There is something screwy about polling.
In 2018, the last several polls added on this forum for Ohio Governor were the following:
Cordray +1
Cordray +3
Cordray +5
TIE
TIE
Cordray+4
Cordray+5
Actual results:
DEWINE +4
Those polls were 4-9 points too democrat.
Same thing for Florida Governor.
Gillum +4
Gillum +1
Gillum +2
Gillum +2
Gillum +5
Gillum +7
Gillum +4
DeSantis +3
Actual results:
DESANTIS +0.5
Iowa Governor's race, same thing.
Hubbell +5
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +4
Reynolds +4
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +2
Hubbell +3
Actual results:
REYNOLDS +3
I could go on and on. My point is, there does seem to be a bias against Republican vote. I don't know if they weight too heavily on education, or if they poll too many big cities (You call 1,000 people in Columbus, Cleveland and Akron you're gonna get a ton of African Americans and college kids who hate Trump, that isn't representative of the entire state).
There were 35 Senate elections, 36 gubernatorial elections, and 435 House elections in 2018. Polling errors in three of those elections (none of which were in states that are a necessity for the Democratic candidate to win the EC) do not mean that 2020 is going to be a repeat of 2016.
