Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Well, I believe Stingers are still on the US weapons shopping list in terms of SAMs.

fyi... (Just in case folks want some additional links / info)

I did post a couple different links and excerpts from news articles earlier today on both military supplies to Ukraine and EU jets.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503917#msg8503917

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503848#msg8503848

I considered posting the first of those, but at the time, the Polish President’s statement was slightly ambiguous: it could be interpreted to permit the transfer (by land) of formerly Polish planes donated to Ukraine. The Polish PM only ruled this out recently.

Stingers do have surface-to-air missiles,, but they rely on MANPADS systems, which means they have a short range so can’t do much about aircraft above 5km (most warplanes, as opposed to helicopters). The bigger systems that Ukraine uses for long-range air defence are ex-Soviet and Russian, and there are a fair few of these slowly being phased out in Eastern bloc countries.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Remember Russia is also depleting its stocks.

Tracking the confirmed losses so far, it seems they’ve lost fewer planes than Ukraine from a stock several orders of magnitude larger (SAMs are a slightly different case - Russia may have lost more, but their stocks are still more impressive than Ukraine’s by some margin).

The respective states of the airforces and the damage done to them are not really comparable, unless Russia starts running out of jet fuel (there’s no indication this will happen but their ground forces’ logistics were bad enough for it to happen to their vehicles pretty early).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

40 Mile Convoy Update


So I posted earlier regarding some more detailed analysis of the composition of the vast "40 Mile Convoy" heading towards Kiev, and assuming that some of you have already read it (and don't want to have to reread that article), will simply post a link here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8504073#msg8504073

Now, we have The Guardian with a few additional data analytical points, which I don't believe anybody else has posted.

(Excerpt from link at bottom live feed)

Dead centre of the picture, circulated by the satellite company Maxar Technologies on Sunday, a small clearing is visible, and next to it, on the road heading south towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a small proportion of a vast convoy of Russian military vehicles – estimated to be 40 miles long – accompanied by 15,000 troops.

In places, the military vehicles can be seen three abreast, almost blocking the road. Other images of the convoy seem to explain its belligerent purpose: fuel tankers and trucks carrying food, ammunition and soldiers.

Elsewhere, just visible are the shapes of towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, BMP3 armoured carriers and Russian main tanks. In places you can see the tracks of Russian vehicles that have gone off the road – perhaps to scout against attack from the flanks – visible in the fresh snow covering the fields.

....

And in some images released by Maxar on Monday, troops appeared to have arrived at where they would halt, deploying in camps outside the city, including in and around the town of Zdvyzhivka, to the north of Kyiv

....

On Tuesday the head of the convoy was reportedly passing near the heavily contested Hostomel airbase 17 miles north of Kyiv’s city centre. There are fears that the force in the convoy could be deployed against the nearby district of Obolonskyi, the adjacent village of Horenka, and the main roads running through Obolonskyi towards the city’s centre.

....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/vast-russian-military-convoy-kyiv-siege-ukraine


Your Humble Servant NOVA merely passing on the news.....

I’m getting exceptionally pissed than Ukraine wasn’t given buckets of drones and MLRS. We are sitting here watching the progress of the to be butchers of Kyiv and no one seems able to do a damn thing about it. A few Reapers would have cleaned the whole thing up.

The stated reasons for not giving more aerial capabilities don't quite add up, IMO.

The Slovaks don't want to part with their operational fighters (while they train with F-16s) until Poland takes over the responsibility of defending their air space. The Bulgarians don't want to part with their operational fighters until their own F-16 training is complete. If Western Europe and the USA were committed to helping Ukraine with the conventional phase of the war (our Foreign Minister, for instance, said the UK doesn't rule out giving Ukraine jets - something that just doesn't make sense), these reasons would be quickly resolved by backfilling the air forces with better jets and promising a few more to sweeten the deal.

Poland is the only one of this trio to state that its primary reason for refusing transfers is avoiding escalation by provision of lethal aid. However, it is already providing and facilitating the delivery of lethal aid that is greater (in $, but not strategic, terms) than the jets. Obviously the move could anger Putin, but it is hardly without precedent and it could quieten the pundits who play with fire by pushing for a no-fly zone. It's not as much of an escalation for NATO as Poland claims, but it could focus his ire on Poland in particular.

What makes the situation so odd is that all of the Russian planes in their possession are now going to get a whole lot more difficult to maintain. The main supply of spare parts and maintenance crews for these was Russia, and the backup option was Ukraine. Neither will have much to offer to NATO states anymore, so these planes will become prohibitively expensive to operate over the next few years.

My guess is that some states in this chain of countries - the countries who could backfill the air forces with Soviet planes and/or the potential donors themselves - have decided that helping the conventional war isn't worthwhile and marking their countries as the firmest supporters of Ukraine isn't desirable. If Western leaders have taken this view, then most of the military aid's primary purpose hasn't been sent to help with the war, but to flood the country with armaments for the insurgency that they believe will follow.

This would track with the military aid given to Ukraine so far consisting mostly of light and portable (but by no means cheap) weaponry. MANPADS, RPGs and anti-tank missiles aren't sufficient for counteroffensives or even aerial defence, but they do nicely for desperate men running around in the woods who hold no territory.

If this is the approach the West is taking, there are multiple serious problems with it. The most obvious is that the more blatantly Ukraine's defence is abandoned by its so-called allies (assuming it is eventually lost), the more demoralised Ukrainians are likely to be if and when an insurgency kicks off.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

If Nazi Germany and US or UK both have nuclear weapons in 1939, how would you respond to the German invasion of Poland?

This would be an obvious exception, as would any actual genocide in Ukraine. But both of these are pointless hypotheticals, because one is in the past and the other is never going to happen.

There's a genocide going on in China right now. Is it an obvious exception?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

They are weaker than the Cuban, Iranian and North Korean sanctions, both in the number of states on board with them and the extent of the sanctions enforced by the states that are on board with them. This was inevitable to some extent because Russia's economy is much bigger than those countries', but the relative lack of restrictions on energy - the backbone of the Russian economy - means they aren't going to dissuade Russia's leaders from their conquest.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Bayraktar TB2 drone has proven highly effective in Ukraine. Analysts like Oryxspioenkop believe they had around 20 units delivered at the start of the conflict (collectively, they ordered 60 in 2019 and 2020). Ukraine also had orders for the newer and larger Bayraktar Akinci, although none have been delivered yet.

TuAF flights to Poland in the last week have been left unexplained, as Turkey is not supplying Ukraine with military aid. However - and take this with a grain of salt - the Ukranian Defence Minister has claimed the country has now received more TB2s: https://www.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1498971260834959361
Given that they had already been ordered, this would not qualify as military aid. However, I wonder whether they are being sent to Ukraine ahead of schedule/if Turkey is giving from its own stock instead of waiting for the production line. The Ukranian conflict has done wonders for the TB2’s reputation and the Ukranian government is the only manufacturer of the engines needed for the Akinci.

I shall update this thread if and when Turkey responds to the claim or confirmation of new TB2s is found by some other means.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Soviet T34 tanks of the 3rd Guards Tank Army on the streets of Lviv

For a minute, I thought Ukraine had brought T-34s back into service. The Donetsk proxies used at least one.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Yanukovych has said he wants Crimea back in Ukraine. He doesn’t bow low enough to be reinstalled - I think this is clickbait.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499020076913250309?s=20&t=Pu9hb-YywT...
Russians have been shelling Mariupol for 15 or more hours, indiscriminately targeting residential districts. Hundreds of civilians believed to be dead.

This will be repeated in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and any other major city that puts up resistance. War crimes are the only strategy the Russian monsters know.

If Russian military inadequacy has reduced them to shelling residential areas, then that requires a direct military response.

I don't think in good conscience, we can maintain direct non-intervention when the target is almost exclusively civilians. This can be UN as opposed to NATO intervention.

This is an ahistorical take. Although the Russian tactics and machinery allowed for far worse in Grozny and Aleppo than other places, there has been mass shelling of areas where civilians outnumber combatants since mass shelling was possible and UN intervention has often been vetoed (or simply not called for, in certain cases). If “direct military action” were required against these tactics, NATO would have to intervene against its own allies in multiple theatres. I’m not saying a case can’t be made for mass humanitarian intervention, but it’s a case most countries will have difficulty advancing or accepting, and the public won’t be behind it once intervention starts at the scale required.

Even if nuclear weapons weren’t used, it’s possible the scale of destruction resulting from a conventional war between Russia and NATO could outstrip anything possible in this localised conflict (I’d expect fewer civilian casualties and more military ones). Surely it is better for the hawks to try everything that isn’t likely to cause a nuclear holocaust instead of escalating from 10 to 100 - there’s a lot of sanctions and military aid our governments are neglecting to consider, but the pundits keep agitating for a no-fly zone and some kind of “direct action.”

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another day, another preventable tragedy.
The only question now is how far can Putin go without being challenged? Unfortunately this is an experiment in watching what a dictator who threatens with nukes can get away with. Make no mistake, China, Iran, and North Korea are watching.

Yes, I fear the experiment is whether, with the whole world watching, the West has the stomach to do nothing further while Putin fires missiles into Ukraine's major cities reducing them to dust ala Grozny until the explosions are just breaking down the rubble into smaller bits because nothing else is left - including people.  We now know to Putin is enough of a monster to do exactly that if he thinks it is necessary to restore Russia to its former glory as he sees it and that he can get away with it. How much poison can the Western stomach tolerate until it vomits it all out?

You read the words from the Western posters on here, the answer is simple, there is no red line. Putin can do whatever he wants to Ukraine so long as it does not hurt us. Those who do believe in the continued existence of the Ukrainian people ought to hope these opinions are more fringe than anything. We will see. God save Kyiv.

Obviously the West needs to do more for Ukraine, but you need to keep the destruction in perspective. The bombardment of Grozny was, at its time, the most destructive urban campaign (for civilians) since WWII. It killed under 10% of the city’s population, an appalling figure, but also one that speaks to how resilient and resourceful people can be even as their cities are flattened and life collapses all around them. People still live in Aleppo, and some managed to stay there for the whole war.

The war crimes in Mariupol are punitive and meant to intimidate, but even thermobaric bombardment is not in the same ballpark as death camps. A majority of its people are likely to survive this conflict between Ukraine and Russia. A nuclear conflict could ultimately kill more of them, so conventional warfare should only be considered (if at all) once all other options have been exhausted.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Like the Air Force, it seems Ukraine’s Navy still remains in what is likely to be an extremely degraded (but operational) state. Verified accounts have been posting pictures of the ship, but this user is the only one to (mis?) identify its type.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Harry_Boone/status/1499044733171163141
The Ukranian Navy was in a bad way after losing most of its power in Crimea. It was hit terribly on the first couple of days of the latest invasion, and Russia claimed it was destroyed on February 24.

It doesn’t pose as much of a risk to Russia as the remaining air force and AA, but that it’s still operating at all reflects badly on the RuAF and the Black Sea Fleet.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So looks like the Fighter jet deal may not be dead.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499083675463467009

It might not be dead in Poland, but what's being blamed for the delay (besides what should be a relatively simple removal of transponders) is "paperwork" (lol!), Ukraine talking about it (it wouldn't be easy to hide in the long term), and pilot preference for a plane that may soon be inviable for Western airforces. It also seems uncertain whether the depleted Polish AF would be reinforced by other countries with Western-made jets.

The political will for this seems too weak for it to get off the ground (so to speak) in time to make a difference. Putin is right to hold our governments in contempt.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I believe Eritrea also supported the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Eritrea has a history of invading its neighbours.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Apparently a Romanian fighter went missing over the Black Sea. They sent a helicopter to do a search and rescue and that went missing too...

It could be a result of bad weather conditions, but the timing this incident raises alarm bells.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1499115003579932675

The Romanian government reported the helicopter crashed due to bad weather shortly after taking off in search of the jet (all 5 aboard died). The jet has not been found, but the Romanians lost contact with it shortly after it was told to return to base due to bad weather.

This is probably the first incident since 1945 in which an aircraft and the aircraft sent to look for it crashed due to bad weather.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Su-24s are 1970s-vintage strike aircraft with the NATO reporting name "Fencer". If those are managing to strike Russian convoys, then their air defence is shocking.

Russia still uses some Su-24 - some of its fleet have been sighted (and a number allegedly shot down) in Ukraine. It’s ageing, but with the right modernisations, it’s perfectly serviceable.

This goes to show how badly the ex-Soviet bloc jets are being overlooked as a potential boost to Ukraine. They’re not state-of-the-art, but even vintage jets could make a difference in the right hands.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

They’re attacking the plant to damage Ukraine’s access to and control of key infrastructure, not to blow it up. The building on fire is (was?) administrative, but this is still obviously very dangerous. Without power to keep the coolant going, there is risk of a meltdown.

IIRC there are another 14 active nuclear power plants besides this one and none of them have been captured, so there’s a whole gauntlet of potential disasters ahead.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The German Strela “surface-to-air missiles” are just Strela-2 MANPADS, though the journalism was sloppy enough that this wasn’t clear without a fair bit of digging. Ukraine also operates Strela-3 MANPADS and Strela-1/Strea-10 short-range SAM vehicles, all of which have a bit more range.

Journalists should probably stop referring to MANPADS as SAMs with no clarification that they are MANPADS, or at least specify that they are short-range that won’t hit most jets.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Perhaps a bit optimistic on the other hand seeing the amount of trouble that northern convoy is having with it's supplies and the state of the Russian economy and i have seen others (like that Marco Rubio tweet) saying similar enough that i can't help but wonder if he won't be right.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1499822066098655234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

It does look like they are running out of precision-guided munitions and therefore having to fly their warplanes lower. Oryx is quite strict in only recording losses he can visually confirm, but he reports a pretty serious uptick in downed Russian aircraft, including the Su-34 (brought into service in 2014):

https://www.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1500073520516186114

“About to collapse” is likely propaganda, but the Western failure to provide longer-range SAMs looks increasingly short-sighted and mean.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There's a ceasefire in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1500059859961749508?s=20&t=I9nkecXVn...
Apparently it’s been broken by the Russians, preventing the evacuation of civilians.

Aleppo moment. Not remotely surprising.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There's a decent chance he'll run out of bombs first. Something has gone very wrong with Russian logistics.

No matter how badly they screw up logistics, they can’t run out of bombs. Even IS never ran out of bombs - they ran out of bigger ones, but there was always the capacity to make large, dangerous car bombs. When was the last time someone ran out of bombs?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There's a decent chance he'll run out of bombs first. Something has gone very wrong with Russian logistics.

No matter how badly they screw up logistics, they can’t run out of bombs. Even IS never ran out of bombs - they ran out of bigger ones, but there was always the capacity to make large, dangerous car bombs. When was the last time someone ran out of bombs?

There are bombs and there are bombs that you can put on an aircraft or fire from an artillery launcher.

The Americans have had issue in the past.

It’s possible, but I’m still skeptical they could run out of dumb bombs. They probably don’t take much to maintain (not as much as “smart” bombs, anyway), which means Russia schools be able to fall back on whatever remains of its vast Soviet stockpiles.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1500139415062069257?cxt=HHwWkoCyxbK2y...

When will Josh Hawley resign?

He is shameless, but not worth criticising while Biden continues to sell Ukraine out for lower gas prices.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Putin will be a DEAD MAN walking once the United States has a Republican President in 2025. Given the Comments made by Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina there is every indication once the US switches Power to a Republican President that President could then authorize a Special Operation just like Obama did with Bin Laden in 2010 to capture or kill Putin.

Remember: Soft Joe Biden was even against capturing or killing Bin Laden in 2010 and Obama had to overrule him!

Trump will hug and kiss him to death?

Trump will not be President. Pence, DeSantis I suspect could indeed authorize such a Special Operation. Putin has to stand TRAIL, period!

Sure, because it will be super easy taking Putin out.

Lindsey Graham and Mike Pence can talk all they want, they don`t hold any responsibility.

Biden on the other hand has to deal with reality. He has to be carefull with all his moves. Because WWIII and nuclear war are real possibilities.  

Failure to sanction gas and oil is not to prevent WWIII. This administration has openly sent deadly weaponry to Ukraine, which was more likely (although still extremely unlikely) to start WWIII.

This is about consumerism and Biden's reelection, or (as Scholz's administration put it) "social peace in Germany."

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/angry_staffer/status/1499946090644353026?s=21
Maybe, about those jets?

There was this today, which strongly implies the jets haven't been sent in any significant numbers (if at all):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1500174453115953157
A number of Senators have started publicly calling for it to happen, which is good news for the UkrAF if it can hold out long enough for support to build in the right places. Not sure why Zelensky isn't also demanding more long-range SAMs; perhaps the price tag makes that a less achievable goal.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1500230617404956678

Vogel writes that there are discussions to use Venezuelan oil as a substitute for Russian oil (presumably, after lifting sanctions on one and imposing them on the other). These are different kinds of crude oil (Venezuela's is heavier and dirtier), so I'm not sure this would actually work.