Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The US appears to give up on negotiating for the transfer of any Soviet jets and further argues that they wouldn’t be particularly useful: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155

It would have been much better if the various branches of the US government had communicated with each other before making overtures to Poland that they would consider too dangerous for their own country. If there was any chance of Poland making the transfer without US support, it is likely a lot smaller now that they know the US wouldn’t do it and would possibly abandon Poland in any conflict started over it.

John Kirby also claims the US is open to working with other allies to boost Ukraine’s air defences in other ways. Hopefully, this means medium-to-long range Soviet/Russian SAMs (and possibly Bulgaria’s Tochka ballistic missiles) - but signs of this are scant. The $13.6 billion budget should cover back-fills for the countries that would be giving theirs up.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1501507467389329412?s=20&t=V4JzMhwQ...

They’ve done better:

https://www.twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1501165913772634121

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

They wouldn’t be that useful in theory, but in theory, the Ukrainian Airforce should have lost the capability to fly anything over a week ago. A deal w.r.t. Polish jets could be scaled to the Russian jets held by Bulgaria, Slovakia, the USA and potentially those held by other countries.

I am quite confident the increased threat of war as a result is insignificant, given the previous support you’ve mentioned, the Romanian return of a Ukrainian fighter jet and Cold War precedent. If the US government genuinely disagreed with that (and I’m not ruling out ulterior/monetary/“loss of secret NATO technology” motives), it was incredibly irresponsible to encourage Poland to take such a risk.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So back in the early Cold War, the US needed to get its hands on a MiG-15 to test its capabilities so it launched the aptly-named "Operation Moolah" to offer $100K to any Eastern Bloc pilot who would defect with one. A Polish pilot flew his plane to Denmark in early 1953 and received a bounty, plus political asylum in the UK and later the US: he lived in Pennsylvania until his death and owned a valve factory and a race track. A few weeks after the end of the Korean War, a North Korean pilot, who claimed to be unware of Moolah, defected with his MiG and got the 100K.

Maybe we could offer something similar for Russian pilots, tankers, and SAM/electronic warfare operators? We know their morale isn't great and their command is more than transparent that it doesn't give a sh[inks] about them. At this point, one million dollars plus political asylum in the Western Country of your choice if you defect with your vehicle or aircraft, or 100K plus political asylum for yourself and your immediate family if you desert, surrender, and turn over your weapons. For sure cheaper than actually fighting, plus we know that Russian conscripts aren't enthusiastic about the War (which surprised me, I really expected they'd do a better job indoctrinating them), and we know that many young Russians want to move to the West.

The Ukrainians have already made, and are maintaining, this exact offer for anyone who can give them a Russian aircraft.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

At last! With the jets proposal dead, the West is finally looking at sending ex-Soviet systems to Ukraine. The short-range Osa and long-range S-300 are confirmed to be among those under consideration. A European diplomat has suggested countries that shift these systems to Ukraine could receive Western-made alternatives.

This should have been done a lot earlier, and the jets discussion needn’t have stopped all others, but better late than never.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

At last! With the jets proposal dead, the West is finally looking at sending ex-Soviet systems to Ukraine. The short-range Osa and long-range S-300 are confirmed to be among those under consideration. A European diplomat has suggested countries that shift these systems to Ukraine could receive Western-made alternatives.

This should have been done a lot earlier, and the jets discussion needn’t have stopped all others, but better late than never.

 Good. Now send the f****** jets, Joe!

I should point out that “looking into” is not the same thing as any sort of deal. This may go the way of the jets; the “airspace escalation” fear isn’t there but working out what replaces these SAMs could be complicated and expensive. Hopefully, the EU joint fund/purchase system can cover some of it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Vladimir Putin wants foreign fighter volunteers to come to the front and fight for Russia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-11/putin-holds-meeting-with-russian-security-council-west-ukraine/100904764

Must be running out of troops for certain jobs.

A paratrooper unit from the Central African Republic, where Wagner was previously deployed, has announced its willingness to fight in the video below. It’s unclear to me whether that’s just a PR stunt or whether Russia intends to deploy CAR forces in due course:

https://www.twitter.com/war_noir/status/1502071098468442115
Russia has released another video featuring Syrian volunteers. They appear to be ~50 lightly armed and I’m not sure whether they are unfortunate paramilitaries or part of the Syrian Arab Army proper:

https://www.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502232208781762560
I don’t think either of these deployments would help much, even if Russia managed to rustle up the 16,000 Syrians it claims to be amassing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

It would probably radicalise some racist Ukrainians and boost Azov recruitment, which could then be used to justify the invasion that had already happened.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

It would probably radicalise some racist Ukrainians and boost Azov recruitment, which could then be used to justify the invasion that had already happened.

And this is almost certainly why they’re recruiting and sending in Africans as opposed to say, Serbs, Armenians, or Central Asians.

That being said I’m not sure how practical getting them to Ukraine is at this point.

I disagree on that. It might be a benefit, but the main reasons are:

- Life is considered cheaper, and soldiers often more readily available, in poorer countries that were recently warzones
- Russia, through its military or PMCs, has been recently and directly involved in the Syrian/CAR conflicts in a way it has not been in Serbia, Armenia* or most of Central Asia. This gives it a lot of leverage.

I have seen multiple unconfirmed reports that among the Syrians coming to Ukraine are the Tiger Forces. I’m only bothering to mention this because they include photographs - if true, this is quite surprising as they are Assad’s best troops by a very long way. They might actually be useful in Ukraine.

*They are involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, but primarily as peacekeepers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not sure this will be enough for Lukashenko to convince his generals, but getting Belarus involved makes more sense than recruiting ill-equipped fighters half a world away.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1502293369078358024

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have seen multiple unconfirmed reports that among the Syrians coming to Ukraine are the Tiger Forces. I’m only bothering to mention this because they include photographs - if true, this is quite surprising as they are Assad’s best troops by a very long way. They might actually be useful in Ukraine.

This guy doesn't have a perfect track record, but I'm now reasonably confident that Russia is trying to recruit from the Tiger Forces:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502306598034849796
A risk for Assad, but if any Syrian troops could be useful, it'd be these guys. They've been told they'll get the armour/artillery they're familiar with once they're in Ukraine (plausible enough). They led most of the SAA offensives against IS (and most against the rebels after the Russian intervention) and retook Aleppo. Their leader is probably a paedophile, judging by his photos with progressively younger males.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502350416897576967

If I were Poland, I might have bought that line before the US explicitly refused to send the jets themselves on grounds of escalation, but I wouldn't buy it now. Heavier arms might well be sent to Ukraine, but I don't expect this to change anyone's position on sending jets.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The WSJ reports: The Ukraine MiG-29 Fiasco Gets Worse - Biden personally vetoed the delivery of jets for fear of provoking Putin.

I don't think this is much of a story (it's written like an opinion piece, tbh), but it is interesting (and a little dispiriting) that the decision to veto it was actively signed off by him to avoid escalation as opposed to being a result of the Pentagon speaking out against it and simply not getting challenged.

It seemed odd to me at the time that it was the Pentagon saying no.

From the timeline, it looks like that they publicly advised against it at first (hence the public statement casting doubt) and then Biden took their advice when asked to make the call.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1502413527579262976

The British and American governments are obviously not neutral actors, but this report tracks with the footage emerging online (I haven't seen any reports jets doing bombing runs over airports, but there have been a fair few cruise missile barrages - total launches probably number in the hundreds or thousands by now). Russia's stock of standoff munitions boils down to glide bombs (they have one type introduced in 2018 - presumably not that many have been produced yet) and ballistic/cruise missiles. Prior to the war, Russia had the world's largest inventory of these missiles if you count recently retired missiles likely to remain in serviceable condition (the Tochkas, for instance, were retired at the end of 2020 but a few Russian launches have happened so far in this conflict).

The upshot for Ukraine is that Russia is likely to run out of these weapons faster than any other kind, and I'd guess the supply of its most modern ballistic missile (the Iskander missile) is likely to be quite low at this point. Outlasting Russia's standoff munitions and having some air defences/air force intact once their stocks are depleted could be critical.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502599092748365825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

What does that mean. The arms will be destroyed on NATO real estate? If Ukraine real estate, of course they would be attacked one would think. Or does that mean taking out NATO planes delivery the items at airports in Ukraine?  Anyone the state of play here?

No supplies are flown into Ukraine. They are flown into Poland and transported by truck into Ukraine (quite possibly by Ukranians?), where they are already military targets.

Which, incidentally, seems like it would be the real hiccup in the fighter deal. How do you get planes from Ramstein Airbase to Ukraine without flying them into Ukraine?

You take the wings off and truck them in (maybe you could tow them in intact?) or let Ukrainian pilots fly them from Ramstein without munitions.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At least it didn't drive off a bridge. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502697207266484228?s=20&t=7iF0i46Jv8r...

This is an old photo.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

Channeling Prince William huh? Still believe in the White Man's Burden?

No idea what this babbling is supposed to mean, but as a European I find a war on my own continent in a country I visited multiple times quite a bit more scary than elsewhere. Sue me.

I'm referring to the racist statement made by Prince William a few days ago calling war in Europe "alien". Saying that war and destruction is familiar to Asia and Africa but foreign to Europe is channeling white supremacy and the very essence of the "White Man's Burden" concept used to justify colonialism a century ago.

Britain’s Prince William drew sharp criticism after he said Wednesday that it was “alien” to see war in Europe. Part of the backlash came from a string of media reports implying that he was saying that such conflicts were more common in Africa and Asia, though video of his comments didn’t show the comparison.

Local media reported that he made the remark during a visit to the Ukrainian Cultural Center in London. For Britons of his generation, he said, “it’s very alien to see this in Europe.”

“We are all behind you,” he reportedly said, expressing support for the people of Ukraine, who have been subjected to widespread bombings by Russia during its invasion of their country.

It is tone deaf, but (and perhaps I am reading this too charitably) I think it is nothing to do with the white man’s burden concept and everything to do with his relatively young age (hence “for Britons of his generation”) and the post-WW2 promise of “never again.” Europe was historically amongst the bloodiest of continents and that culminated in its destruction in the 1940s, but the last real war here was the Balkan conflict(s) over 20 years ago*. It’s not hard to see how European war would seem alien to someone his age, whose memories of that war are likely to be foggy.

*Your average joe probably doesn’t consider the Caucasus states European, but you can make a fair case that the Azerbaijani-Armenian and Russo-Georgian wars have been overlooked.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Poland_invoking_NATO_article_5_meme.png

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502868126085570560?s=20&t=R7mVaon0k...

So it turned out to be the right decision for the US and other NATO countries to tread lightly in supplying Ukraine, lest they be hit in attacks like this and then be forced to join the war. The people on this forum who have been strongly advocating otherwise are now revealed to be warmongers. What a contrast between now and 20 years ago when these same people were likely to be strongly opposing the war in Iraq.

Poland did not and almost certainly will not become involved in a war as a result of Russia striking Western Ukraine, and Russia must strike Western Ukraine if it is to take it. Attacks on Western Ukrainian military bases could only be avoided if Ukrainians won in the east or the country surrendered after the fall of the east. They become increasingly likely as Russia marches west and Ukraine runs out of air defences.

Providing only light/hand-held armaments to Ukraine did not prevent Russian strikes on Western Ukraine (quite predictably - military imports are not the only reason to strike that area). If anything, this indicates appeasement (avoiding provision of heavy weapons to discourage strikes on Western Ukraine) doesn’t work.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So it looks confirmed that the base attacked in Western Ukraine near the Polish border posted upthread was in fact the Yavoriv military complex and currently where many of the foreign fighters coming to Ukraine are being trained:

Video shows the moment of an attack on a Ukrainian military base near the Polish border.

A military base in western Ukraine known for training fighters who have traveled to the country from abroad was severely damaged by attacks Sunday morning, according to videos verified by The Times. The facility is about 12 miles from the Polish border.

Footage sent to The Times by a fighter at the base showed flames rising into the night sky, along with the sounds of several large explosions.

Later videos show several structures almost destroyed, or still burning, at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center in Yavoriv, as well as a large crater next to the camp’s training facility and sports fields.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/13/world/ukraine-russia-war/video-shows-the-moment-of-an-attack-on-a-ukrainian-military-base-near-the-polish-border

The base attacked in western Ukraine has been a hub for foreign militaries.

The base outside Lviv that was attacked by Russian forces early on Sunday was a key link between Ukraine’s armed forces and Western militaries before the war — and has become an important logistics hub and training center for foreign fighters since Russia’s invasion began.

A Ukrainian military official said that up to 1,000 foreign fighters were training at the base — the International Peacekeeping and Security Center, which is also known as the Yavoriv military complex — as part of the new International Legion that Ukraine has formed to help fight Russia.

Before the war, troops from the United States, Britain, Canada, Poland, Latvia and other Western allies trained Ukrainian forces there, starting in the 1990s. One of the buildings that was hit in the attack was in an area where American, Canadian and other foreign military instructors had stayed before the invasion, according to a broadcast journalist for the U.S. Army who covered multinational training at the base.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/world/europe/yavoriv-military-base-ukraine.html

These new foreign fighters are of dubious value. Even if individually competent, most of them probably haven't trained for long together (and I'm guessing some of them haven't trained much at all). My guess is that they were hit to dissuade more from coming rather than because those specific fighters were actually a threat.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These new foreign fighters are of dubious value. Even if individually competent, most of them probably haven't trained for long together (and I'm guessing some of them haven't trained much at all). My guess is that they were hit to dissuade more from coming rather than because those specific fighters were actually a threat.

there is a lot of overlap in western tactics and training (meaning everyone does it the American way).  There is no reason a dozen Canadians, 9 Americans, 4 Brits and a German couldn't work well together.

There are language barriers, people without formal military training, unstable individuals who are more likely to pull rank (because of the lack of a long-established chain of command, among other reasons), a lack of familiar gear (especially air support/the kind of heavy weaponry Western armies are used to), and a probable imbalance in the types of soldiers arriving compared to your average unit in a standing army. There are also a lot of fighters who never received Western-style training - a lot of the people come from countries that are or were recently in Russia's sphere of influence, and even more of them never trained in NATO/other joint military exercises.

On top of all this: the Afghans were trained the American way; that didn't mean they actually did things that way. The foreign legion will probably work more cohesively than the volunteers joining the Syrian rebels or the Afghan mujahideen in the early days, but they'll still be unreliable at first, IMO.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

Every person in that room is either a Fed or an informant.

You underestimate how stupid contrarianism can become.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1503166730356629505?s=20&t=TZIJ7i6KN9a...

There's a pretty strong case to be made that journalism should go where armies do not want it to. Tracey is a moron and Russia is bound to know whatever he and other journos know about US activity at that base regardless of whether they report on it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1503329281170153477
An Orlan-10 drone flies into Romania, possibly as a result of electronic warfare causing a malfunction. Ukraine has captured a few intact, but this is almost certainly Russian.

As with the (probably Ukrainian) Tu-141 drone, no one was hurt and escalation as a result isn’t remotely likely. Responsible diplomacy will prevent escalation even in the event that future accidents/crashes kill people in other countries, but this event becomes more likely as Russia moves west and resorts to its less accurate, older missiles. The main risk they bring is not world war, but local tragedies. I hope border towns are prepared to protect their populations from stray ordinance.