Would Trump claim that he would’ve won, unlike “Lyin’ Ted”?
Of course. And Cruz likely would've lost to Hillary, I suspect. I'm almost certain that a 2016 Ted Cruz campaign would've been centered around a toxic Bush-era "Jesus wants Sheldon Adelson to be even richer" platform, probably obsessing over gay marriage or stem-cell research for good measure. There still would've been some realignment, but without Trump then Hillary likely would've been forced to run on a platform much more oriented around kitchen table issues rather than the Soul of America stuff.