No. I don't think a single event changed anything. We're that locked. Notice how close the polls in late 2019 before the Democratic primaries were to the actual results?
I'll preface this by acknowledging that what I'm about to say is anecdotal, but I don't think that swing voters are a thing of the past. I know a lot of people that felt compelled to assess each candidate according to their own idiosyncratic values, and I know of several Democratic voters, including a couple Biden/Bacon voters, that went from being enthusiastic anti-Trump voters to reluctant Biden voters after the first month or so of riots. The endless destruction of public monuments was also a huge turnoff that sickened a lot of voters. The Jacob Blake rioting took place in a small community that, to my knowledge, hasn't seen any of this kind of violence in recent memory. It's not surprising to me at all that Democrats would lose ground here due to this.
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