FL-Florida Atlantic University: Biden +3 (or tie)

[DaleCooper]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

[DaleCooper]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

Place much more stock in a tied topline than a crosstab suggesting trouble. Please.

It isn't one crosstab. 65+ voters preferring Biden nationwide (and in Florida) is backed up by lots of data for months now, and it's consistent even as the race has seemed to drift around a bit as news stories came and went. Putting this individual poll aside, my point still stands broadly speaking: if Biden actually is winning among senior citizens, then Trump isn't winning Florida.