FL-Florida Atlantic University: Biden +3 (or tie) (user search)
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  FL-Florida Atlantic University: Biden +3 (or tie) (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-Florida Atlantic University: Biden +3 (or tie)  (Read 1518 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,774


« on: September 15, 2020, 07:54:55 AM »

It's worth noting that their March and May polls were of registered voters, not likely ones.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,774


« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2020, 07:59:02 AM »

Not a great poll for Biden. Digging into the toplines, I noticed that the candidates were exactly tied 315-315 with leaners, with the 631st voter opting for "someone else." Strong Ralph Nader vibes.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,774


« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2020, 08:44:57 AM »

Of course 538 adds the tied version and not the Biden +3 version as well.

They almost always add results with leaners when they are available.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,774


« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2020, 08:47:50 AM »

Of course 538 adds the tied version and not the Biden +3 version as well.

They almost always add results with leaners when they are available.

If you're doing a model and average though, why not add both just for more data?

They do that for polls with alternate turnout models, but their polling average - not sure about their model - has always worked this way as opposed to de-emphasising the preferences of leaners, which is what adding both results would do (some polls only release the final result with leaners anyway, so at least this ensures consistency).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,774


« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2020, 08:48:44 AM »

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

Place much more stock in a tied topline than a crosstab suggesting trouble, please. I have had it with the "If this demographic votes as the inherently unrepresentative crosstab suggests, then the much more reliable topline cannot hold."
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