bold left wing platform rather than recognizing Albertans want to get rid of Kenney and be somewhat more progressive, but not a sharp turn left.  Despite stereotype, Alberta by and large is a fairly centrist province and Notley is closer to middle than Kenney thus why ahead.  There is little appetite for an AOC or Corbyn led government in Alberta.  Radical candidates is what sunk Howarth in 2018.  Now Notley to be fair at least has record in government so that somewhat blunts that risk.

Ideological dogmatism and blinding incompetence are a terrible combination.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Innovative research toplines (link): LPC 38, CPC 27, NDP 15, BQ 8 (35 in QC), GPC 8, OTH 5

As always Innovative has the Liberals slightly above the polling consensus, but this wouldn't be an unthinkable outcome. I think a lot of those "others" voters and undecideds in the prairies will rally around the CPC come election time, giving them just over 30%. I also predict a Green Party collapse considering how rudderless and invisible they've been post-Lizzy May, which will likely help the Liberals.

I post this poll because I found Innovative Research's "value cluster" idea really interesting. I remember in the last election they had a "seat cluster" model based on 2011 and 2015 results, which I think was a terrible model because things have changed a lot since 2011. I mean, they had Regina-Wascana in the "solid Liberal" cluster in that model, and obviously Regina-Wascana is nothing like Ottawa-Vanier.

Here are their "value cluster" breakdowns:

Populist Conservatives: CPC +35 (over OTH)
Deferential Conservatives: CPC +9 (over LPC)
Business Liberals: LPC +22 (over CPC)
Left Liberals: LPC +20 (over both CPC and NDP)
Core Left: LPC +19 (over NDP)
Thrifty Moderates: LPC +10 (over CPC)

Here are their breakdowns by socio-economic clusters:
Achievers: LPC +9 (over CPC)
Strugglers: TIED (LPC and CPC)
Ambivalent: LPC +19 (over CPC)
Alienated: LPC +12 (over NDP)

The methodology to determine these clusters is explained in the report.

Really highlights the Liberals' strengths and the CPC's struggles. Liberals are popular across the political spectrum, really with the exception of the solid right-wing. They lead among people with left-wing values, moderates, and their support reaches into some people with conservative values. The CPC should be doing much better among "deferential conservatives" and "thrifty moderates", and chipping into the "business liberal" vote.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP and Tories are tied with "Left Liberals"?

Basically they define "Left Liberals" as people who believe that...
- government spending should be based on public need, not ability to afford
- the main role of government is to create opportunity, not redistribute wealth
- the profit motive brings out the worst in human nature

Left Liberals are basically tied in the "listen to experts vs rely on common sense" dichotomy, which I question a bit, but the other definitions check out.

These voters apparently go 20% to the CPC and NDP each. I don't see much "Conservative values" in those tenets, but people do weird things. I've met people with decidedly left-wing opinions support CPC, and people with decidedly right-wing opinions support one of the progressive parties. Makes no sense, but people's voting habits are never strictly ideological.

Or all this could be wrong, it's just one poll after all, and this "voter cluster" thing is a new thing. But it's interesting all the same. Maybe one day we'll get a detailed "political tribes" analysis like they have in the UK...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't know if I buy the Israel/Palestine explanation. Maybe the internal chaos caused by the controversy pushed her into this decision, but...

1. If her beef with Annamie Paul was her position on Palestine, it makes no sense to go Liberal. Atwin would never be allowed to call Israel an apartheid state as a Liberal, the LPC's position on Israel is pretty much the same as Annamie Paul's

2. Internal sources have reported that her floor crossing has been in the works for weeks.

I think the truth is that Jenica Atwin woke up and smelled the coffee. The Green Party is a distant fifth party that can barely keep its house in order, and Atwin seems like an ambitious person. Even if her name alone makes her safe as a Green in Fredericton, she had very little influence as a member of a caucus that isn't even officially recognized as an official party. She may be a smaller fish in the Liberal pond, but governing parties can actually do things, and she probably has enough of a name to push her priorities in a way that most Liberal backbenchers don't. The Liberals have also been tolerant of some light criticism from the left-wing of the caucus - Nathaniel Erskine-Smith comes to mind.

Atwin seems like more of an NDPer, but politically that was probably a dead end for her, as Fredericton doesn't have a strong NDP base. But she's probably safer as a Liberal in Fredericton than she would be, had she remained in the increasingly dysfunctional Green Party.

I think the Green Party is screwed if there's an election soon, which there likely will be. Paul is a vulnerable nd embattled leader inexplicably contesting Toronto Centre in a general, Manly isn't primetime material, and May is old news. Atwin could have helped improve the Greens' fortunes in the maritimes but without her they don't have the beachhead. Plus the Liberals have been much more forceful on climate in this parliament than the last so I really don't see how the Greens can grow as a party without some serious changes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Paul Manly may be making a jump too.  He removed the Green Party from his twitter bio and of course he was the other one targeted in this.

Hah, imagine that! All that noise in 2019, and they may be back to where they started.

That said the NDP already has a candidate in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, and if Manly were to switch parties I'd think he'd go NDP. There's a LOT of bad blood between Greens and NDPers, and I'd imagine this is especially true on the island where the Greens have been the NDP's primary threat. So I don't know if Manly will jump just yet.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

Political centrists like that tend to support the incumbents when they think they're doing a decent enough job, or if they really don't like the alternative. In Ontario 2014 for example, the 905 went almost unanimously for Kathleen Wynne's OLP, which was more to the left than it was under McGuinty.

I think centrists are happy enough with the Liberals for now, like how a lot of left-liberals supported Chretien. The LPC may have moved left, but so has the country, so they haven't really ceded the "middle ground". Were the LPC to pivot to a more Martinite position, I bet they'd actually do worse, because it would be off-beat with the general tendency of modern political discourse in Canada.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

Tbf, this is somewhat on May, as she railroaded the leadership candidates in order to hand it to Paul on a silver platter.

I think it goes back further. For the last decade or so, the Green Party has essentially been the Elizabeth May party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Although I'm not a Green Party supporter, it is quite disappointing to see that after all the hard work Elizabeth May put in to build the party over the past 15 years, it's being effectively blown apart all in a matter of months since a new leader took over.

I think real issue is with Trudeau moving left, is there really a need for three centre-left parties as they all have more or less same policies, just varying degrees.  When Liberals were in dead centre it made sense to have a more left wing party and granted Liberals tend to talk the talk more than walk the walk on progressive policies, but at least if one believes in it, you can always push them from in better than another party.

Real part of the spectrum not represented is the middle.  If you are a Red Tory or Blue Liberal, you are more or less politically homeless and I am kind of surprised no one has tried to fill that in.  Although some suggest that this group is grossly overrepresented in media, but much smaller amongst general public and perhaps true as this group is disproportionately well off and university educated and usually over 40 in suburbs or affluent in urban neighbourhoods.

So Greens collapsing not a total surprise as not enough differences between progressive parties to warrant having three so it was likely one would implode, just a question of which one.

Political centrists like that tend to support the incumbents when they think they're doing a decent enough job, or if they really don't like the alternative. In Ontario 2014 for example, the 905 went almost unanimously for Kathleen Wynne's OLP, which was more to the left than it was under McGuinty.

I think centrists are happy enough with the Liberals for now, like how a lot of left-liberals supported Chretien. The LPC may have moved left, but so has the country, so they haven't really ceded the "middle ground". Were the LPC to pivot to a more Martinite position, I bet they'd actually do worse, because it would be off-beat with the general tendency of modern political discourse in Canada.

True, but also gap between Liberals and NDP & Greens is much smaller.  In some ways PCs in 90s had same issue as Liberals moved right.  Still quite interesting how Canada is moving left when most countries are moving right.  Granted its more your cultural conservatism gaining elsewhere as opposed to economic conservatism.  That being said there is a strong argument Tories would do better if they reached out to Blue Liberals or Red Tories or have we reached a point where middle is hollowed out and its 2/3 on left, 1/3 on right?

I'm not so sure, I think there's still a significant right-of-centre vote in this country (just look at provincial governments - granted, a lot of the conservative premiers have done significant damage to themselves and their movement during COVID, so we'll see).

I don't think the middle has "hollowed out" though, it's more that the middle today is much more to the left than it once was. In 2008, Stephane Dion's Liberals basically ran on climate change and this didn't resonate at all with mainstream centrist voters who cared more about taxes than climate. This is no longer the case. Or when you look at the discussion around race/indigenous issues, or general LGBTQ acceptance, it's clear that the discourse and culture is very different than it used to be. I go back to the Don Cherry controversy in late 2019 - this man, who was once beloved by Canadians despite his decidedly non-PC statements for decades, managed to get kicked off Hockey Night in Canada. Yes it was a corporate decision and yes there was backlash, but the outrage wasn't what it probably would have been ten years ago. I think the median Canadian has moved to the left culturally, at a time when most of the world has done he opposite.

Economically, pretty much the whole world is to the left of where it used to be, and Canada's no different. But while the "economically left, culturally right" trend has benefited people like Boris Johnson elsewhere, the broad-based leftward shift in Canada puts the CPC in a difficult position. The NDP was in prime position to capitalize on this in 2015, but Mulcair was stuck in old ways and Trudeau ate his lunch.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Another theory is that most centrist suburban voters aren't thinking in terms of left/right, they're thinking in terms of what the government is actually doing. Trudeau hasn't raised taxes for most Canadians, he's actually lowered them for the key demographic in the GTA. And when he spends big, a lot of it is geared towards middle-class families (CCB, bringing in childcare, etc). The Liberal government is also very adept at appealing to niche GTA/big metro area concerns like gun violence and transit. For a centrist suburban family living in Ontario, the federal Liberals are putting more money in their pockets, while the provincial Conservatives are cutting their kids' education funding. It's pretty clear which party they would prefer.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Hahahahahahaha

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/riseoftheredtories

The above is an interesting article from 2009 I posted in the discussion of the UK Tories. Is there anyone in the Canadian Tories advocating this sort of thing? I understand that it used to be quite prominent in Canada (whence the phrase "Red Tory").

"Red Tory" is used to describe a completely different culture in Canada these days, something more akin to Rockefeller Republicans (fiscally conservative and business-friendly but progressive on social issues and now climate change). These were actually called "blue tories" historically, and the Mulroney PCs were a good example of that, but Harper kinda choked out the remnants of this culture. Really the only prominent and outspoken red/blue/Mulroney Tory in the CPC these days is Michael Chong. Most other blue tories have either accepted the Liberals' big spending tendencies because they find the CPC more unpalatable, or accepted the CPC's GOP-ish tendencies because they find the LPC more unpalatable.

Traditional Canadian/UK red tories (economically activist government but patrician in their tendencies) have been irrelevant in Canada for even longer, and I would argue that this culture is more embodied by the LPC than the CPC. O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one. With the old PCs dead, the Liberals are a more natural party of well-off centrists with bleeding heart tendencies.

I just don't think traditional UK/early Canadian red toryism works anymore in Canada. Canada is more culturally left wing than economically, and there isn't the economic stratification that made red toryism a viable ideology in the UK for so long. A Johnsonite red toryism/one-nation conservatism works in a country like the UK where cultural (not social) conservatism and nationalism are much more mainstream, but Canadians by and large don't subscribe to that sort of thing.

Funnily enough, the one major population in Canada where this kind of BoJo-style conservatism has appeal is Quebec, the least British of Canadian provinces. The Legault government in Quebec actually reminds me a bit of Johnson's Tories because they're not afraid to spend big and aren't religious wackos, but they're very nationalistic and culturally conservative.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

O'Toole has been trying to move the CPC in a more economically activist direction, but he takes a more populist approach than a patrician one.

O'Toole seems to be a modern-day Diefenbaker Tory. 

Probably, but not sure that works.  I have asked this elsewhere, but would others agree that Canada is now one of the most left wing if not the most left wing countries on earth.  Sure Trudeau is only slightly left of centre, but how many other countries on earth does left have over 70% support and right sub 30%?  I don't think Canada is more left wing than much of Europe was in 70s, we are definitely more conservative than that, but I mean in present as we are swinging left while most other countries (not all though) are swinging right.

Well, the UK tories seem to be moving to the left in a pretty noticeable way. They spearheaded the G7 agreement on standardizing corporate tax and combating tax havens, and just the other day, Boris Johnson called for a "greener, more equitable, and more feminist recovery". Johnson's domestic policies don't strike me as particularly right-wing either. I find this interesting because usually the CPC is to the left of the UK Tories, but I think the CPC's base has gotten more GOP-esque in a way that really disadvantages them in a country like Canada.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French
2. Anglo politicians in North America, if anything, try to sound more working class than they actually are. This isn't the UK where everyone drops their regional inflections to speak a proper RP

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French

While this may be true, I find it incredibly easy to tell the difference between a Parisian accent and a Quebec accent, and I am in no way fluent in French. Anyone who makes even the slightest effort to train their ear will immediately be able to tell the difference. It's fairly easy to tell the difference when they're speaking English too (e.g. do they pronounce th's like z's or d's?)

Also, if he is old, the fisherman from Gaspe won't have a Quebec accent, but a Maritime/New Brunswick/Acadian one.

My point is more that most English Canadians don't know/care what a politician sounds like while speaking French, so the notion that speaking a less polished French would hurt Quebec's reputation in the RoC makes no sense

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

With Greens infighting, I cannot see how this ends well for them.  Mind you BQ faced similar problem back around 2017, but at least it was a majority so enough time to change leaders and recover.  Greens lack that.  Wouldn't be surprised if Paul Manly's seat goes NDP.  Elizabeth May's seat is a tougher one as not exactly favourable to any of the other three parties.  A bit too affluent for NDP although possible but BC NDP is more moderate than federal NDP.  Liberals are very weak on Vancouver Island so seems unlikely.  Tories have won the riding in past, but Greater Victoria area has really shifted left in last decade.  More importantly Saanich-Gulf Islands has a lot of your educated well to do types and that group not just in Canada, but globally has really swung left over last decade. 

Overall probably good news for NDP as a lot of Green supporters are types who dislike both Liberals and Tories so I see NDP benefitting most.  Liberals could get some too as a fair bit of overlap.  Probably Tories being most harm as weaker splits although ironically on a lot of issues, Green voters aren't that left wing so if O'Toole runs on a moderate enough platform, there is some potential, but still overall probably a net loss for party. 

By my understanding, Bloc got saved in 2019 by the politically astute and dangerously charismatic YFB. There was also a vacuum for them to exploit - the Liberals were declining in popularity, Scheer was an awful fit for Quebec in so many ways, and the NDP was spiraling in Quebec. I don't think such a vacuum exists for the Greens now though, both the LPC and NDP are polling better than their 2019 results.

Also, the Bloc is (rightly) seen as a party that can actually win seats in Quebec and play a serious role in national politics. Whereas for the Greens, even if the events of the Atwin affair hadn't happened, they're just not taken seriously.

I think the Green collapse will help the Liberals most on balance, even if Green voters are more likely to switch to the NDP. Most of the seats that hold the keys to a LPC majority are LPC-CPC races, so even a minor consolidation of the centre-left vote could have a noticeable impact.