Iowa’s past voting history is irrelevant. By that logic, Colorado is a swing state because it voted for Obama twice, Bush twice, once for Clinton, and once for Dole. It isn’t, Biden won it by 13 points and it will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future.
A state that votes 5 points to the right of the nation, like Iowa did this year, isn’t a swing state. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP nominee in 2024 carries it by double digits.
Yes, because past voting history is irrelevant when the topic at hand is literally state electoral trends. Wake me up when Iowa votes the same way for over a decade, then it's not a swing state.
Well, Democrats haven’t won Iowa on the presidential level since 2012. Given that current trends are likely to only accelerate and show no signs of stopping, I have a feeling Iowa will be voting the same way for more than just a decade.
And yes, how a state voted in the past is for the most part irrelevant. When a state changes you can’t use how it voted in the past because those past voting patterns are obsolete. Saying Iowa is a swing state because of how Obama did in 2008, is like saying back in 2004, West Virginia will flip back because Clinton won it easily in 1996. 2008/2012 is an entirely different political world than 2020. It will be a long, long time before Democrats are competitive in places that Obama won by massive margins like Howard County or Worth County again. The Iowa of the late 90s/early 2000s is gone.
Iowa just voted for the loser of this election by 8 points, it is not a swing state nor a bellwether.
Yeah, this. I thought maybe 2016 was a fluke given how swingy Iowa used to be. It seemed unfathomable it could birth Obama’s presidency but then also support Trump. Given that it has gone the way of not just the GOP, but a racist authoritarian GOP, I see no reason for the Democratic Party to reward it with “first in the nation” status again. I don’t want the primary candidates racing to the bottom, right out of the gate. Let Nevada go first.
Poll
