MI (Detroit News/Marketing Resource Group)- Trump +7/Whitmer +6

[DaleCooper]

Biden approval -12 in NV but -27 in MI.... very real!

Only thing I gleam from this though is that Trump's % pretty much stays the same, which shows once again that his voters are pretty much locked in. The fact that Whitmer has 46% and Biden only 35% just says to me that there's lots of people who may not love Biden but will come home in the end for the Democrat against Trump.

Having a 20% "someone else" is just unrealistic.

It's actually very real to me that one in five people would refuse to pick between Trump and Biden but the question is whether or not those people will eventually pick one and vote for him in the end, or just not vote at all.

[DaleCooper]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

[DaleCooper]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time.

Some rapper said nice things about Trump.

Is that really all it is? Like I said, if there's a possibility that there's this huge collapse among black support for Democrats or at least Biden then I am interested in hearing about it. But I'm not seeing it. Admittedly, I have no connections to black America so I can't go off personal anecdotes, but I can look at election results.

In Michigan last year, if you trust the exit polls, Whitmer apparently won 94% of the black vote, and the Secretary of State won at least 90% of the black vote. So basically we're talking about there being many tens of thousands of black voters in Michigan who hate Biden, love Whitmer, love no-name down-ballot Democrats, and also love Donald Trump but they didn't fall in love with him until after 2020 and they also inexplicably refuse to vote for any Trump-endorsed candidates.

Even if I try to be as charitable as possible and agree that midterm turnout may not reflect 2024 turnout and that Trump will outperform down-ballot Republicans, it still seems statistically impossible (to use an obnoxious term) that none of these black Trump supporters are voting Republican in any elections. Where is this coming from?

[DaleCooper]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

There does seem to be a shift in the rural black belt - even Walker outperformed Trump there out of all candidates, and there was also a huge shift right in eastern North Carolina. The same phenomenon was seen in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

In any case, midterm trends are usually muted compared to President - most of the time the midterm results is just a uniform shift from the last Presidential result based on candidate quality. For example, Starr went from Clinton +60 to O'Rourke +54 to Biden +5.

Even in Georgia, both Warnock and Abrams apparently got 90% of the black vote. As for Texas, those numbers look exciting, but in context I actually think that O'Rourke only getting +54 in Starr when doing dramatically better than Clinton statewide is a pretty good sign in hindsight that Democrats were having issues with RGV hispanic voters. None of that seems comparable to a potential Miami-Dade style shift in Michigan black voters after they were Whitmer +90 in 2022 when Biden was supposedly the most unpopular incumbent ever.

[DaleCooper]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

It's not just polls with Biden, the same picture in the senate. The Pennsylvania poll has Casey up 41-33%, which is literally worthless.

Fetterman just won by 5. Casey winning by 8 is believable with incumbency advantage + Presidential turnout.

Yeah, he won by 5 in a year where Democratic candidates across the board (with the exception of Abrams) were doing pretty great in all the swing states. He didn't outperform the top of the ticket by 20 points. But whatever, keep eating up these polls. Pretend you believe them.