2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

So is no one else concerned about those voters Trump GAINED in Guam?

I'm literally shaking.

[DaleCooper]

WTF is happening with Decision Desk in Georgia?

What do you mean?

It's saying 99% of the vote in on their website. Is it a misentry?

That has to be a mistake. I thought that Atlanta couldn't resume counting until 10 am?

[DaleCooper]

I was a bit uneasy about Fox's projection of Arizona but after they defended it and the AP projected it, I'm confident that they're certain Biden won there.

[DaleCooper]

Should we worry about NV ?

I'm worried about this too. Is it true that it's just Clark County mail-in ballots yet to be counted? I would think that'd break towards Biden.

[DaleCooper]

Should we worry about NV ?

I'm worried about this too. Is it true that it's just Clark County mail-in ballots yet to be counted? I would think that'd break towards Biden.

Ralston says it is. We’re fine.

He said it's too close to call, I thought.

[DaleCooper]

Can somebody give me an unbiased, unemotional overview of the situation in Nevada right now? I'm feeling worried about it but I'm not entirely sure what's going on there.

[DaleCooper]

So is Green Bay in Brown County essentially all that's left to report in Wisconsin? Is it mostly mail in votes?

[DaleCooper]

Is there any way Trump can retake the lead in Wisconsin given what's left?

[DaleCooper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but its almost a certainty that Biden is getting at least a comfortable majority of the outstanding Nevada mail ballots, right?

[DaleCooper]

I don't want to jinx us, but if Trump is only 60,000 ahead in Michigan with 17% of mostly mail-in votes to count then Michigan shouldn't end up being all that terribly close.

[DaleCooper]

What's taking so long in Green Bay? What should we expect from them? They seem to be the only place that we haven't gotten any idea of yet in terms of results.

[DaleCooper]

So, do the Green Bay numbers mean that Trump is basically out of votes in Wisconsin?

[DaleCooper]

So, do the Green Bay numbers mean that Trump is basically out of votes in Wisconsin?

Yeah everything except Richland (which Biden also probably wins on their outstanding ballots) in terms of what is left to be counted.

So there's Richland, a little bit of Eau Claire and Milwaukee, and then the Biden gains from Kenosha that're for some reason taking forever to get released?

[DaleCooper]

So, do the Green Bay numbers mean that Trump is basically out of votes in Wisconsin?

Yeah everything except Richland (which Biden also probably wins on their outstanding ballots) in terms of what is left to be counted.

So there's Richland, a little bit of Eau Claire and Milwaukee, and then the Biden gains from Kenosha that're for some reason taking forever to get released?

Eau Claire is likely done based on their county website. Milwaukee also seems effectively done.

Ah, I see. NYT is being a bit strange then, because it's listing them as 93% and 98% (but not >98%) respectively.

[DaleCooper]

Will Biden break 50% in Wisconsin? NYT is saying that there is still 8% of the vote left to report.

[DaleCooper]

The New York Times hilariously has Peters winning Genesee County while Biden loses it. I'm assuming that's an error.

[DaleCooper]

Anyone know what the deal with AZ is too? How much is out and why are people questioning the call even though Fox and AP already did?

People are skeptical of how much mail-in votes are left, I guess. Fox is insistent on it and AP called it too so I don't think Trump's going to come back there. I hope not, anyway.

[DaleCooper]

Nate Cohn also brings up a good point - we don't know if the results in PA (or the anticipated ones) include any ballots in a drop box yesterday too, or if those are being counted/processed today.

I would assume that's today since those are basically mail-in votes as well for all intents and purposes.

[DaleCooper]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.

Clearly it is a combination of state-specific issues as well as polls struggling with presidential election years.

[DaleCooper]

Not to turn this thread into a re-litigation of the polls, but I think a big part of it is that it's harder to reach people these days and get a representative sample.

[DaleCooper]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

Are 1.4 million (give or take) absentee votes they're talking about all currently submitted, or does that include estimates of the 3-day grace period vote?

[DaleCooper]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

Are 1.4 million (give or take) absentee votes they're talking about all currently submitted, or does that include estimates of the 3-day grace period vote?

That's the thing - not sure. It doesn't appear if anyone knows if the 1.4 million total *right now* includes anything from the dropboxes, or anything that might show up in the next 3 days...

Actually, didn't we find out that the Pennsylvania Secretary of State ordered that all absentees that show up on or before election day be counted and kept separately as evidence that they were from before the grace period in case of litigation? I'm guessing that it doesn't include the late ballots for that reason. Also, how would they include them in their count if they don't know if they have them yet?

[DaleCooper]

I just woke up and am pissed.  Stayed up till 3am and it was looking like a Trump win.  So close yet so far!!!!!

It looks like you deserve credit for predicting the 290 map. Seems like that's where we're headed now, depending on what happens in Georgia.

[DaleCooper]

Morning everyone!

Didn't have much sleep tonight. Well, what can I say? Something we can all agree upon I think: The biggest loser of this election is, by far, polling industry. Maybe Trafalgar and Rassy were on something, I dunno. But the errors, aside from Selzer, are mind boggling. They're more off than in 2016, despite assurances to have improved from last time. Whatever they have done, it didn't work.

Dems definitely have to make an in-dept autopsy, even if Biden wins the WH, which is entirely possible. Hispanics, even non-Cuban, haven't been as strong as expected. I'm not sure this is just attributed to Biden himself. NM-SEN is much closer than it should be. It's closer than CO, which I didn't see coming at all. Generally, these downballot results are weird. It's not a Blue Wave, more of a wash. In the end, I think Pelosi and Schumer have to go during the next congress.

I agree. I've been thinking for a long time that the Democratic Party and most of its state parties would benefit from a rebranding of sorts. I think this would help a lot even in solidly Republican states.

[DaleCooper]

I wish NYT had their needle on all the swing states.

With the exception of Georgia, they picked the wrong states to put a needle on.

I think it made sense for them to choose FL, GA and NC. They count relatively fast, and a clear Biden win in 2 of 3 would have meant that they could call the election early.

I guess I just don't see why they didn't do it for all the swing states.  Why just choose three?

They must've underestimated how fast the vote would come in in MI and WI.