Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.
I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning.