2020 Poll Hype Thread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If even Barack Obama could not unite the country after George W. Bush, does anyone really believe Joe Biden would be able to do so after Donald Trump?

Yes. Obama was a black, you see, and therefore 40-45% of the country hated him.

No. Biden is an old, angry, white, cis-male, you see. Therefore 40-45% of the Democratic Party already hates him.

Uhhh??

Add the Sanders vote and arguably the Bloomberg vote to boot. That take is embarrassing at this stage.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NCSEN RMG/Political IQ poll tomorrow, along with "wave 2 of battleground state polls through election day." http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/27/north-carolina-biden-48-trump-47/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Harper Polling/Civitas (R) are going to have the rest of their results published at 12PM EST tomorrow. If they're tracking everything they tracked in the last survey, we'll have results for the state legislature, generic state supreme court, governorship, lieutenant governorships, state supreme court chief justice, SOPI and treasurer.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Harper Polling/Civitas (R) are going to have the rest of their results published at 12PM EST tomorrow. If they're tracking everything they tracked in the last survey, we'll have results for the state legislature, generic state supreme court, governorship, lieutenant governorships, state supreme court chief justice, SOPI and treasurer.

This is for NC?

Yes

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/lgsanchezconde/status/1321508992561152001

Hopefully, we get governorship and statehood numbers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1322220876520136704

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

How Biden performs in Iowa is a good tell of his chances across the midwest. Selzer had Hillary at 39% and Trump +7 in their final Iowa poll, which was a sign of how badly Hillary was gonna do in the midwest. If Biden is at 47-49% and around tied with Trump, we will know he’ll do well in WI/MI/PA

IA is more rural than most of the midwestern states Biden will be targeting. A Selzer poll won't say too much about suburban trends (don't delve too deep into the crosstabs).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Meeting Street Insights/CPRNC (R) said in this release that they'd be releasing more results in the coming days:

https://cprnc.org/2020/10/30/democrats-lead-court-contests-council-of-state-races-close/

As I mentioned in the latest thread on them, they've (so far) released results for every statewide race except SoS, Auditor, SOPI,  Insurance Commissioner and the 5 Court of Appeals contests. Annoyingly, 538 isn't tracking any of those.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I’m guessing Data For Progress will be releasing a mass of polls sometime for Tuesday like they did for the primaries.

They should do it before the day of the election if they want to Fivey Fox to notice them

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Will there ever be hype for a poll again?