Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Wormless Gourd]

Bet $10 TMac wins. It would require more reversion then realistic.

[Wormless Gourd]

Bet $10 TMac wins. It would require more reversion then realistic.

I'm still confident TMac pulls it out in the end.

Still, Inside Elections just changed it from Lean D to tossup, so now all three prediction sites are tossup or Lean R. Not a good sign.

[Wormless Gourd]

There's a ~1% drop in election day voter participation for every inch of rain according to a study fwiw

[Wormless Gourd]

It feels like there's a bandwagon effect on saying Youngkin is favored.

Republican-leaning pollsters release a disproportionate of the polls in the final two weeks, average starts to favor Youngkin, Crystal Ball moves to Lean R because they didn't want to do a tossup, other prediction groups follow suit. Beltway types wet themselves at the prospect of a truly competitive race in their backyard and entertain every inkling of Dems being in disarray in a Biden +10 state.
Youngkin would need to overperform with usually straight ticket Democrats even with poor minority turnout and good R-leaning election day turnout. I just don't see it in the numbers or feel it in my gut. It'll be closer then 2017 but not under <2%.

[Wormless Gourd]

Never change, Atlas lol.

To sum up - is it fair to say there are positives so far for both sides regarding turnout and there are no meaningful takeaways so far?

Wish I could be here tonight, I'll be watching on TV while I work on other things. I assume CNN will be doing returns all night?

Yes there's not utterly one sided numbers coming out so far. Virginia Beach and Roanoke looks great for Youngkin, but so does NOVA for McAuliffe.
And yes CNN will have continuous coverage.

[Wormless Gourd]

CNN Preliminary Exit Poll says 57% are a gun-owning household lol

[Wormless Gourd]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

[Wormless Gourd]

I have a question for all of you. What's one county/city you're going to be watching incredibly closely? For me, that would be Radford.

Margin in Virginia Beach and if Youngkin outperforms Trump in the Southwest if its too difficult to see where the night is headed based off of NOVA returns.

[Wormless Gourd]

Would be funny if Youngkin pulls off a big upset tonight but by the time 2022 rolls around Bidens approvals are higher and the midterms are a wash for Republicans.

[Wormless Gourd]

https://twitter.com/weirddrew55/status/1455675100594905094?s=20
Not to doom but I can establish that a single precinct in Virginia is voting notably to the right of 2017 with more raw votes.

[Wormless Gourd]

Loudoun dropped, 51% in.
54.7-44.9 TMac
That is way too close, but I assume this is all election day?

[Wormless Gourd]

Nate Cohn said Fairfax needed to be at 75% McAuliffe at the first EV drop, its 73.8%.

[Wormless Gourd]

We have a county 95% in according to DDHQ.
Rural Richmond county on the coast is 70% Youngkin, up from 62% Trump.

[Wormless Gourd]

We have a county 95% in according to DDHQ.
Rural Richmond county on the coast is 70% Youngkin, up from 62% Trump.

SW Virginia Buchanan county, 99% in, 84.5% Youngkin, up from 83.5% Trump

[Wormless Gourd]

TMac +6 in Loudoun, DDHQ says its 90% in. Is it having a Miami-Dade moment or is this incorrect?

[Wormless Gourd]

Virginia, you have shocked the nation.

[Wormless Gourd]

I was absolutely off on VA-Gov and I will eat my hat on that one. Usually I'm bullish on Republican chances post-Trump but thought Youngkin winning was too good to be true.
The GOP sweep of Virginia's government and scare in NJ gov are more then about just CRT, and Biden's cruddy approvals have finally materialized in election results.

[Wormless Gourd]

It is almost 1pm the day after election night and Ciattarelli is still up by the smallest margin imaginable. Unless there's more revisions to the EV/VBM he's going to lose to Murphy, but imagine had this been a hair closer, in New Jersey of all places.