It's interesting how the right is basically speed-running through the 2020 Democrat experience. Completely ignoring the warning signs apparent from the previous midterms, taking obviously fake polls as gospel, believing that they will win votes solely based on how unpopular the incumbent is, assuming that they are simultaneously benefiting from favorable trends while also reversing all unfavorable trends, ignoring the fact that their candidate is relatively invisible at the moment and will certainly become less popular once the public has to hear from him, predicting that every single random news story helps their guy. Now we're apparently meant to believe that this election won't even be close.
Trump is also about as popular as he’s always been. It’s your wishful thinking to believe that he will become less popular as he goes in the spotlight. He should be tied in the popular vote since Biden and Trump have the same favorabilities. Both unfavorable aren’t going to magically break for Biden, however much you wish. The poor perceptions of the economy are hurting Biden by at least a few percent, and your own vibes or feelings doesn’t change that.
From 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2020 about 43 states shifted the same direction. Why isn’t this a reasonable assumption from 2020 to 2024?
There were a number of indications in 2018 that Biden would have problems with WWC voters. Stabenow doing worse, Collin Peterson doing worse than in 2016, McCaskill doing worse than Kander, Ohio's results being more Republican than expected, O'Rourke doing worse than Hillary in RGV.
