Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I agree that Western nations’ foreign policy should account for the risk of further ethnic cleansing in Karabakh, but Armenian foreign policy means they can’t actually accept much Western help without risking Russia’s ire. Russia is much better placed to influence this conflict than most of Europe and the US and Armenia can’t afford them offering more support to Azerbaijan in the long run. We should probably not criticise them too harshly if and when they back Russia in Ukraine, but beyond economic support we probably can’t do much more.

In terms of FP, Armenia should try to win Georgia over and deepen ties with Iran. They also need to work out whether they’re going to put everything into defending Karabakh (to slow its conquest so that Russian peacekeepers can save some of it after the war in Ukraine) or fortify Armenia proper (Azerbaijan has already occupied border regions and may decide to advance further after taking Karabakh).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So any minute now the West is going to apply sanctions on Azerbaijan...right?

Azerbaijan is less likely to be sanctioned by the EU now than that any point in the recent past or near future. Along with Russia’s preoccupation, that is why they instigated this.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

That is part of the story, but it's also the godforsaken geography: except from the air, America can't credibly project power into the region. Armenia is landlocked and a non-Black Sea navy couldn't access it through Georgia because the Montreaux convention is active. The only other ways to get to it are through Azerbaijan and Turkey, which want this to happen, or Iran and Russia, which wouldn't support a direct American intervention.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These countries have some very strange allies... Alliances this weird haven't been seen since the Nigerian Civil War?

I think this one is weirder.

Russia, France, and Israel vs US, UK, Iran, and Sudan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Libyan_Civil_War

That one also had US v.s. Blackwater, since Erik Prince's mercenaries flew bomber jets (by which I mean weaponised and most likely imprecise crop dusters) for Haftar. The other side's air force also employed PMC pilots.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessarily, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.

This has nothing to do with likeability, if Armenia is defeated NK is getting ethnically cleansed.

Pure speculation on your part. Just claiming that something terrible may happen is a weak argument compared to national sovereignty/territorial integrity as core principles of international law – and since one can neither prove nor disprove it, it's a pretty pointless one as well.

The precedent is but two years old; the same dictator rules Azerbaijan and uses the rhetoric of Putin. The racist anti-Armenian trophy park (I wish I was making this up) still stands and is open to children.

Interventions have been been made on less solid accusations of impending genocide than this one. That's probably not going to happen this time, unfortunately.

Edit: the racist mannequins were removed from the military trophies park in October of last year after Armenia filed a case with the ICJ, so that's something.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't think the precedent points to any genocide or mass killings, rather to forced displacements, like in the early 90's when armenian forces took over the region and tens of thousands of azeris where forced to flee, or two years ago when armenian inhabitants evacuated the territories devolved to Azerbaijan after the ceasefire.

Ethnically Armenian inhabitants did not all choose to evacuate two years ago. They suffered multiple beheadings (all the ones that ended up on video were committed by Azerbaijani soldiers, none of whom were punished) before the last of them fled. There were also mass killings back in 1991 - the Azeris "forced to flee" weren't running from nothing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

According to Oryx, Azerbaijan just destroyed the fire control radars for Armenia’s remaining S-300PS long-range air defences. They might be able to salvage some of the lost utility by combining surviving parts with their older S-300PTs, but those are apparently significantly less capable and are probably going to be targeted next. Besides the S-300s, Armenia only has 4 Su-30 jets for long-range air defence - none of which it used in the last conflict.

Even if the conflict ends now, Azerbaijan will have succeeded in significantly reducing the capabilities of Armenia’s air defence network.

Edit: Oryx seems to have edited their article and omitted their claim that all of the remaining S-300PS batteries were struck, although they haven’t revised the number of batteries hit. These are still very costly systems to lose, especially if no one is willing/able to supply spare parts.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Armenia is reluctant to call this a war yet:

https://www.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1570008061657612288

The same minister was later reported to have said that their territorial integrity was under threat, and as a result they’d asked Russia to fulfill “some” provisions of their defensive alliance. To me, this reads like the minister thinks they won’t get CSTO support and so do not want to call on it and thereby remove the threat of CSTO support. It is possible Russia has told Armenia (through backchannels) just how much they can expect this time.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634

It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ALavrina/status/1570088233614315529?cxt=HHwWksDQ6cC7icorAAAA
It seems Kazakhstan is seeking to signal neutrality (though this is, it must be noted, a pro-Azeri talking point in practice).

A kick in the teeth for Armenia, who helped Tokayev when he activated Article 4 to clamp down on protesters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

It should be unambiguously clear that Armenia's government can, in retrospect, reasonably be blamed for underinvesting in their military and for resting on the laurels of what they attained in the 1990s for too long.

Of course, Armenia being pro-Russia making this something they deserve...that's an idea that doesn't hold up under critical analysis even from a realist perspective. One simple question pokes a huge hole in that theory, that Armenia not being pro-Russia would make the West pro-Armenia - in what world do policymakers in Washington think Azerbaijan has less to bring to the table than Armenia does?

Armenia can't rely on Washington. Washington has no means to defend the country. Armenia needs to look closer. It needs to maintain its relationships with Iran and Russia. Its current predicament is not one in which it is blameless (it has made its own share of mistakes and missteps), but it always needs Tehran and Moscow as an insurance policy to preserve its sovereignty. And that's just (geo)politics.

To an extent, this is true - but there is only so much which could have been done about it then militarily, and even less now. Perhaps if they'd been able to negotiate a more forgiving settlement, the question of conflict would have never arisen again, but I doubt they could have satisified the Azeris forever.

Azerbaijan has a larger population, a bigger economy, and better arms deals from its international partners. Armenia cannot sustainably outspend its military budget. What it can do is provide better training (including changing its own military doctrine*) and prepare to fight asymmetrically. That might mean letting go of the urge to rebuild its vast, pre-2020 arsenal -maintaining a quantity of (often outdated) materiel has an opportunity cost.

*For instance - as in the last war, Azerbaijan has already released footage of drones destroying fixed, dug-in gun positions. Russia and Ukraine seem to be better at avoiding this kind of vulnerability.