What do you make of the Swing towards Trump in San Francisco?

[perpetual_cynic]

What do you make of the swing towards Trump in San Francisco?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Noise from higher turnout. To me that's true of most of the 2020 election, save for seismic shifts like in Miami-Dade and the Rio Grande Valley.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Trump only managed to improve 3.5 points on his 2016 performance at the same time that Biden also managed to register the highest Democratic vote share ever in the city. Asians swung rightward, but you could have already gleaned that from other areas throughout the country.

There isn't much in the way of noteworthy takeaways, really.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

A bit disappointed to see where the R swing mostly came from, but I wouldn't worry about it if it was mostly from low-propensity voters. I'm not at all surprised that there was a R swing, SF is beyond maxxed out for the Dems lol

[perpetual_cynic]

A bit disappointed to see where the R swing mostly came from, but I wouldn't worry about it if it was mostly from low-propensity voters. I'm not at all surprised that there was a R swing, SF is beyond maxxed out for the Dems lol

It is so interesting how Seattle lurched further left than San Francisco and Portland is approaching that benchmark.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

A bit disappointed to see where the R swing mostly came from, but I wouldn't worry about it if it was mostly from low-propensity voters. I'm not at all surprised that there was a R swing, SF is beyond maxxed out for the Dems lol

It is so interesting how Seattle lurched further left than San Francisco and Portland is approaching that benchmark.

Not sure about the degree/duration of Dem dominance, but San Francisco proper definitely has bigger problems with homelessness and housing affordability than either Seattle or Portland.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

[Bootes Void]

people in San Francisco have gotten tired of the woke craziness that has taken over

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

people in San Francisco have gotten tired of the woke craziness that has taken over

That's why Trump got the third-worst* percentage for a Republican and Biden got the highest percentage for a presidential candidate in San Francisco history?

*Technically second-worst since Taft wasn't on the ballot in 1912.


EDIT: Sorry, I just don't see how San Franciscians expressed their frustrations of leftist wokeness by giving the leftist candidate a higher percentage than any other presidential candidate in their history.

[Bootes Void]

people in San Francisco have gotten tired of the woke craziness that has taken over

That's why Biden got the highest percentage for a presidential candidate in San Francisco history?

Then what's the point of this thread?

[Lord Admirale]

Democrats' numbers with minorities are bottoming out, which was always going to happen as America continues diversifying.

[Hope For A New Era]

dead cat bounce

[perpetual_cynic]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

The NYC swings are also overblown.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

NYC swings probably have some Hasadic influence to them.

[perpetual_cynic]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

NYC swings probably have some Hasadic influence to them.

The turnout of Hasidic neighborhoods in Brooklyn was extremely high. The overwhelmingly Hasidic neighborhoods were so overwhelmingly for Trump that some precincts reported >99% Trump. Rockland County, north of NYC, swung rightward almost entirely because of the Hasidic Jews near Kaser.

[Bootes Void]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

NYC swings probably have some Hasadic influence to them.

The turnout of Hasidic neighborhoods in Brooklyn was extremely high. The overwhelmingly Hasidic neighborhoods were so overwhelmingly for Trump that some precincts reported >99% Trump. Rockland County, north of NYC, swung rightward almost entirely because of the Hasidic Jews near Kaser.

I wonder the "voter fraud" people`wont look there

[perpetual_cynic]

I make of it the same that I do of the Trump swing in Los Angeles County. A nothing-burger when you look at Biden's record performance.

Biden had the highest percentage of any candidate in SF with the second-biggest margin in SF history against a candidate who had the second-worst percentage for a runner-up. The only runner-up who did worse than Trump 2020 was Trump 2016.

The swings in California are some of the most overblown takeaways from 2020.

I find this to be increasingly problematic with columnists who want to compare NYC swings to LA Swings. Trump had the second-lowest percentage in modern history in LA County and Biden the second-best. In NYC, Biden had the worst Dem performance since Kerry '04. I wonder, to what extent, is incumbency in the results with Hispanics. Obama performed better with Hispanics in 2012 than 2008 in NYC, as well as Bush 2004 compared to 2000, and now Trump.

NYC swings probably have some Hasadic influence to them.

The turnout of Hasidic neighborhoods in Brooklyn was extremely high. The overwhelmingly Hasidic neighborhoods were so overwhelmingly for Trump that some precincts reported >99% Trump. Rockland County, north of NYC, swung rightward almost entirely because of the Hasidic Jews near Kaser.

I wonder the "voter fraud" people`wont look there

Haha. Oh well, we all know the answer to that question. The "voter fraud" people are looking for the voter "fraud" in their mind, which is voting, en masse, for the opposing candidate.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the San Francisco neighborhood results from 2016-2020 (write-ins included in both), going from largest Trump swings to largest Biden swings. Not knowing that much about San Francisco or its neighborhoods, I hope our California avatars can help shed some light on these results.

VISITACION VALLEY
2016: Clinton 80.86% — Trump 13.82% = D+ 67.04
2020: Biden 74.14% — Trump 23.51% = D+ 50.63
SWING: R+ 16.41

BAYVIEW/HUNTERS POINT
2016: Clinton 85.40% — Trump 9.29% = D+ 76.11
2020: Biden 81.46% — Trump 15.93% = D+ 65.53
SWING: R+ 10.58

INGLESIDE
2016: Clinton 82.42% — Trump 11.13% = D+ 71.29
2020: Biden 79.85% — Trump 18.10% = D+ 61.75
SWING: R+ 09.54

EXCELSIOR (OUTER MISSION)
2016: Clinton 80.38% — Trump 13.60% = D+ 66.78
2020: Biden 77.55% — Trump 20.29% = D+ 57.26
SWING: R+ 09.52

PORTOLA
2016: Clinton 79.34% — Trump 14.67% = D+ 64.67
2020: Biden 76.82% — Trump 21.01% = D+ 55.81
SWING: R+ 08.86

CIVIC CENTER/DOWNTOWN
2016: Clinton 83.52% — Trump 9.17% = D+ 74.35
2020: Biden 82.58% — Trump 14.60% = D+ 67.98
SWING: R+ 06.37

LAKE MERCED
2016: Clinton 77.12% — Trump 15.63% = D+ 61.49
2020: Biden 76.86% — Trump 21.33% = D+ 55.53
SWING: R+ 05.96

SUNSET
2016: Clinton 77.73% — Trump 15.37% = D+ 62.36
2020: Biden 78.27% — Trump 19.59% = D+ 58.68
SWING: R+ 03.68

CHINATOWN
2016: Clinton 83.85% — Trump 9.59% = D+ 74.26
2020: Biden 84.35% — Trump 13.68% = D+ 70.67
SWING: R+ 03.59

SOUTH OF MARKET
2016: Clinton 84.95% — Trump 8.31% = D+ 76.64
2020: Biden 85.84% — Trump 11.83% = D+ 74.01
SWING: R+ 02.63

RICHMOND
2016: Clinton 81.21% — Trump 12.07% = D+ 69.14
2020: Biden 82.71% — Trump 15.20% = D+ 67.51
SWING: R+ 01.63

POTRERO HILL
2016: Clinton 89.56% — Trump 4.82% = D+ 84.74
2020: Biden 90.59% — Trump 7.42% = D+ 83.17
SWING: R+ 01.57

MISSION
2016: Clinton 89.34% — Trump 4.11% = D+ 85.23
2020: Biden 90.79% — Trump 7.00% = D+ 83.79
SWING: R+ 01.44

WESTERN ADDITION
2016: Clinton 89.16% — Trump 5.04% = D+ 84.12
2020: Biden 90.45% — Trump 7.74% = D+ 82.71
SWING: R+ 01.41

SOUTH BERNAL HEIGHTS
2016: Clinton 89.23% — Trump 5.28% = D+ 83.95
2020: Biden 90.58% — Trump 7.74% = D+ 82.84
SWING: R+ 01.11

NORTH EMBARCADERO
2016: Clinton 82.65% — Trump 10.25% = D+ 72.40
2020: Biden 84.67% — Trump 13.20% = D+ 71.47
SWING: R+ 00.93

DIAMOND HEIGHTS
2016: Clinton 88.49% — Trump 6.90% = D+ 81.59
2020: Biden 90.11% — Trump 8.32% = D+ 81.79
SWING: D+ 00.20

INNER SUNSET
2016: Clinton 87.61% — Trump 5.96% = D+ 81.65
2020: Biden 90.02% — Trump 8.09% = D+ 81.93
SWING: D+ 00.28

NORTH BERNAL HEIGHTS
2016: Clinton 90.50% — Stein 3.67% — Trump 3.54% = D+ 86.96
2020: Biden 93.18% — Trump 5.09% = D+ 88.09
SWING: D+ 01.13

UPPER MARKET/EUREKA VALLEY
2016: Clinton 92.52% — Trump 3.04% = D+ 89.48
2020: Biden 94.73% — Trump 3.81% = D+ 90.92
SWING: D+ 01.44

NOE VALLEY
2016: Clinton 90.80% — Trump 4.26% = D+ 86.54
2020: Biden 93.33% — Trump 5.01% = D+ 88.32
SWING: D+ 01.78

HAIGHT ASHBURY
2016: Clinton 91.01% — Trump 3.05% = D+ 87.96
2020: Biden 93.90% — Trump 3.95% = D+ 89.95
SWING: D+ 01.99

WEST OF TWIN PEAKS
2016: Clinton 79.86% — Trump 13.84% = D+ 66.02
2020: Biden 83.20% — Trump 15.16% = D+ 68.04
SWING: D+ 02.02

MARINA/PACIFIC HEIGHTS
2016: Clinton 82.50% — Trump 10.38% = D+ 72.12
2020: Biden 86.17% — Trump 11.93% = D+ 74.24
SWING: D+ 02.12

LAUREL HEIGHTS/ANZA VISTA
2016: Clinton 84.96% — Trump 8.34% = D+ 76.62
2020: Biden 88.68% — Trump 9.55% = D+ 79.13
SWING: D+ 02.51

SEA CLIFF/PRESIDIO HEIGHTS
2016: Clinton 82.01% — Trump 10.80% = D+ 71.21
2020: Biden 86.25% — Trump 11.97% = D+ 74.28
SWING: D+ 03.07

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The 3-4 neighborhoods with the biggest R swings are all in the south/southeastern corner of the city/county and are heavily Asian (Chinese/Filipino). I remember my friend who was living in SF in 2019 said Excelsior had the highest percentage of Trump 2016 voters.

I’m guessing Biden’s raw vote totals increased from 2016 everywhere due to greater turnout, even where the D % of the vote decreased.

[perpetual_cynic]

The 3-4 neighborhoods with the biggest R swings are all in the south/southeastern corner of the city/county and are heavily Asian (Chinese/Filipino). I remember my friend who was living in SF in 2019 said Excelsior had the highest percentage of Trump 2016 voters.

I’m guessing Biden’s raw vote totals increased from 2016 everywhere due to greater turnout, even where the D % of the vote decreased.

Did you notice the trend that the more educated/wealthy the Adian/Hispanic area in California, the less of a swing to Trump?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The 3-4 neighborhoods with the biggest R swings are all in the south/southeastern corner of the city/county and are heavily Asian (Chinese/Filipino). I remember my friend who was living in SF in 2019 said Excelsior had the highest percentage of Trump 2016 voters.

I’m guessing Biden’s raw vote totals increased from 2016 everywhere due to greater turnout, even where the D % of the vote decreased.

Did you notice the trend that the more educated/wealthy the Adian/Hispanic area in California, the less of a swing to Trump?

I’m not familiar enough with SF to make a call on that. But there’s more room for R’s to gain in poorer and less educated nonwhite areas, which are usually more D to begin with.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Probably from gains among Hispanics and Asians compared to 2016.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Dead cat bounce

Nothing to see here

[OSR stands with Israel]

The gains Trump made with minorities made me pretty happy and it was absolutely a good thing that racial polarization has decreased