Trump 2nd Impeachment News/Talk Megathread

[DaleCooper]

I think that men like Daschle are correct in their fears that wasting weeks on a Trump impeachment hearing would be a huge risk and would undermine Biden's chance to move the country forward. I wonder if their use of the 14th Amendment and focus on insurrection is setting them up to just go with the majority vote to bar Trump from serving in federal office again. That would be their best course of action. It could be quick, and more importantly, it will actually be successful and will also spare us from Trump getting acquitted in the Senate.

[DaleCooper]

It'd be smart for the relatively safe Republicans in the House and the Senate, especially those who just won reelection, to vote against Trump here. It'll normalize being opposed to Trump and still being a Republican. If they're smart, they'll try to work towards the Republican Party and Trump not being synonymous.

[DaleCooper]

If McConnell blames Trump for costing him his Senate majority then I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn on him.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/SenatorTimScott/status/1349109681843826691?s=19

Oh, yeah, the nation’s totally fine right now but would really fracture if he were impeached.  this sh**t.

The ones up for reelection in Republican states in 2022 were never going to support this. If, and thats a big if, this happens then it will be thanks to Republicans who just got reelected or are in states that allow them to anger the base, like Murkowski in Alaska.

[DaleCooper]

McConnell is most likely considering two main things, the first being the 2022 midterms. Most of the Senate pickup opportunities are in purple states, as well as a couple that the GOP could potentially lose. McConnell is old enough that every election that passes puts him at considerable risk of not living to become Majority Leader again, and I'm sure 2018 is in his mind where the party in control of the White House expanded its majority in the Senate during the midterms. Severing ties with Trump takes away Democrats' most powerful complaint. The other consideration is Trump running again in 2024, and that is something that, if he's smart, he would not want to risk allowing.

[DaleCooper]

If McConnell is on board then I think Deb Fischer will vote to convict. I think it'll be based more on who doesn't have to run in 2022 than on ideology IF (big if, remember) McConnell is actually in support of conviction.

[DaleCooper]

Support of the censure likely indicates opposition to impeachment.

[DaleCooper]

I think it all comes down to McConnell. His desire to "purge" Trump won't be realized if only 40% of Senate Republicans are responsible for convicting him. This talk of censure makes me suspect that the Republican Party is going to acquit Trump again, regardless of the New York Times reporting.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1349153159952945156?s=20

Looks like that tweet got deleted. What did it say?

I think that account deleted a tweet about the censure and posted a new update saying that a 7th Republican signed on.

[DaleCooper]

Are we expecting the 25th Amendment vote to have any predictive value for impeachment? Lots of critters were calling for “25th or impeachment (or resignation)” in the wake of the attacks, after all.

For one, Katko says he supports impeachment but opposes asking Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment.

They don't want to further implicate Pence. There are a lot of strategic benefits to removing Trump through a second impeachment. Republicans would be fools not to do it.

[DaleCooper]

I still have a gut feeling that for all this talk, impeachment gets to the Senate and all but 3 or 4 Republicans vote to acquit.

[DaleCooper]

9 managers including Swalwell & not a single Republican.  this is not a serious effort to do something that can get 67 votes in the Senate.

You really think that makes a difference? Give me a break...

Not including Republicans is a big mistake. I assume it's because none of them wanted the job, because if not then this is a foolish move on Pelosi's part.

[DaleCooper]

Hannity is one of the Fox hosts that has no problem blatantly and directly lying to his audience, not just misleading them. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't talk to anyone affiliated with McConnell at all.

[DaleCooper]

The more I think about it, if McConnell truly wants to "purge" Trump from the GOP, then I think he is going to vote to convict. If he ends up voting to acquit Trump, then I think the most likely explanation is that this story was inaccurate in the first place.

[DaleCooper]

Is there any chance this could get done by the 20th- and we'd actually see President Mike Pence for a little bit- or would this almost certainly linger into Biden's term?

I think McConnell will want to convict (if that's true) after Trump is gone. It spares the GOP another Trump campaign and it also avoids the chaos of actually removing him.

[DaleCooper]

What is the point of McConnell supporting impeachment? I still doubt 17 GOP senators will vote to convict, especially with Trump out of office.

It frees them from having to defend him anymore.

[DaleCooper]

Let's also be realistic about the fact that the attack on the capitol is not going to be the last Trump-inspired act of terrorism. McConnell doesn't want his 2022 recruit in Arizona to have to defend this crap on the debate stage against Mark Kelly. For all the jokes about Young Kim's homophobia, there actually is a point where association with what the mainstream GOP has become will hurt candidates in winnable states like Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, etc.

[DaleCooper]

Convicting Trump will also give Republicans a chance to get ahead of all the information that will continually get released about the terrorist attack over the upcoming weeks and months.

[DaleCooper]

I don't think there's much of a chance that Trump gets convicted. Clearly they're just going to let him off the hook and cross their fingers in hopes that he dies before running for president again in 2024.

[DaleCooper]

I don't think there's much of a chance that Trump gets convicted. Clearly they're just going to let him off the hook and cross their fingers in hopes that he dies before running for president again in 2024.

That would be a foolish move on their part. It certainly would be a terrible experience for the country to have to go through the next four years with the possibility of a second Trump presidential run looming over our heads, although I'm certain that he would not win again.

Perhaps I'm too pessimistic, and I realize that there's a huge difference between the House and Senate, but hearing the Republican response and rationale for this is just appalling.

[DaleCooper]

At this point I'd be stunned if the Senate convicts Trump. I think Republicans, including McConnell, will embrace the rushed process line of reasoning and acquit him with only about 5 Republicans voting to convict.

[DaleCooper]

Gosh, I keep going back and forth. I feel like McConnell having a confirmed willingness to both hold the trial immediately and possibly vote to convict Trump is a huge development. It all comes down to him.

[DaleCooper]

Gosh, I keep going back and forth. I feel like McConnell having a confirmed willingness to both hold the trial immediately and possibly vote to convict Trump is a huge development. It all comes down to him.

Where have you heard this?

That phrasing was probably a bit too far. There were reports that McConnell was talking with Schumer on the subject of commencing the trial this week. I presumed his discussion indicated willingness, but I suppose I should've said "openness" instead.

[DaleCooper]

If McConnell is concerned about Trump's future influence over the GOP and wants to break with him, then I would think he'd be concerned about handing him a second acquittal.

[DaleCooper]

I do think that convicting Trump after he's out of office would be better in McConnell's mind. It's tough to predict, but I feel like if McConnell isn't going to whip votes then Trump will get acquitted.