PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[zoz]

I didn't see too much of it but it seemed like the Republican primary Newsmax debate was asking better (or at least more interesting) questions than the debate two weeks back which was surprising. I have no idea who won, will have to watch it later if possible. Anyone else watch?

[zoz]

Oz got booed early on, but by the time Trump actually got on stage everyone was cheering for him (or at least not booing)

[zoz]

What counties will Lamb win in the primary?

I'm going to say a few in southwest PA (think his old district; Washington, Greene, etc.) and maybe Lackawanna or another county like that in the east

[zoz]

Not that this really means much, but I drove from one end of the state to the other yesterday and didn't see a single Oz yard sign. On the contrary, there were plenty of McCormick and Barnette signs around

[zoz]

Going to make some specific predictions (I'm willing to take the risk of this being entirely wrong lol, anything can happen today as far as we know)

Oz: 32%
Barnette: 30%
McCormick: 26%
Sands: 5%
Bartos: 5%
Other: 2%

In terms of the county map, Barnette will likely sweep the rural areas in the center of the state. She could win Montgomery as well, and Philadelphia may not be off the table either.

McCormick will probably win Allegheny and some other western counties due to the geographic nature of PA's primaries as well as perhaps Columbia and Luzerne or some others in NEPA. Chester or another SEPA suburban county may fall in behind him as well.

Oz will do best in eastern PA in some suburban/exurban counties but his Trump endorsement could be enough to give him a few scattered counties in central/western PA. His wins in larger counties as well as second place finishes across the state are enough for him to squeak by.

[zoz]

Suddenly the "America First, Pro-Trump principled MAGA candidate" is pulling out the Democrat playbook to have illegal ballots counted, almost as if he wasn't an America first, principled MAGA conservative all along. Curious.