Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[DaleCooper]

We're all for second chances. We just don't think people who are attracted to first graders deserve one.

You know, like normal people.

It's funny that we finally find a position where I'm more left than you.  I've always felt that the sex offender registry should be eliminated.

Um, what the f#ck?

The sex offender registry isn't about vengeance or second chances, it's about informing the public who in their neighborhood (or on certain forums...) have a sexual inclination towards children and shouldn't be associating with them. I think the system misjudges now and then with regard to age discrepancies (particularly for relationships that are long-term but "become" technically illegal) but there's an extremely valid reason it exists.

Everyone goes on what is more or less the same registry, don't they? Unless I'm mistaken, a person convicted of indecent exposure for streaking in college goes on the same list as the child molesters. As for why it exists, I don't think it's about warning the community. Like MacArthur said, there are no registries for worse crimes like murder or torture, etc. I'm pretty tough on violent crime, though, so I'm not losing any sleep over it, though I do think it should be restricted to only sexually violent offenders so that no ordinary criminals get lumped in with the worst of the worst.

Ultimately, I just think it's hilarious that both candidates worked with the same child molester so they can't criticize each other over it. We should all set aside our differences and appreciate the humor in that.

[DaleCooper]

I don't want to derail the thread any further, I'll just say that the reason we have a sex offender registry and not a murder registry is that the former have much higher recidivism rates. And murders are more personal; most murderers do not get a thrill from killing people. A person who is attracted to children cannot be cured of that. It is on them to do what ever necessary to not give in to those temptations, and that way they won't end up on the list.

I do agree the sex offender registry should be restructured and reserved for the "obvious" offenders, because it is a permanent mark and due process matters especially in cases like this. But for the same reason I don't want violent criminals having access to guns, I don't want pedophiles having access to children.

Oh, let me rephrase my earlier criticism. I completely agree that there should be a registry to make sure that pedophiles or sexually violent offenders don't get hired by or move in next to schools or whatever. The only thing I'm a bit uncomfortable with is it being a public registry. I'm also opposed to perp walks and any other law enforcement activity that seems to be centered more around public humiliation than justice. But then again, making it so that only sexually violent or contact offenses (or whatever the legal term is) are on the registry would get rid of a lot of my concerns about non-dangerous or lesser criminals getting disproportionate punishment.

[DaleCooper]

She probably just didn't know. It's not healthy to do extensive background checks on every person you associate with to make sure they aren't a criminal.

I don't want to start an irrelevant debate, but for the record I would like to know if progressives are starting to change their opinions on reintegrating violent criminals into society. I've been lectured so many times by left-wingers for not being forgiving enough to ruthless criminals so I'm curious if the prominent progressive opinion on this is changing.

[DaleCooper]

I don't feel like doing an effort post just yet but a Republican winning an NE-01 special election in a Biden midterm by about 4 points is goddamn pathetic and Republicans in these types of suburban seats should be scared by this.

I'm not changing any of my predictions based on this, but this is a reminder to people here not to pretend that the elements of Trump realignment that benefit Democrats are on hold or reversing just because Trump is gone for now.

[DaleCooper]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

When an incumbent resigns in disgrace, these off-cycle specials tend to go worse than the fundamentals suggest for the incumbent party.

See CA-25 (2020), NY-27 (2020), PA-18 (2018), NY-9 (2011), etc.

I doubt Fortenberry's resignation is too big of a deal here, to be honest. I think it's just that Lincoln is a growing college city full of suburban high propensity voters that lean Democrat these days. If this special had been because of him resigning due to personal tragedy or something apolitical I don't think it would've turned out much different.

[DaleCooper]

I dozed off after work today so I missed the initial counting after polls closed. After I'd been up for a bit I remembered to check and before looking I guessed that it would be an R victory by around about 15, maybe a point or two less. I would've guessed that holding Republicans to 10 would be an enormous upset.

Not that I'm an expert or anything, but that's just to give you an idea of what I was expecting and how much of a surprise this was for me.

[DaleCooper]

Looks like the final result will be about 7%, but that's still terrible for Republicans and way less than I ever would've guessed.

[DaleCooper]

Let's not project too much with this result. I don't think NE-01 is representative of the nation at large. This is a district that House Republicans won by 40 points in 2016, 22 in 2020, and now less than 7 in this 2022 special election. This is a district that congressional Republicans used to outperform GOP presidential candidates in and with the death of ticket splitting, that was always going to change no matter how tough Biden's midterm will be. There are specific Republicans that should be scared of this, like ones representing suburban districts or candidates like Dr. Oz who think they're going to over-perform in the the suburbs. That's still something that can be a game-changer in the future, but it's not going to be a uniform swing.