What do you make of the Swing towards Trump in San Francisco?

[perpetual_cynic]

What do you make of the swing towards Trump in San Francisco?

[perpetual_cynic]

A bit disappointed to see where the R swing mostly came from, but I wouldn't worry about it if it was mostly from low-propensity voters. I'm not at all surprised that there was a R swing, SF is beyond maxxed out for the Dems lol

It is so interesting how Seattle lurched further left than San Francisco and Portland is approaching that benchmark.

[perpetual_cynic]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

[perpetual_cynic]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

NYC swings probably have some Hasadic influence to them.

The turnout of Hasidic neighborhoods in Brooklyn was extremely high. The overwhelmingly Hasidic neighborhoods were so overwhelmingly for Trump that some precincts reported >99% Trump. Rockland County, north of NYC, swung rightward almost entirely because of the Hasidic Jews near Kaser.

[perpetual_cynic]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

NYC swings probably have some Hasadic influence to them.

The turnout of Hasidic neighborhoods in Brooklyn was extremely high. The overwhelmingly Hasidic neighborhoods were so overwhelmingly for Trump that some precincts reported >99% Trump. Rockland County, north of NYC, swung rightward almost entirely because of the Hasidic Jews near Kaser.

I wonder the "voter fraud" people`wont look there

Haha. Oh well, we all know the answer to that question. The "voter fraud" people are looking for the voter "fraud" in their mind, which is voting, en masse, for the opposing candidate.

[perpetual_cynic]

The 3-4 neighborhoods with the biggest R swings are all in the south/southeastern corner of the city/county and are heavily Asian (Chinese/Filipino). I remember my friend who was living in SF in 2019 said Excelsior had the highest percentage of Trump 2016 voters.

I’m guessing Biden’s raw vote totals increased from 2016 everywhere due to greater turnout, even where the D % of the vote decreased.

Did you notice the trend that the more educated/wealthy the Adian/Hispanic area in California, the less of a swing to Trump?

[perpetual_cynic]

Trump only managed to improve 3.5 points on his 2016 performance at the same time that Biden also managed to register the highest Democratic vote share ever in the city. Asians swung rightward, but you could have already gleaned that from other areas throughout the country.

There isn't much in the way of noteworthy takeaways, really.

I am amazed how, just across the bay, in Oakland, the margins have been so consistent, within one-half of one percent of each other in the last four elections.