NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI

[DaleCooper]

Sounds like Cohn himself has some doubts about NH polling, but this is about what I expected, though I'll admit that that Wisconsin number gives me PTSD. Hopefully we're done with the tossup Minnesota meme, at least.

[DaleCooper]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304740486062759937

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304746758082265088

Right, that's what I'm saying. There is no weighting, so this is a straight Trump +6 self reported sample. Their June poll was a self-reported Trump +1 sample. So them acting surprised that Biden dropped from the previous poll is rich considering the sample is obviously more predisposed to Trump.

The only self-reported vote ID of any of these states that was accurate was the NH poll.

Do they really not weight for that at all? That might explain the relatively high fixation on law & order in these polls, but it's funny that Trump is even losing on that issue.

[DaleCooper]

I can understand not taking people's recalled 2016 vote at face value, but it seems to me that a +6 self-identified Trump-voter sample would skew the results pretty heavily when the state in question was practically a statistical tie in 2016.

[DaleCooper]

There are several good reading comprehension courses online.  They may help you.

But if he wasn't poorly educated then Trump wouldn't love him anymore.

[DaleCooper]

I'm not worried about Nevada. Biden is actually doing much better than Hillary's polling, if I'm remembering correctly she was barely favored to win. Biden being +5 on average in the state is very very good.