MO - Remington/Missouri Scout: Blunt +10, Greitens +8 over Sifton

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-Statewide-Public-Opinion-Deck-021921.pptx

February 17-18
954 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Blunt 50%
Sifton 40%
Undecided 10%

Greitens 49%
Sifton 41%
Undecided 10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

LOL, this is super safe R.

Biden approval: 43/53 (-10)
Parson approval: 50/38 (+12)

Safe R for now, but there might be a path if Greitens wins the primary and Kander enters upon Greitens picking up steam. The Republicans would still be heavily favoured and Greitens is unlikely to win the primary to begin with, but the only primary poll suggests he could be a viable challenger (December 2019, Blunt 43-Greitens 32).

It's definitely a primary to watch. The NRSC will want to avoid another Senator as rebellious as Hawley.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

LOL, this is super safe R.

Biden approval: 43/53 (-10)
Parson approval: 50/38 (+12)

Safe R for now, but there might be a path if Greitens wins the primary and Kander enters upon Greitens picking up steam. The Republicans would still be heavily favoured and Greitens is unlikely to win the primary to begin with, but the only primary poll suggests he could be a viable challenger (December 2019, Blunt 43-Greitens 32).

It's definitely a primary to watch. The NRSC will want to avoid another Senator as rebellious as Hawley.

The problem for Kander is that most of the Trump/Kander voters from 2016 are no longer gettable for a democrat, especially in a federal race happening during a Biden midterm.

Lower-turnout midterms may deliver a more ticket-splitting electorate (at the very least, the Senate races will be the primary drivers of turnout as opposed to the presidential race).

With that caveat, I broadly agree. It is why Kander would be DOA against almost any Republican. Greitens, however, was impeached and removed for fairly clear reasons which are likely to be electorally toxic. I don't think the reports would be enough to bring him down if he got through a primary beforehand, but I'm not ruling out that he could suffer a narrow, Roy Moore-style defeat.