Biden's presidency: prospects

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A transition if the Senate majority mostly holds throughout his terms and if the House Democrats rebound from likely midterm losses in their next presidential year. 

Otherwise, I think his presidency has two paths: one where he uses executive power to fight gridlock in a manner he has spoken disapprovingly of (this could be an electoral tactic), and the other where he allows his presidency to be obstructed on a worse scale than ever before. If he opts for option 2 ("The fever will break this time, guys!"), it'll be a disaster unless it's at the tail end of a much longer presidency; if he goes for option 1, his presidency becomes much more important historically, and the political gambles involved in using various powers theoretically open to the president are probably higher risk/reward than those of typical presidential duties.

Considering all of these scenarios, I lean towards a belief that it would constitute a transition. Biden probably wants to be slightly to the right of where he thinks the party's centre is, but is increasingly understanding that the party's centre is well to the left of where some of his contemporaries claim it is. At the heart of his ideology seems to be a desire to bring people together, so I think he's more likely than not to sail towards progressive reform, albeit several knots slower than would be ideal.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Alot like Obama's first term, but the right wing swing will be stronger in 2022 and 24.

How would that be possible with a less white electorate? I'm sure there will be a right wing swing in 2022, but I can't see how it could be stronger than 2014 with a lower share of whites and boomers in the electorate.

Because they could swing further.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IF he has the Senate I think it will be transformative

He’ll sure up Obamacare to make a permanent fixture of our nations healthcare

He’ll likely put two justices on SCOTUS (Ginsburg and Breyer would retire, right?!). Assuring Dems have at least a prayer at a decent SCOTUS in the future.

He’ll sure up our image around the world

Make us a leader on climate change and because he won’t be running for a second term I can see him acting way more progressive than many expect him too. But not too progressive to ruin Dems 2024 chances.

I think he’ll go down as an important figure who ran to save the country from Trump and pass the to tortch to a new generation

By the same token, without the Senate I think he acts as moderate as possible in an attempt to build up a sizeable majority to work with during the next Presidency. Being a transitional figure more than transformative

Because that worked out so well for Obama.