2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Tillis overperformance has continued to narrow to +0.2% but it's not going to matter if Trump keeps improving.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

F in the chat for Bollier. KSSEN called for strong candidate Marshall.

Which meme is next? The Bipartisan Bills Bump?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone answer me, will Susan Collins win?

Pretty likely, she’s winning by 15 points with Biden leading by 7 points. Looks like her moderate bona fides still exist somehow.

NYT estimates somewhat different percentages of the votes are in for MESEN and MEPRES so if I'm not mistaken, those results are not directly comparable.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

State-level polling errors are totally understandable but what is up with national surveys? It's still early but they look to have seriously missed the mark. They didn't really do that in 2016.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oregon decriminalizes all drugs

https://www.vox.com/2020/11/3/21514828/oregon-drug-decriminalization-measure-110-results?

More than a Biden admin would have done anyway. Extremely good news.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

AOC calls out Biden and Democratic Party over failure to win Latinx vote:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/aoc-twitter-biden-election-results-latino-voters-b1578094.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1604465253

lol AOC.
You aren't electable on nationwide level, why are you trying to preach?

Our wing had the keys to win the Hispanic vote pretty much everywhere outside of Florida.

Not really. If your wing got the keys, then the soft Latino vote probably would have been spooked even more and we'd be even farther off from winning FL.

He literally said except Florida. Even if Mr. Electable pulls it out narrowly the Senate is f***ed. "NeverBernie" trolls have no room to assert themselves tonight.

Look at how the rest of the party’s candidates are doing. This isn’t “Mr. Electable’s” problem.  Why is the dog so difficult for people to see but this has very little to do with ideology or electability?

It is Biden's problem more than any House candidate's because split-ticket voting is rather rare and the presidential race tends to drive turnout and define the dynamics of the downballot.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ohio called by the AP for Trump

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

When will the WWC see the dividends of its racism? Answer: NEVER.

When the lockdowns end

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fk Bernie, Warren, and AOC forever.

Keep broadcasting that contempt. Watch the base become smaller and more elite.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fk Bernie, Warren, and AOC forever.

Keep broadcasting that contempt. Watch the base become smaller and more elite.

They have no one to blame but themselves.

Oh, that's not fair. They can always blame us - and Russia!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MTPRES called for Trump

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fk Bernie, Warren, and AOC forever.

Keep broadcasting that contempt. Watch the base become smaller and more elite.

But how are the aforementioned folks expanding this “base”?

Maybe they aren't*, but Sanders did better with the group swinging hardest against Biden. The more Democrats spend their political capital on performative pandering (both to their own party elites and their hackneyed ideas of swing voters) and the harder they simultaneously reject economic reform, the more obviously they signal that they're not interested in seeing to basic economic needs.

*In the long term, of course, sticking to their sorts of policy plans and actually delivering for the base instead of doing nothing and then expecting people to not eventually get fed up with Democrats is a better way to keep voters in the coalition.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why call and then retract? Stupid.

Because DJT objected.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IAPRES called for Trump. IASEN remains uncalled.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL finally called for Trump. Along with IASEN.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Republicans are keeping the Senate. Real doomer hours if you actually want Democratic legislation to pass.

I guess that doesn't matter when all you care about is performativity.

Believe it or not, I don’t want the most powerful man in the world to be a dangerous incompetent idiot and wannabe dictator. That’s more important to me than the Senate, and it’s not just “performative.”

McConnell will be more powerful than Biden and he, unlike Trump, is highly competent and evil.

Sorry, but you guys blew it. Biden may eke out a narrow victory that will be largely hollow. No Democratic policy goal, judge appointment, or bill will pass. Which renders the entire primary meaningless.

But on the plus side, he will have plenty of time to eat ice cream. Make sure it's that Jeni's brand the centrist Dems weirdly obsess over.

Repealing the travel ban, reinstating DACA, and reasonable leadership on the pandemic aren’t policy goals, I guess.

There's a lot Biden could do by executive order.

He won't, though, because he's too much of an institutionalist.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Gianforte wins MTGOV.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323863787825438720
2020 brings the chaos. LET'S GOOOOOO

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323868433059057666?s=20

Collins under 50%...could get interesting with RCV involved.

MANIFESTING A GIDEON WIN.

GIDEON IS A POPULIST HERO

If we say it 1000 times here, she will surely win  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MNSEN called for Smith. Texas called for Trump

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

That is still not a guarantee.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden has got to spend the next 4 years appealing to Hispanics. Like, some of these results are embarrassing, especially against Trump.

I miss Tío Bernie.

In hindsight, Biden's poor performance in the Nevada caucuses should have been a warning sign for Democrats.

It's a primary with a lot of candidates. There's nothing to base it on really. He could have been the most popular candidate while being the first choice of few.

If he was, he'd have gotten more votes in the second/third rounds of the caucuses.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunningham's seat has gone.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Maryland Matt has won the Montanan seat

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

We've seen nothing out of AK yet.