Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DaleCooper]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

This is why I'm so tired of people babbling about sanctions. Obviously that should be part of the conversation, but what needed to happen (and what still needs to happen) is arming the Ukrainian army and public as much as possible to kill as many Russian soldiers as possible. See how much the Russians really worship their false god Vladimir Putin when their boys are dying in droves in a foreign country.  

[DaleCooper]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Zelensky has been criminally incompetent. It's hard not to wonder if he's in league with the Russians at this point.

[DaleCooper]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

He wants to inflict so much pain on Russia that the Russians decide: Oh, never mind!  I don't really want Unraine that badly.

If that were true then he would've been better prepared militarily.

Again, whether or not this will be a failure for Russia depends on the amount of grieving families back home. Russia has a long history of being a sh-thole country as far as the economy is concerned, sanctions alone won't make the Russians realize the folly of supporting a dictator like Putin. But once their sons and husbands and fathers start dying or getting maimed? Then maybe they'll finally wake up.

[DaleCooper]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Seems like a good plan. Arm as many vigilantes no matter who they are. Russia can enjoy the next decade of this.

The Ukrainian people will be the ones "enjoying" that decade.

Do you believe that Russian occupation is a better outcome for the Ukrainian people?

I believe that there's a legitimate debate to be had over whether it's preferable to be ruled by Putin or to see your country devolve into a European Syria, and the keyboard insurgents who want to see years of violent resistance have no right to judge the Ukrainian people for which option they choose.

I want to make very clear here, I am not judging any of the Ukrainian people aside from their leadership. When I say I support opposition to the Russians, it's because I want the Russians to suffer so that they will be less likely to pull this again in the future. Unfortunately we can't control the actions of sh-thole countries like Russia, and it's incredibly tragic that Putin decided to target Ukraine in his effort to spread his filth across the globe, but that's not something we can control anymore. All we can do is try and make Russia and its people hurt, and right now because of Russia's actions Ukraine is the avenue to do that through. I don't judge any Ukrainians for not resisting, but so long as there are people in Ukraine willing to kill Russian soldiers, they should have our support. As callous and sad as this is to say, we're not just talking about the quality of life in Ukraine (or even Ukraine's independence), we're talking about putting the cesspit that is Putin's Russia in its place.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497253373648719876?s=21

Oh yeah here’s this too

 May the driver of that tank have their spine shattered till they are paralyzed, then have a group of partisans beat them to death Over the course ofseveral excruciating hours.

I’d like to see him getting ass raped, personally.

A bit excessive, no?

It's a crass joke, but on a serious note it would be ideal for the driver of that Russian tank, along with countless more Russian soldiers, to die or at least be maimed. The spirit of the Russian public needs to be broken before they'll reject Putin and move on to worship some other strongman.

[DaleCooper]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Kiev was supposed to fall by now, Russians have been forced to bypass major cities, the breakthrough columns are getting bogged down in sieges.

Winning when you are faced with overwhelming numbers means slowing things down, trading casualties favorably, and maintaining a functional army in field that can keep resisting after the inevitable happens. Ukraine is doing that by most estimations.

Ehhhh...

I mean it is only the third day of fighting and already you have Russian forces at a depth of about 200 kms from the Belarusian border.

Its good that Ukraine is inflicting more casualties on the Russians than they are taking, but that only matters if the enemy cares about their losses. Evidently I don't see that as the case.

I do hope against all odds Kyiv becomes the Stalingrad for Putin, but I think at some point he is going to win out and get his regime change.

Unfortunately Ukraine is almost certainly going to fall. The hope is that enough Russians die to deter further invasions.

[DaleCooper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497728184145514496

Should've been $351 million.  Unbelievable how weak this president is, never willing to go as far as he needs to to defend Ukraine.

Trump would have given them $352 million in aid and been on the front lines himself riding a tank into battle with a rocket launcher aimed right at Putin's dacha.

The tank wouldn't be able to support his tremendous weight.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1497774158578548738

These are the types of tragic stories that will hopefully lead to Putin losing support amongst the Russian public.

[DaleCooper]

Very droll, but (if it actually needs to be pointed out) not happening.

I read it as a piece of fear-based propaganda meant to drum up support for Ukraine.

[DaleCooper]

Very droll, but (if it actually needs to be pointed out) not happening.

I read it as a piece of fear-based propaganda meant to drum up support for Ukraine.

I mean, if we get to the point where there is very little resistance coming out of Ukraine  by the of the year, I think he will arrack the Baltics.

I don't think that Russia will be in any condition to attack NATO after a year of occupying Ukraine and dealing with the prolonged sanctions. I know there was some concern beforehand, but what we've seen over the last week makes it incredibly clear to me that the Russians stand absolutely no chance against the US and Europe. That said, it's also clear to me that Putin is not the shrewd, competent dictator we thought he was either. He might actually be dumb enough to attack NATO members.

[DaleCooper]

No, because they would actually be fully backed by NATO.

I don't think that dooming about this at least is very helpful. Even if Putin was silly/insane enough to think it possible, plenty of other in the Russian "deep state" do not agree.

That's my thinking too. I'm just saying that Putin strikes me as unhinged or stupid enough to demand an attack on NATO. If that's the case then we may hear news about Putin suddenly "stepping down" or dying.

[DaleCooper]

Again, this makes no sense. I'm not Russian. I'm basically watching a football game here. I may have picked a side to support but I have no skin in the game. For some reason the vast majority of the forum, minus a few Ukrainians, thinks they do even though they are in the same situation as me.

In human cultures, the loss of life is generally considered lamentable. Hope this helps!

Yet wearing a mask is an intolerable burden to slow down COVID? While the effect of the sanctions will have a far greater impact on daily life, particularly in Europe where energy costs could surge?

Shut the hell up, no one wants to hear about your outdoor mask mandate crap.

[DaleCooper]

Very droll, but (if it actually needs to be pointed out) not happening.

I read it as a piece of fear-based propaganda meant to drum up support for Ukraine.

I mean, if we get to the point where there is very little resistance coming out of Ukraine  by the of the year, I think he will arrack the Baltics.

I don't think that Russia will be in any condition to attack NATO after a year of occupying Ukraine and dealing with the prolonged sanctions. I know there was some concern beforehand, but what we've seen over the last week makes it incredibly clear to me that the Russians stand absolutely no chance against the US and Europe. That said, it's also clear to me that Putin is not the shrewd, competent dictator we thought he was either. He might actually be dumb enough to attack NATO members.

There you have it. If he thinks he can, he will.

The Russian Federation as we know it can't survive a conflict with NATO, so I wouldn't be surprised if Putin is ousted from within should he start ordering an invasion of NATO countries.

[DaleCooper]

"Fringe extremist"? My view is on the fringe when it is shared by 1.4 billion people, and another 1.3 billion or so people share similar views, at least when it comes to how their respective governments have responded to the war? If you think my support for the CCP is "excessively weird", does it pain you to learn that by and large, Chinese people support the CCP and the government, particularly when the West and the USA are held up as an alternative?

I don't care if I have any support or no support. As I meet the standards of decorum on this forum, if you get me banned I will have been banned for my views and opinions and you will have shown your hypocrisy about free speech, a freedom deemed so important it is the First Amendment in the US Constitution. There is a saying in the US about free speech, or at least there used to be: "I disagree completely with what you say, but I defend to the death your right to say it."

This forum is not bound to follow the Bill of Rights, lol. I know you have contempt for the Constitution and everything it stands for, but your claim to free speech (1) Does not apply in this context, and (2) Is invalidated by the moral code you supposedly adhere to.

Sure, I don't deny that. This forum is free to ban me. But that is the ultimate display of hypocrisy; while arguing for "democracy and freedom" in supporting Ukraine, you're kicking me out because you disagree with my views.

I don't agree with this forum's banning policy, but you have indeed violated the TOS, and people have been banned for much less than what you've said in this thread. The height of hypocrisy would be banning Sanchez while allowing a genocide denier like yourself to remain.

No?

Sanchez was banned for personal attacks not for his political views. Usually this forum is fairly lenient on political views except when it comes to trans people because anything that can be seen as even barely disparaging towards trans people is considered genocidal against them . Other than that  I think most stuff is free game. Sanchez was a good poster but he got what was coming to him. Compucomp clearly has not engaged in any personal attacks even in "self defense"

Sanchez was banned in connection with supporting 1/6. His posts about it did involve personal attacks but it absolutely had to do with him adopting unacceptable political stances as well. Let's not rewrite forum history here.

fhtagn was banned over political stances too. I don't agree with either of their views, and honestly I don't even remember interacting with Sanchez, but if they are going to be banned for political opinions that don't involve genocide denial then it doesn't make sense to keep compucomp around. Keep in mind, I don't think any of them should be banned and I'd rather see those two unbanned than compucomp banned, but consistency is important in my opinion.

[DaleCooper]

One million refugees have fled Ukraine since start of invasion: UN

This is another reason why I don't understand the isolationists. They're so scared of refugees and immigrants that you'd think they'd want do whatever they can to put a stop to Putin so that fewer refugees end up here.

[DaleCooper]

So, uh, apparently the Russians in their infinite wisdom by Supreme Leader Putin have decided to forgo the concept of encryption entirely. The result is that their coms. can be heard live on shortwave radio. I wish I was joking right now.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

This is absolutely staggering. I always knew that Russia's military was nothing compared to the West, but this is pathetic.

[DaleCooper]

In addition to the questions of "will BDS actions cripple the Russian war machine's ability to fight before Ukraine succumbs?", we must ask:

1. Is a 1-2% chance of hundreds of millions dead in nuclear war should NATO directly intervene via institution of a no-fly zone worth preventing an >80% chance of the Russian military murdering tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians in cold blood?

2. If yes to #1, do we want to place faith in the Russian General Staff to refuse relaying any launch signals to their submarines should Putin throw a hissy fit and goes full I Am Legend?

I can admit I am too much of a coward to answer those questions. I can only hope our leaders are up to the task.

If this was just about now, it isn’t but I think it is.

I agree. If Putin gets away with what he is doing in Ukraine, what is stopping him from going into Moldova next? Then deciding he can go after the Baltic States? There is going to have to be a confrontation at some point and I think that MAD will stop the war from going nuclear, but even a 1% chance is a frightening proposition.

If Putin tries to invade the Baltic States, it's pretty clear that NATO will annihilate his invasion force within days given how incompetent his military is. This situation might actually make the Russians more likely to use nuclear weapons, so I say it's best to do everything we can, short of sending in troops, to make sure Russia gets stopped at Ukraine.  

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1499587064760786945

The Republican media types have done a pretty good job of co-opting "populist" rhetoric but their true colors often slip through. It's no surprise to me that what crossed the line here for Fox News was a shady Russian billionaire getting his assets frozen.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

NATO has more reason justification than people realize to intervene in Ukraine, and it's not about defending Democracy or whatever the public justification is. First of all, Europe is not eager to deal with half the population of Ukraine becoming refugees and trying to resettle in the rest of Europe. Second, even though Russia clearly doesn't stand a chance against a head-to-head conflict with NATO, that's cold comfort for the NATO country Russia decides to invade if they end up going that route. Putting a stop to this abomination before they get farther than Ukraine is in the best interests of the West, both Europe and the United States.

[DaleCooper]

How many more troops can Putin put into Ukraine without endangering the security of Russia's borders?  They still need to be guarded and protected after all, while this is going on...

I suspect they're reaching that limit, and that's why they're looking into even more draconian conscription policies. They also must be thinking that more domestic unrest is likely on its way and need to prepare for that too.

[DaleCooper]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you that things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

At most I could see the Chinese sending weapons (like NATO). I just don't see what the benefit for the Chinese would be, if they directly got involved. In the best scenario (for Russia) a new "denazified" Ukrainian government is installed and China gets what exactly out of their help? They already have a 25 year cheap oil deal with Russia, signed a few weeks before the invasion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/russia-s-gazprom-signs-new-gas-supply-contract-with-china

it's a chance to test their gear in a real world situation, which they need.  Probably not worth the ...ahem....fallout though.   ugggg

Would sh-tty made-in-China military tech be much better than what Russia has now?

[DaleCooper]

The only thing Putin understands is strength and the only thing we have been showing is weakness.

Biden disappoints me.

Yes, yes, we get it, you and Forumlurker both want The Day After and Threads to become reality.

No, appeasement is what will lead to that.

Unlike with Hitler's Germany, the West has the power and technology to completely annihilate the Russian military in a matter of days or weeks. Putin's Russia is weak and we are prepared, so it's not necessary to pick a greater fight with him when he has an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Our objective should not be to go to war with him directly, but to give Ukraine everything it needs to kill as many Russians as possible and to use our economic power to make life hell for the Russian population until their country eventually gives up on Putin and moves on to worship a new dictator, hopefully a less belligerent one.

[DaleCooper]

I haven’t been talking much about the frontlines recently because…well they’ve kinda been still for a while now. The Mariupol pocket shrinks a bit each day, Russian backed forces made a few minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Ukrainians counter attacked a bit in Kyiv area and Mykolaiv/Kherson oblast, but otherwise not much. This really is entering a war of attrition, and that’s terrible for both sides, although worse for Ukraine.

It's much worse for Ukraine's population but if it turns into a war of attrition then it basically ensures that Russia will accomplish nothing from this invasion other than the destruction of its own economy and the disgrace of its political leadership and military capabilities. Russia's crimes against Ukraine have also ensured that under absolutely no circumstances will any significant portion of the Ukrainian population accept Putin's or Russia's interference in their country or culture for generations.

[DaleCooper]

I haven’t been talking much about the frontlines recently because…well they’ve kinda been still for a while now. The Mariupol pocket shrinks a bit each day, Russian backed forces made a few minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Ukrainians counter attacked a bit in Kyiv area and Mykolaiv/Kherson oblast, but otherwise not much. This really is entering a war of attrition, and that’s terrible for both sides, although worse for Ukraine.

It's much worse for Ukraine's population but if it turns into a war of attrition then it basically ensures that Russia will accomplish nothing from this invasion other than the destruction of its economy and the disgrace of its political leadership and military capabilities. Russia's crimes against Ukraine have also ensured that under absolutely no circumstances will any significant portion of the Ukrainian population accept Putin's or Russia's interference in their country or culture for generations.

It does not ensure this. A war of attrition only continues so long as key capabilities remain intact.

There are areas where Ukraine is probably more able to replenish itself than Russia - man-portable/light weapons with which it is being restocked by its allies.

There are areas where it is not clear which side is better able to regenerate its own capabilities. Manpower is one of these - the ISW indicates that Russia can bring in significant amounts of new combat power within months. Whether Ukraine can mobilise even more people in the long run is an open question.

Finally, there are areas where Russia is in a better position to slow or reverse attrition - heavy weaponry, air defences, etc. Ukraine has a smaller defence industry, it doesn't domestically manufacture most of what it uses and its infrastructure for limited repair and replacement is currently being degraded. On a long enough timeline, it could retrain its units on Western systems, and on a short timeline, it could be restocked with the limited Soviet/Russian systems in Western countries. However, this could be a bit more expensive and complicated for the West than just giving light weapons to Ukraine, and there's little indication that the easier part - giving old Soviet systems to Ukraine - is happening.

The war might become more unpopular in Russia as it grinds on, but Ukraine could also see a slow decline in international support as "conflict fatigue" sets in abroad.

Personally, I think a war of attrition leans in Russia's favour - at least, in the conventional phase. It is likely to lead to eventual Russian air superiority/supremacy, and then they can go on the offensive again.

This is all very true, but I guess I was thinking more along the lines of whether or not Russia is capable or willing to withstand the prolonged losses that they're experiencing both economically and in terms of human life. Obviously the Russian government doesn't care about human life, but they'll be forced to care if casualties add up to over 10% of their armed forces, which at this rate is a very real possibility. Plus, if they win the war of attrition, they still face the problem of annexing or occupying a country that is totally against their presence, even in the formerly pro-Russia parts of Ukraine. And how much longer can they handle these sanctions? The soft support of China and a handful of sh-thole third world countries won't make up for what they've lost and will continue to lose economically because of this. Plus, as others have mentioned, Russia has made a lot of enemies over the years and now they've just made clear for the whole world to see that their military is incompetent. So you're right, Russia can eventually succeed in taking Kyiv, but at this point I don't see that as a victory for them. This whole abomination marks a huge turning point in Russia's place in the world, and not in favor of Russia.

[DaleCooper]

I haven’t been talking much about the frontlines recently because…well they’ve kinda been still for a while now. The Mariupol pocket shrinks a bit each day, Russian backed forces made a few minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Ukrainians counter attacked a bit in Kyiv area and Mykolaiv/Kherson oblast, but otherwise not much. This really is entering a war of attrition, and that’s terrible for both sides, although worse for Ukraine.

It's much worse for Ukraine's population but if it turns into a war of attrition then it basically ensures that Russia will accomplish nothing from this invasion other than the destruction of its own economy and the disgrace of its political leadership and military capabilities. Russia's crimes against Ukraine have also ensured that under absolutely no circumstances will any significant portion of the Ukrainian population accept Putin's or Russia's interference in their country or culture for generations.

All that matters is that Russia gets a Domination Victory for even a day. Ignore what happens in the weeks, months or years after that. It literally doesn't matter if Russia's economy collapses, Ukrainian resistance remains strong, the victory is purely pyrrhic and/or Russia ends up losing control of Ukraine.

Haven't you played Civilization?

(For the record, I'm being sarcastic)

Lol, so true. A lot of people do seem to think that way, though.