Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[DaleCooper]

I don't know much about Brazilian politics (or about anything else for that matter) so correct if I'm wrong here, but it would strike me as pretty stunning for a candidate receiving 48.5% of the first round vote to lose to a candidate that trailed him by 5 points, assuming no major scandals destroy his reputation before the second round vote.

I didn't follow this one too closely so I never had unrealistic hopes of Lula being ahead by 15 points, so to me it just looks like Lula is very much at an advantage. Am I way off here?

[DaleCooper]

I don't know much about Brazilian politics (or about anything else for that matter) so correct if I'm wrong here, but it would strike me as pretty stunning for a candidate receiving 48.5% of the first round vote to lose to a candidate that trailed him by 5 points, assuming no major scandals destroy his reputation before the second round vote.

I didn't follow this one too closely so I never had unrealistic hopes of Lula being ahead by 15 points, so to me it just looks like Lula is very much at an advantage. Am I way off here?

I don’t know why you have this impression of being alone since polls predict Lula and everyone here sees him as the favorite???

Bolsonaro can win because upsets are always possible though. Nothing is impossible. In 2006, Alckmin got less votes in the runoff than in the 1st round for example. But this is an election I doubt many people change their minds as they made their decision with lots of time anticipation. So I doubt things change much from 1st round.

Lula’s big danger is the growth of abstention and voter suppression tactics imo.

I got the vibe that people were changing their opinions quite a bit in favor of Bolsonaro, but taking the results on their own separate from the polling miss, it doesn't look good for him at all.

[DaleCooper]

I definitely understand why people are pumping the brakes on their expectations for a Lula victory, but the reason I brought this up is because I think it's being understated just how profoundly unlikely it is for a loser candidate to come back in the second round and beat his opponent who had over 48% and was 5% ahead in the first round. Yes, Bolsonaro was underestimated by polls, but we have concrete evidence that Lula is very much in the lead and near 50% thanks to the first round voting. As I understand it, it's pretty much a question of whether the people who initially voted for alternative candidates will pick Lula or Bolsonaro and I find it hard to believe that Lula doesn't have at least a slim majority pretty much in the bag so long as nothing horribly scandalous happens to him over the next couple weeks. But again, I'm unfamiliar with Brazilian electoral politics.

[DaleCooper]

All the polls are showing a decline of the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro is growing only at the expense of former "none" voters. Lula's vote is stable. In order to reach a tie, Bolsonaro needs to remove votes from Lula, and this is very hard now, because almost all the voters of both candidates are not willing to change.

Do you think that Lula skipping one of the debates will have an effect on this?

[DaleCooper]

Seems like Bolsonaro has definitely got the momentum.

[DaleCooper]

Thanks for the insight, Red Velvet. Very informative!

[DaleCooper]

Yeah, you’re seeing all the machine money being dumped as I said.

After 1st round I think you could fall from anywhere a Lula 57,5% victory to a Bolsonaro 52,5% victory, depending on how the runoff campaign went.

The middle of this is a Lula 52,5% victory, which is the initial center before any campaign. Depends on how much Bolsonaro can really close the gap on his favor. Polls next week should give an idea of the trend and its level but we will only really know on the day.

I think the campaign should had been more driven on economic grounds btw, cuz everything we’re seeing now (the benefits payments, inflation control) is artificial and temporarily planned due to the election, not going to last. I suppose there’s a personal special vindication sense about attacking Bolsonaro on moral grounds but that’s his ground of populism. If undecided people weren’t already voting against him because of the horrible stuff he did and said in his government, it’s not pointing pedophile comments that will suddenly change their minds tbh.

This is a failing that the left has been making all over the place, in many countries. I suspect that it's a reflection of the left/right divide being based less on class and more on cultural values, but it's a huge mistake and it's bad for society.

[DaleCooper]

This race seems to come down to the wire. The polling is too close for comfort.

It's close, but I've gotten the impression that Lula has stemmed the bleeding so to speak since the first round results where it seems like Bolsonaro was steadily closing the gap.

At this point it seems like a major question is whether or not the polls are overestimating Lula as much as underestimating Bolsonaro.

[DaleCooper]

Over the past day, Bolsonaro's campaign has started a whole drama claiming that radio stati on the Northeast region of Brazil aired more Lula ads than Bolsonaro ads. He claims that free ad time was taken from him and given to Lula. After the Superior Electoral Court asked for proof, his campaign sent a google drive link with some stuff which was ultimately considered inconclusive and flimsy by Alexandre de Moraes, one of the ministers of the court. Bolsonaro supporters are using the opportunity to claim that the whole system is rigged against him, the usual stuff we've come to expect, I've also seen some of them claiming that this stuff also happened in other states like in Minas Gerais and in the North region. I should also mention that I've seen reports that Bolsonaro's campaign didn't send their material to be aired by the radio stations, if this is true, this would just be the campaign's fault.

A few minutes ago, Bolsonaro spoke with the press, he attacked Moraes, accusing the minister of favoring Lula. Apparently he also summoned his ministers to a meeting which started just after he finished the address to the media (which was around 8:30 PM in the local time). This all feels very desperate by his campaign, I guess he realizes this is over and due to that, they decided to already enter the "actually, the whole election was rigged, here are the proofs" phase which we all knew was going to happen. Truly embarrassing stuff.

Yes, before reaching the end of your post I was already thinking that this seems like a preemptive attempt to claim that the whole election was illegitimate. In a way you could almost say that's a good sign for Lula, just purely in the sense that even Bolsonaro's team seems to believe that he will lose. But yes, it is embarrassing and upsetting.

[DaleCooper]

The final debate starts in around 45min

How do you expect it to go?

[DaleCooper]

The final debate starts in around 45min

How do you expect it to go?

So far it’s horrible, they don’t speak the same language and don’t follow what the other brings up. It’s not a debate.

Everything Lula says, Bolsonaro says it’s a lie in order to cop-out and not respond. Everything Bolsonaro says Lula complains it’s nonsense (even if true, feels like a cop out for the viewer). Neither falls on the other trap but don’t say anything meaningful because of that.

If I were average person watching this I would think it’s two old guys trying to hit each other without me understanding any of what’s going on. Very “blocked” debate overall so far. Would be surprised if it caused any movements.

Lula is more sassy and condescending towards Bolsonaro this time which makes him shrug off Bolsonaro cheap attacks better, but maybe also will make him come across as arrogant. It’s hard to debate with someone who is just dumber and extremely one-note.

Thanks.

It's disappointing and bad for the country, but I suppose if it's not causing any movements then that will be viewed as a victory by Lula and his campaign.

[DaleCooper]

Wrong; the urban areas report later. Like red mirage but disappears faster.

It looks like there's a lot of Bolsonaro areas that have yet to report.

I'll fully admit, I'm out of my element here and if I tried to zoom in and find specific results I wouldn't even know what I was looking for. Lula will obviously take the lead soon, but it would seem premature to assume a steady rate of growth throughout the night, wouldn't it?

[DaleCooper]

I'm so glad that there are several dozen posts in response to one of the forum's most dumb and boring posters. You really did own him with facts and logic, or whatever. I'm sure he learned his lesson and will be more reasonable in the future. Seriously, do you people ever learn?

Anyway, congratulations to Lula on the hard-fought victory.