Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Sharpshooter]

Can we just point out that Biden's approval ratings from a historical perspective aren't actually that great?

Obama entered office with a 67% approval rating (his first one on Gallup).

Approval ratings usually have a strong correlation with midterm performance and various special elections so you'd think if Biden is 45% or less the Republicans will be solid favorites for the house and have a good shot at the senate.

[Sharpshooter]

Infact I just checked.  Ranking presidents by their approval ratings at the time of their midterms since 1990:

1998: Bill Clinton - (+5 house, 0 senate) - 65% approval rating
2002: George W Bush - (+8 house, +2 senate) - 62% approval rating
1990: George HW Bush - (-8 house, -1 senate) - 55% approval rating
1994: Bill Clinton - (-54 house, -8 senate) - 45% approval rating
2010: Barack Obama - (-63 house, -6 senate) - 45% approval rating
2014: Barack Obama - (-13 house, -9 senate) - 42% approval rating
2018: Donald Trump - (-41 house, +2 senate) - 42% approval rating
2006: George W Bush - (-31 house, -5 senate) - 37% approval rating

People are saying "no one will pay attention to Biden's approval ratings like they did for Trump", I certainly would be a bit weary if Biden's numbers are in the 40s come the Fall of 2022.

The break even point looks like around 55-60%.

[Sharpshooter]

Infact I just checked.  Ranking presidents by their approval ratings at the time of their midterms since 1990:

1998: Bill Clinton - (+5 house, 0 senate) - 65% approval rating
2002: George W Bush - (+8 house, +2 senate) - 62% approval rating
1990: George HW Bush - (-8 house, -1 senate) - 55% approval rating
1994: Bill Clinton - (-54 house, -8 senate) - 45% approval rating
2010: Barack Obama - (-63 house, -6 senate) - 45% approval rating
2014: Barack Obama - (-13 house, -9 senate) - 42% approval rating
2018: Donald Trump - (-41 house, +2 senate) - 42% approval rating
2006: George W Bush - (-31 house, -5 senate) - 37% approval rating

People are saying "no one will pay attention to Biden's approval ratings like they did for Trump", I certainly would be a bit weary if Biden's numbers are in the 40s come the Fall of 2022.

The break even point looks like around 55-60%.

I'd normally agree with this take, but too many uncertainties and its clear the political dynamics at play are unique to the current time period. Polarization seems to be at a near record high as well.

Polarization was very high under Obama too.  Didn't stop him from getting 'shellacked'.

People seem to assume that democrats will maintain their ridiculously high level turnout they've had in the past 4 years during Trumps presidency and transfer it easily into Biden's presidency which I really find optimistic.

I think what will be a good indicator is are cable news ratings, namely CNN and MSNBC, fundraising etc.  If some of that drops, then it could be sign that people are tuning out now that Trump has gone.  He was the ultimate fear factor who drove opposition turnout to insane levels.

Looking at turnout in the past 3 midterms:

2010: 42%
2014: 37%
2018: 49%

If you were to ask me whether I'd put money on over/under 45%, I'd go under.

[Sharpshooter]

Well to be fair the Republican establishment never actually wanted Trump, they were forced to take him because their batsh**t base thought otherwise.  I'm sure they would have loved to have stripped him from the nomination at the 2016 convention and put someone else up but couldn't because they knew it would have destroyed their party.

Bush on the hand was pushed by the Republican establishment, and they supported all his policies, Iraq war, patriot act, deregulation of the financial systems, torture, gitmo etc.  So they fully own his presidency.

[Sharpshooter]

My prediction is that Biden will start with a 62-30 job approval rating in an average of the first 10 RCP or 538 polls.

I think that's too high.  His favorable ratings aren't even that high.

I'll go with a RCP range of 55-57%

[Sharpshooter]

I was talking about naysayers, we are in the early stages of Biden Prez and they are not gonna be steller until we start moving legislation

The thing is though they normally are stellar or at least at a high point when they first enter.  Every president bar Trump has entered with an approval rating above 50%.

Obama didn't pass any legislation in his first week and still started with 67% in his first gallup poll.

Biden will be above 50% but I suspect it wont be long before he drops below it, even with a covid relief bill eventually passing since he's not a very charismatic guy and the same fundementals that kept Obama's approval rating mostly below 50% for the vast majority of his presidency will probably apply to Biden as well.

[Sharpshooter]

Alot of these polls are based on the fact Biden isn't Trump attacking the Press and talking about the media, I do think Biden is at 52-48 approvals, but the right track wrong track number must come up in order for D's to win.


That is by next yr before the Election Economy must come up and everyone vaccinated

The Right track-wrong track polls have been underwater for nearly 20 years since the Iraq war, what makes you think Biden will change that?

I mean just look at it, apart from brief moment in June 2009 during Obama's honeymoon period, the polls were -30 constantly throughout his entire presidency.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

Biden was brought in to bring back normalcy and return to the Obama years, but if he runs the same Obama playbook I don't see how its going to be any different for the next 4 years?

[Sharpshooter]

My prediction is that Biden will start with a 62-30 job approval rating in an average of the first 10 RCP or 538 polls.

I think that's too high.  His favorable ratings aren't even that high.

I'll go with a RCP range of 55-57%

Wrote this on the 21st January before a single poll was released.

10 polls are finally in now on RCP with gallup being the latest addition.

54.3%

Wasn't too far off.

I guess predictions will be how long it takes for his RCP average to go below 50%.

Took Obama till the 25th of November 2009.